Chinese semiconductor thread II

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Doesn't glass have silicon as one of its major elements?

Yes, glass is composed primarily of Silicon oxides. Silicon oxides occurs naturally in sand/quartz. Pure silicon does not occur naturally, and making pure crystalline silicon from quartz sand is a much more energy intensive and expensive process than making glass.

 

[GiantPanda]

Doesn't glass have silicon as one of its major elements?

Yes, glass is made from silica which is silicon bonded with oxygen.

 

[Maikeru]

FT article on increasingly desperate attempts by US to lean on "allies":

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[tokenanalyst]

In not an expert in marketing but I think saying "Ours" instead of "My" or in this case "US" will help your cause a little bit more, otherwise looks like that you asking others to sacrifice themselves for your own benefit. I don't know, crazy idea.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

FT article on increasingly desperate attempts by US to lean on "allies":

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U r assuming the allies don't like this. I actually think they do like this. They are as desperate to keep western and US dominance going and would do whatever it takes to further that goal. Japan is willing to sell itself if it means it can stop China from growing. Netherlands is also extremely pro-EU, pro-Nato, pro-US and anti-Russia. Its by default becoming more and more anti-China like the rest of the EU.

 

[ZeEa5KPul]

U r assuming the allies don't like this. I actually think they do like this. They are as desperate to keep western and US dominance going and would do whatever it takes to further that goal. Japan is willing to sell itself if it means it can stop China from growing. Netherlands is also extremely pro-EU, pro-Nato, pro-US and anti-Russia. Its by default becoming more and more anti-China like the rest of the EU.

Does it ultimately matter? The outcome is going to be the same no matter what the West does: Chinese self-sufficiency followed by Chinese dominance. The most they can do is shift the timeline by at most a few years.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

Does it ultimately matter? The outcome is going to be the same no matter what the West does: Chinese self-sufficiency followed by Chinese dominance. The most they can do is shift the timeline by at most a few years.

We sane people understand this. But do they? You can read articles in the MSM or read what people say in western discussion forums. Before Huawei mate 60, it was all about how China has lost the semi-conductor war, it has no hope of ever catching up without western tech, it cannot replicate the semi-conductor supply chain and so on. With Mate 60 they switched to China can never get EUV cause its magical technology that only ASML can make. They still think they can cripple China through semiconductor restrictions.

So, they will keep trying more and more restrictions. After EUV now they are restricting DUV. Next they will restrict all semiconductor machines regardless of how old tech it might be. They will try everything.

 

[tokenanalyst]

U r assuming the allies don't like this. I actually think they do like this. They are as desperate to keep western and US dominance going and would do whatever it takes to further that goal. Japan is willing to sell itself if it means it can stop China from growing. Netherlands is also extremely pro-EU, pro-Nato, pro-US and anti-Russia. Its by default becoming more and more anti-China like the rest of the EU.

The problem is not whatever the politicians are pro-this or pro-that, the problem is companies, maybe stooges like Alan Stevez and Gina they put plugs in their ears and ignore the calls and the begging of US semiconductors CEOs but in other countries I think is a pretty different story, I think the ASML drama in Holland was more about China than migrants, especially the part of ASML no being able to serve their own scanners and in Japan the country is not called Japan.Inc for no reason, is pretty much a corporatocracy, if they see their revenue falling or their see that Chinese companies are going to take their market share, they are going to cry and pretty loud. And even more when the see US companies making more revenue than them in China.

As the article said, they are doing it in way that allows them to sideline their own export controls at discretion.So the options for the stooges in D.C. is becoming pretty limited:

1-Overthrow the sovereignty of their own allies by telling them that their companies tools are under US. jurisdiction now.
The drawbacks will be:
-It will be a good way to create enemies in Allies countries.
-Enforcement will be almost impossible.
-The legality of the move is questionable even under US law.
-The worse of all, it could backfire as for example if Japan again have a beef against Korea, Japan could put US made tools using Japanese tech under their jurisdiction and ban it from being exported or serviced.

2- Create some sort of Ally export organization where from there they can control all exports.
The drawbacks will be:
-It could backfire as other countries could use this tool to block US exports to countries that they don't like. Like Japan to SK or UK to Argentina. That is why treaties like wassenaar arrangement are not legally binding because no state want to be subject to other state will not matter how friends they are.

 

[tokenanalyst]

When I said "under US jurisdiction" I said it under premise of D.C. stooges using arguments as stupid as "even if Tokyo Electron doesn't use any US components they are using Linux Kernel and that OS contains US code and therefore TEL tool falls under US Jurisdiction" using the most annoying voice ever and ignoring the fact that Linux contains code of all over the world including from China. Stupidity like that.

 

[FriedRiceNSpice]

Does it ultimately matter? The outcome is going to be the same no matter what the West does: Chinese self-sufficiency followed by Chinese dominance. The most they can do is shift the timeline by at most a few years.

Well, what are people in the West going to do once Chinese industries achieve dominance in everything? Hence the need to buy as much time as possible. The problem for the West is neither capital nor labor in the West want's to make the necessary sacrifices to reindustrialize, so unless something changes all the West can hope to do is delay the inevitable. How can the West hope to compete? China has a huge lead in the type of infrastructure and urban development necessary for hyper efficient industry. Even more importantly, China has a massive pool of highly educated, super hard working humans. I am pretty sure all elites in the West have realized that fact by now, which is why you see the united front against China.