Chinese semiconductor thread II

[horse]

The entire thing makes me really annoyed at HW. SMEE and now AMIES has done backend scanner well enough for over 500 deliveries. They are not that incompetent.

At the end of the day, there has to be some separation between the chip producers, equipment makers and OEMs. Having Huawei control everything critical is not good for the long term health of China's semiconductor industry.

The Chinese government should allow Huawei to do what it wants. In an unrestricted manner. That is how things get done. That is how good a company that is Huawei.

Huawei already has a competitor, that is ZTE who is a state owned company. This private company of Huawei beats the state owned company ZTE with a stick. ZTE cannot compete, the Chinese government gives them some contracts to not let Huawei be a total monopoly in telecom.

There is nothing against the rules of why Huawei should not be allow to beat others with a stick in semiconductors. They will get it done.

That is the history of Huawei. Ren Zhengfei said it best, when they started, they had to survive surrounded by giants, which were foreign companies and American companies. They do not know how to do business any other way.

If the others cannot compete, then they suck. That is the market.

What is one of the most interesting points, is that the top guy, Ren Zhengfei is CCP, he is a card carrying member of the Chinese communist party, just like Ma Yun.

So when we hear this talk of the CCP controlling people like Ren Zhengfei and Ma Yun, then I don't like it. Seems more like some political squabble then business.

Huawei went from selling telephone switches, to their own in-house designed telecom equipment which is the best in the world, then branched out to make the best inverter for the solar panel the best in the world again, then they had the top cell phone sales in the world before the US sanctions but now they have the best phone still with that folding phone, and now lately Huawei data center racks are the best in the world, another product!

If the Chinese government wants a semiconductor industry in China, just let Huawei do it.

Questions of monopoly power and market structure is something to address some other day.

In this tech war, play your best card, who happens to be run by a party member!

 

[Siffrin]

The Chinese government should allow Huawei to do what it wants. In an unrestricted manner. That is how things get done. That is how good a company that is Huawei.

Huawei already has a competitor, that is ZTE who is a state owned company. This private company of Huawei beats the state owned company ZTE with a stick. ZTE cannot compete, the Chinese government gives them some contracts to not let Huawei be a total monopoly in telecom.

There is nothing against the rules of why Huawei should not be allow to beat others with a stick in semiconductors. They will get it done.

That is the history of Huawei. Ren Zhengfei said it best, when they started, they had to survive surrounded by giants, which were foreign companies and American companies. They do not know how to do business any other way.

If the others cannot compete, then they suck. That is the market.

What is one of the most interesting points, is that the top guy, Ren Zhengfei is CCP, he is a card carrying member of the Chinese communist party, just like Ma Yun.

So when we hear this talk of the CCP controlling people like Ren Zhengfei and Ma Yun, then I don't like it. Seems more like some political squabble then business.

Huawei went from selling telephone switches, to their own in-house designed telecom equipment which is the best in the world, then branched out to make the best inverter for the solar panel the best in the world again, then they had the top cell phone sales in the world before the US sanctions but now they have the best phone still with that folding phone, and now lately Huawei data center racks are the best in the world, another product!

If the Chinese government wants a semiconductor industry in China, just let Huawei do it.

Questions of monopoly power and market structure is something to address some other day.

In this tech war, play your best card, who happens to be run by a party member!

Not a good idea for inspiring their own market - after all it will have to first be the Chinese tech giants purchasing homegrown chips before companies abroad, and they don't want to be supplying Huawei who is much more of a competitor in the short term in many areas than nvidia. You do have to give your own customers some thought.

 

[horse]

Not a good idea for inspiring their own market - after all it will have to first be the Chinese tech giants purchasing homegrown chips before companies abroad, and they don't want to be supplying Huawei who is much more of a competitor in the short term in many areas than nvidia. You do have to give your own customers some thought.

I don't understand what you are saying.

A market has supply and demand, right?

Let's limit this to just talking about high end chips required in data centers to do AI compute.

So there is demand for high end chips to be aggregated into server racks for AI mass computation.

Now where is the supply?

Well, Huawei has 910C in its rack, Nvidia has its Blackwell. The point is, there are very few suppliers, and given the temperament of the US government, supply will be banned from reaching China.

At this point, there is not much to think about.

They got to go to war with the army they have, not the army they wished they had.

---

Note, that is why I say like Huawei do everything. That will kick everyone's asses. Like what the boss, get to work!

Suppose competiting Chinese firms do not want to buy Huawei chips or whatever, due to competition is other areas.

The solution is simple, for the Chinese state.

Let Huawei do everything.

If Huawei has the best chip inside China, then Huawei will out-compete all those people who do not want to buy Huawei chips. (In those other businesses like software or data centers).

What is the Chinese government going to do?

Tell Huawei try not to be the world leader?

A hundred years ago, Ford revolutionized the world with their assembly line, they were that good.

TELSA launched all those satellites, with reusable rockets, they were that good.

BYD on its own changed the entire worldwide auto industry with their complete and total verticle integration of their supply chain, they were that good.

Huawei has a history of being that good with what they really want to get done. No point in getting in the way. That will not work.

Other Chinese companies have to learn how to compete, and how to survive. They are going against the best.

 

[pbd456]

If china does build euv, a single exposure wafer could then be used with subsequent layers with asml duvi to produce something akin to 7nm initially? And more sophisticated usage can do 5nm level chips?

 

[measuredingabens]

If china does build euv, a single exposure wafer could then be used with subsequent layers with asml duvi to produce something akin to 7nm initially? And more sophisticated usage can do 5nm level chips?

I think it's more likely they go straight to 5nm and lower level chips once they get EUV up and going.

 

[pbd456]

I think it's more likely they go straight to 5nm and lower level chips once they get EUV up and going.

I would expect there could be productivity issue initially, it took asml years to get it close to 200wph.

 

[jx191]

I would expect there could be productivity issue initially, it took asml years to get it close to 200wph.

Of course they won't be entering HVM immediately.
But even low level production of limited chips would be a huge deal. Not only would it signify a big achievement for China's tech industry as a whole, but the EUV would already be competitive when compared to China's existing processes such as ArFi and DUV, so even with productivity issues the EUV would still be worth it