Chinese semiconductor industry

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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
CATL and BYD are still battery leaders for EV and core suppliers for Chinese companies certainly and CATL was for Tesla until recently when Tesla revealed they will be using their in house developed battery and won't be relying on CATL.

Tesla's new batteries sound more impressive and of course they are newer than the latest from BYD and CATL.

So you're wrong in saying Tesla does not have battery technology. They've been working on it for years and have now delivered it and it is supposedly market leading in many aspects if not all.
Leave it man. don't you see that they irrationally hate Tesla and believe that Chinese companies dominate?...

Elon will go to Mars with SpaceX and these people would still be calling him a "fraud", "he just bought the company", "just invested some money, nothing more", "he is just full of hot air", "all bs" etc

They are forgetting though that Elon has saved US in 2 industries so far. EV and Space (great for military...) industries

Now Elon is going for a 3rd industry with his Neuralink starting human testing in a year (2, 3?)

"Muh Elon's First principles are bad!"

US should build a statue of him because he has singlehandedly saved the US in these 2 industries and he is now going for a 3rd

Ah and lets not forget Starlink for the rural pop in the US, another achievement
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Leave it man. don't you see that they irrationally hate Tesla and believe that Chinese companies dominate?...

Elon will go to Mars with SpaceX and these people would still be calling him a "fraud", "he just bought the company", "just invested some money, nothing more", "he is just full of hot air", "all bs" etc

They are forgetting though that Elon has saved US in 2 industries so far. EV and Space (great for military...) industries

Now Elon is going for a 3rd industry with his Neuralink starting human testing in a year (2, 3?)

"Muh Elon's First principles are bad!"

US should build a statue of him because he has singlehandedly saved the US in these 2 industries and he is now going for a 3rd

Ah and lets not forget Starlink for the rural pop in the US, another achievement

He's a crafty businessman who have noticed there are different ways of doing things. It's switching working models that's all. SpaceX is here after years and years of failures and step by step progress. It won lots of funding. It does things differently to NASA and the other major contractors used by NASA. I wouldn't attribute everything to Elon himself but it obviously wouldn't be possible without him. Or at least take some time.

He's offloaded plenty of failed ideas and things just had no chance of working until breakthroughs and economic problems associated are solved. SpaceX is successful here and now because the right amount of money have been thrown at the right people with the right organisation. It could be better of course but it could be also much worse. The US has a lot of talent and attract plenty abroad. In fact nowadays, a disproportionately high number of US tech industries is not only led by and founded by foreigners, they are run and worked by foreign borns and even foreign educated. Some industries it's nearly half. I'm saying SpaceX isn't a miracle and isn't that impressive considering it's major claim to awesomeness is its re-usable tech that it's pioneered into success further than anyone else has in the past. That's literally it. US space contractors have built the Saturn V and F1 engine. It's long had working capsules and space firsts that match the Soviets and Russians in impressiveness. The talent, institutions, organisation was always there along with the size of funding. SpaceX did not that much more than rebrand it all, and reorganised with "privately" driven goals rather than purely government ones - it wants to put people on Mars (apparently Elon's personal mission) and provide contracting service to public programs and missions.

So what's interesting with SpaceX is the incentive model being changed rather than its abilities and technology developed which of course is impressive. But the US was always impressive and mostly moving forward with impressive speeds, after Von Braun and Project Paperclip... and importing "the Martians".
 

voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
He's a crafty businessman who have noticed there are different ways of doing things. It's switching working models that's all. SpaceX is here after years and years of failures and step by step progress. It won lots of funding. It does things differently to NASA and the other major contractors used by NASA. I wouldn't attribute everything to Elon himself but it obviously wouldn't be possible without him. Or at least take some time.

He's offloaded plenty of failed ideas and things just had no chance of working until breakthroughs and economic problems associated are solved. SpaceX is successful here and now because the right amount of money have been thrown at the right people with the right organisation. It could be better of course but it could be also much worse. The US has a lot of talent and attract plenty abroad. In fact nowadays, a disproportionately high number of US tech industries is not only led by and founded by foreigners, they are run and worked by foreign borns and even foreign educated. Some industries it's nearly half. I'm saying SpaceX isn't a miracle and isn't that impressive considering it's major claim to awesomeness is its re-usable tech that it's pioneered into success further than anyone else has in the past. That's literally it. US space contractors have built the Saturn V and F1 engine. It's long had working capsules and space firsts that match the Soviets and Russians in impressiveness. The talent, institutions, organisation was always there along with the size of funding. SpaceX did not that much more than rebrand it all, and reorganised with "privately" driven goals rather than purely government ones - it wants to put people on Mars (apparently Elon's personal mission) and provide contracting service to public programs and missions.

So what's interesting with SpaceX is the incentive model being changed rather than its abilities and technology developed which of course is impressive. But the US was always impressive and mostly moving forward with impressive speeds, after Von Braun and Project Paperclip... and importing "the Martians".
A lot of technologies are stored away in some labs or kept out due to noone using them

Elon is great on taking these "old" technologies who noone wanted to pour money into commercialising, then brand it (marketing) then with that branding attract worldclass talent and then pouring money into these businesses as long as it needed. It also helps that he is engineer and he was even leading the engineering when they were designing the first Falcon rocket.

And he still kept the "Chief Engineer" title on SpaceX. AFAIK he is very involved on designing the Starship program.

Now find me a Chinese billionaire who is actively working for China and trying to break western "chokeholds" on various industries...

They are hoarding billions and dont move a finger to help China achieve its goals

Elon threw millions and millions into SpaceX with slim chances of succeeding (he said that he thought he had 10% chance of succeeding).
So where all these Chinese billionaires throwing money into IC, Aircraft, Brain Interface Devices (?) etc ?

They are all sitting at their thumbs and waiting for the Gov to throw some subsidies, make some half-hearted effort and then pocket the money

The Chinese Gov has been begging for domestic IC tech development for decades. Where were all these "very patriotic" billionaires while China needed IC tech

Xi should slap them a lot more in order to get some interest back on the behalf of the people
 

hashtagpls

Senior Member
Registered Member
Elon Musk and Tesla, Amazon and space are really just the natural evolution of america's capitalist system; rather than having USG fund NASA which was purposely underfunded and crippled throughout the past 20 years, the US elites thought better to privatise space travel and invest in Musk and Space X
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
A lot of technologies are stored away in some labs or kept out due to noone using them

Elon is great on taking these "old" technologies who noone wanted to pour money into commercialising, then brand it (marketing) then with that branding attract worldclass talent and then pouring money into these businesses as long as it needed. It also helps that he is engineer and he was even leading the engineering when they were designing the first Falcon rocket.

And he still kept the "Chief Engineer" title on SpaceX. AFAIK he is very involved on designing the Starship program.

Now find me a Chinese billionaire who is actively working for China and trying to break western "chokeholds" on various industries...

They are hoarding billions and dont move a finger to help China achieve its goals

Elon threw millions and millions into SpaceX with slim chances of succeeding (he said that he thought he had 10% chance of succeeding).
So where all these Chinese billionaires throwing money into IC, Aircraft, Brain Interface Devices (?) etc ?

They are all sitting at their thumbs and waiting for the Gov to throw some subsidies, make some half-hearted effort and then pocket the money

The Chinese Gov has been begging for domestic IC tech development for decades. Where were all these "very patriotic" billionaires while China needed IC tech

Xi should slap them a lot more in order to get some interest back on the behalf of the people

This is because China doesn't (still not really) use the private enterprise kind of model for many of those technical fields. The government in China with public institutions and academic organisations do those things like IC, aircraft, space etc. Only recently have they started considering allowing private enterprise and introducing different incentive mechanisms in. In the past, there wasn't enough capital and consumer power to motivate and move. You are only appreciating single dimensions of this question when you talk about the layered question.

Chinese billionaires haven't in the past been involved in Chinese tech projects quite as much as someone like Elon Musk. There are many reasons for this. This is already untrue now as plenty of Chinese billionaires have been partially responsible for creating everything from the dozens of consumer brands Chinese (and many Asian) peoples will know to IC enterprises. Maybe the government has been responsible for the vast majority of the progress and achievements but that's slowly changing as China builds a consumer market that's increasingly looking inwards and finally has enough capital to "risk". You can't ask a poor man to gamble 10% of his net worth on pet projects with 10% expected success right? But you can expect a rich man to gamble 10% because 90% for the poor man is enough for him to live out the next year maybe while the 90% for the rich man means he'll need to slow down on buying mansions in Monaco. You see the nominal difference behind those same numbers?

China also has a very different sort of internal politics when it comes to billionaire and capitalist class compared to the US. This has obviously got some influence on how this class shapes society and participates in the science and tech field but it doesn't necessarily hamper it like westerners sometimes believe dogmatically. Capitalism actually isn't absolutely necessary for innovation and progress even though it is often quite conducive to in early stages. Eventually it becomes rotten. A better long term solution to the incentive model could involve alternative approaches that may not shine so bright initially but eventually take you to higher peaks.

So basically you're wrong that Chinese billionaires aren't involved. Not all Chinese tech businesses are state run. There are even private space businesses starting up that are no less impressive than how SpaceX started out. China just runs a different model. The state sometimes might step in to hold you up at different stages compared to how it works in the US. Even if none of that were true, it isn't even absolutely necessary to have billionaires lead anything for space or any other field for that matter. The US was always ahead of China in space. It's not because of Elon Musk.

So taking that logic a step further, it's like saying well US landed on Mars in the 1970s (iirc) which is 50 years before China. Well China in the 1970s could barely produce a washing machine if even that... probably much less capable. You can't measure dynamic things with snapshot comparisons. Starts should be accounted for, rates of progress etc. At one point in history the US was a nothing power compared to any major European nation. At some point, England/France/Germany weren't nations when China had mathematics textbooks explaining linear algebra (the equivalent in a different mathematical language), building calibrated mechanical astronomical clocks, making crossbows and using gunpowder.

The more lucid comparison would be to measure how long it took (and how much money it spent) going from first satellite launched to first space walk or first human in space to first rover landing on another planet etc. Then recalibrate with considerations for desire to perform a certain task, political influence/backing etc etc. Did billionaires directly make Apollo missions deliver those successes? Did they invest to build the Saturn V? Did they build China's HSR network? It's simply not a question of "are my billionaires doing me proud" even though it often is like that, it's simply not a necessity when there are so many other elements involved and can access their share of funding and incentives.

What you're doing in your judgement of China's billionaires and its incentive structures now is basically like judging the cultural revolution during its worst phase and expecting immediate results like it has to turn China into the perfect utopia with abundant wealth pretty much overnight as opposed to understanding it inherited a deeply wrong system with deeply ingrained social problems that would need to take many generation to begin correcting and setting a path. Likewise, if China's state run space operations have the same funding and access to international talents like the US and SpaceX has, it may even do better than SpaceX has been doing, under an state run authoritarian program. Who knows. If anything, that's exactly how it is like since China's programs have a fraction of the funding (until CPC see even more promise and results than already given) and not near the same level of industrial experience in this field compared to US. Yet it is achieving well beyond under equal measure.
 
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voyager1

Captain
Registered Member
SMIC dismisses any talk about graphene chips replacing silicon any time soon
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(Google translate)
SMIC also said that at this stage, the possibility of "overtaking in corners" with graphene wafers is not high.
At present, although China's carbon-based chip research ranks among the top in the world, it is still at the laboratory stage. From the laboratory to the formal use, there is a huge gap.
 

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not about patriotism. It's about money and especially personality. Personality is mostly formed from environment and experience. The typical environment and experience of China's population before 2000 was that China was backward and had a lot to learn from the developed countries and a looong way to go. There are studies that discuss this phenomenon as it relates to success and failure. This mentality guides peoples decisions on whether to study abroad and stay abroad, whether to invest in R&D or copy products, whether they believe wholesale in globalization or invest in themselves and their companies or country. It's only during the last 15-20 years where this started to change dramatically, especially the last 5 years. Believe you me, in the coming 10-15 years, this self confident mentality is going to get stronger, MUCH MUCH stronger. As this thinking and mentality becomes not just prevalent but dominant in China, it will translate into a different kind of China with its own Elon Musk's and then you will see this reflected in China as a nation.
The above is exactly the point I was making when I responded back to Voyager.

The industry titans of China mostly grew up in the 50s and 60s, and those experiences and challenges molded their personalities.

I think the post 80s and post 00's would mostly alleviate those issues when they rise to position of power.

We are also seeing this in military leadership front. I think Xi is trying to accelerate the promotion of those who got their commission in the 00 and 10s to brigade and division leadership. Most of the flag grades got their commission in the 90s and were ruined by the business culture permeating PLA at the time.
 

Tyler

Captain
Registered Member
Leave it man. don't you see that they irrationally hate Tesla and believe that Chinese companies dominate?...

Elon will go to Mars with SpaceX and these people would still be calling him a "fraud", "he just bought the company", "just invested some money, nothing more", "he is just full of hot air", "all bs" etc

They are forgetting though that Elon has saved US in 2 industries so far. EV and Space (great for military...) industries

Now Elon is going for a 3rd industry with his Neuralink starting human testing in a year (2, 3?)

"Muh Elon's First principles are bad!"

US should build a statue of him because he has singlehandedly saved the US in these 2 industries and he is now going for a 3rd

Ah and lets not forget Starlink for the rural pop in the US, another achievement
So how are elon's hyperloop and boring company doing? His fans are just as deluded as the hyper himself.
 

krautmeister

Junior Member
Registered Member
elon is just a bitcoin flipper. Most fans of elon is just deluded. Tesla does not even have battery technology for their EV. They just buy and repackage batteries from Panasonic, LG chemical and of course China's CATL. China's BYD is way ahead of tesla in battery technology.
I strongly disagree on this. The fact that Tesla's are able to squeeze far superior mileage and performance from what are supposedly the same batteries anybody else can buy says it all. Their software is vastly superior, their drivetrains superior, body chassis superior, wiring designs superior, AI chips and AI training superior, charging network superior, and yes...their batteries are superior. They design their own batteries that Panasonic makes. Can anybody buy the batteries that Tesla designs and Panasonic makes for them? Nope. Is anybody else designing batteries with leading edge materials for anodes, cathodes, cobalt free, etc? Talk is cheap. The day there is an EV anywhere in the world able to compete head on with Tesla and actually not be embarrassed is when can talk about Tesla having no battery advantage.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Musk is the Nikola Tesla of our generation.

He is more of an Edison than a Tesla to be honest. He is great at commercializing other people's work and he knows enough about tech he can get what works and what does not. He also has the capital. Tesla was a guy who developed technology from first principles and made it work. He had little care for finance and was perpetually broke always spending his funds on the next great thing.

You know who is a terrible example of the anti-Musk? Robin Li of Baidu. This knucklehead had a monopoly situation laid on his lap after Google left China in 2010 and all he did was milk Baidu's market dominance for profits instead of innovating, investing more in R&D and expanding what could have and should have been China's Google. If Huawei management was in Charge of Baidu, that company would be as powerful as Huawei itself and Harmony OS would have been created by Baidu instead and released years ago instead of Huawei just like Google has Android now. Instead, you have China's domestic companies nipping on its heels and it floundering. Huawei is a threat to America because it is the Elon Musk of China, in company form.

There are lots of examples of this in China. Even Huawei mostly sought quite limited vertical integration. They have less advanced chip design teams than even a company which mostly outsources production like Apple. Huawei did more than most Chinese companies but they should have gone into semi fabs a long time ago. Not that this matters too much. The achilles heel China has is the semi fab tools sector. The Chinese fab sector simply never expanded to enough critical mass to enable a proper industry and the Chinese state was more interested in fundamental research than actually making productive tools which can be used in mass production.
Alibaba did buy a chip design company Hangzhou C-Sky Microsystems a couple years back but it was probably too little too late I think.

I agree that Baidu is mostly stagnant. I do not consider the company to be that innovative to be honest.

This is not about patriotism. It's about money and especially personality. Personality is mostly formed from environment and experience. The typical environment and experience of China's population before 2000 was that China was backward and had a lot to learn from the developed countries and a looong way to go.

Well, I know one example of this from the 1990s. In the 1990s Commodore Business Machines, a personal computer company which at one point in the 1980s was competing with the likes of Apple went bankrupt. They had a production facility in the Phillipines which manufactured the Amiga CD32 console and they had their own hardware custom chip design team in the Eastern US in PA. The former UK branch leader of the Commodore computer division had a deal with Chinese investors where they would get the full IP to manufacture this personal computer in China and export it worldwide. They would also provide seed capital to make a next generation integrated chip design to compete with the likes of the Sony PlayStation later. The Chinese investors got woodwinked by a German company (Eskom) who promised them the Commodore IP for free in case they pulled the investment from the UK branch leader's proposal. This happened at the last minute, and once the German company got Commodore Business International assets for peanuts they basically kept the Commodore trademark to sell boxed IBM PC compatibles in Germany, and left those Chinese investors in the cold. The Amiga personal computer division was knifed. So China could have had its own personal computer IP on the cheap and they blew it. The Amiga had its own chipset, hardware design teams, its own operating system, etc. Back when this sale happened in 1995 the Amiga 1200 computer they had in production was still a viable personal computer which cost less than $599 USD and had massive sales in Eastern Europe and could have had massive sales in China too. IBM PCs were too expensive for the vast majority of Chinese then.

I'll tell you what China got instead of cheap personal computers around that time. They got the current Oppo founder buying Nintendo Famicon console clones from Taiwan and reselling them in China.

There are studies that discuss this phenomenon as it relates to success and failure. This mentality guides peoples decisions on whether to study abroad and stay abroad, whether to invest in R&D or copy products, whether they believe wholesale in globalization or invest in themselves and their companies or country. It's only during the last 15-20 years where this started to change dramatically, especially the last 5 years. Believe you me, in the coming 10-15 years, this self confident mentality is going to get stronger, MUCH MUCH stronger. As this thinking and mentality becomes not just prevalent but dominant in China, it will translate into a different kind of China with its own Elon Musk's and then you will see this reflected in China as a nation.

I agree this was gradually happening (see the Alibaba purchase of C-Sky I mentioned above) but with the US knifing any Chinese companies which become viable, organic growth is clearly not enough.

elon is just a bitcoin flipper. Most fans of elon is just deluded. Tesla does not even have battery technology for their EV. They just buy and repackage batteries from Panasonic, LG chemical and of course China's CATL. China's BYD is way ahead of tesla in battery technology.

Tesla bought Maxwell a couple of years back for peanuts. Maxwell is probably THE world leader in supercapacitor research with military and industrial clients and they had also done their own solid battery research. I think you will see some product sooner or later. Remember, SpaceX did not have a satellite industry until a couple of years back and now they have Starlink. The Starlink satellites are pretty advanced for what they are regardless of what we may think of the commercial viability of Starlink itself. I think the US military will fund Starlink like they did with Iridium even if it is not commercially viable. Starlink is only marginally possible because of massive SpaceX vertical integration of everything from design to manufacture and operation of launchers and satellites. Like I was saying, the Starlink satellites have their own custom ion engines and laser links. Neither of these are particularly simple to develop and yet they did it and are building these in a production line in series.
 
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