Chinese semiconductor industry

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SAC

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At a macro level, there is some discussion on the higher level significance of semiconductors in terms of China/Taiwan/U.S. covered in a briefing at:
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Essentially, China is doing as much as it can as quickly as it can to address a strategic weakness, but it will take time.
 

gelgoog

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I think the production costs for US is a point to be made for pretty much everything except chips. While it may cost a bit more, there absolutely is demand. And if the US manages to take that away from TSMC and Samsung, they are the only shop in town at the 5nm, 7nm level. Now the Americans may not go as far as destroying "allied" foundries through those economic and political means but they do seem interested in consolidating chipmaking abilities inside the US.

China getting there may or may not attract many partners who will contract Chinese foundries to make their chips, simply because there are close to no others out there with their own chip lines e.g. like Huawei (but not Chinese) who don't already have close connections to the established Asian players and will have connections to American foundries.

Some Indian tech companies are beginning to design their own chips and they currently will be using Korean or Taiwanese foundries but they won't be using any Chinese ones due to various political reasons and will consider an American one. Even without foreign customers, those American ones will have American business.

Except that is not what has been happening historically. The memory industry was the first to go since the barriers to entry were lower. The US first lost dominance to Japan and Japan lost it to South Korea. Chip fabrication for logic remained in the US, until TSMC and Samsung came up with the fab model and fabrication in the US mostly evaporated with the notable exceptions of Intel and Micron which have vertically integrated models. The dominant CPU architecture, ARM, isn't US exclusive either.

Now, a company like Apple in theory could gather enough capital to make their own semi fabs. But they failed to do in the past and they have ZERO expertise in process development. The process expertise for logic in the US is in Intel (it keeps sliding backwards though), and the IBM/GlobalFoundries/Samsung alliance. With regards to those guys IBM now mostly outsources its process development and all its fabrication to Samsung. IBM sold its fabs to GlobalFoundries and the GlobalFoundries owners in Abu Dhabi after several years decided to throw in the towel and stopped investing in new process development. So their branch of development is basically finished except for perhaps a couple of guys working on a lab making a process to gain IBM some more patents while Samsung ends up using something else.

While US companies remain committed to stock buybacks instead of capital investment US manufacturing isn't going to go anywhere. Be it Boeing who ended up outsourcing the design and fabrication of most of its new aircraft like the 787, or be it Apple, who would rather Foxconn or someone else do the heavy handed capital investments while they collect the profits.

When you hear US companies say they want US government investment to build new fabs, and the government will give all of them $20 billion, or whatever, then you know it will be a failure. That won't cover the cost of a single new fab, and you need to retool or build a new one every two years or so.
 
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latenlazy

Brigadier
So is the 35% number calculated from production related metrics or consumption ones? Like for their process, every 100 attempted results in 50% success as opposed to 85% success? I'm still wondering why Liang said the process is 35% inferior.
No 35% is in reference to transistor performance, mainly some combination of energy consumption and switching speed.
 

tokenanalyst

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China is the single largest net importer of integrated circuits because they are basically the factory of the world's consumer electronics. How many of those integrated circuits stay in China and how many are re-exported? Do the math and you might end up figuring out China already has enough fabrication to offset any imports for its own use.
At last, somebody say it, China is the biggest electronic manufacturing hub in the world and lot of foreign companies manufacture their products there, chips imports numbers in china are always gonna be skew in favor of foreign manufacturers, Apple is not going to buy Hisilicon power chips anytime soon. What China wants to replace is chips for domestic consumption by China owns companies and government procurement. Knowing is how many ICs China domestics companies imports vs how many are fabricated at home would be a better metric. I think that the Chinese are closer to that 70% domestic IC consumption than most people give them credit.

Nobody in this thread would talk about e.g. Netherlands (despite owning EUVL tech) because the only countries that have foundries capable of <28nm are China, USA, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan (sorry not a country oops lol).

His point, if you ignore the doom and gloom stuff and the occasional clear hyperbole, is that China is still not at the same level as those other four
Ironically the US is a dominant force when speaking about equipment, design and software but they have been steadily losing in the fab department, why you think all the sudden they started to panic and try to destroy other countries semiconductor industry, because they are losing semiconductor manufacturing capability. And Japan is sightly better than the US but worse when comes to semiconductor manufacturing companies, the U.S did a good job destroying that country semiconductor capability.

This list used to be full of U.S and Japanese companies, now the U.S. only has 1 and Japan zero, Mainland China has 3.

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I think China should focus in making chips at least with 28 and above nodes with 100% domestic technology to create an ecosystem, older nodes 20+ represent like 70% of the semiconductor industry, like someone in this thread pointed they are still no banned of making the latest chips in TSMC, but once they manage to create their ecosystem catching on 14nm, 7nm and even 5nm will be a lot easier.
 

gelgoog

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This list used to be full of U.S and Japanese companies, now the U.S. only has 1 and Japan zero, Mainland China has 3.

I assume this is a list of foundries. If does not include integrated manufacturers like Intel or Micron. Or SK Hynix.
GlobalFoundries' owners are an UAE wealth fund. So they are "US" based only in that they do process development there. They also have fabs in the US, but they have fabs elsewhere like in Germany and Singapore.
 

tokenanalyst

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I assume this is a list of foundries. If does not include integrated manufacturers like Intel or Micron. Or SK Hynix.
GlobalFoundries' owners are an UAE wealth fund. So they are "US" based only in that they do process development there. They also have fabs in the US, but they have fabs elsewhere like in Germany and Singapore.
Agree, YTMC isn't on the list for China either, but the point is, like most other forms of manufacturing in the United States, semiconductor manufacturing is something they've been steadily losing to other countries, while China has been steadily gaining semiconductor manufacturing capacity. That is why they have gone into what I consider to be "panic mode". Now because of their overuse of sanctions, they risk losing out on what they are strong in (equipment, design software, etc.) just for the sake of "national security." If Chinese semi companies go big in China, just because of the size of the Chinese market, that could mean they will do so globally.
 
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