Yeah... I thought so. Good news, anyway.
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
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Interesting information you have there.
The article i quote seems to suggest restrictions on Semi-Equipment of some sort are in place by the US GOVT.
But even if there isnt an Embargo now, there is already talk of an upcoming Embargo on YMTC.
So it is prudent for YMTC to start localising its Production Line.
YMTC is already 100% working on that. A couple of pages back I posted a Nikkei article saying that YMTC was working on ripping out US tech from its whole supply chain
D
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As far as formal statue, there are EUVL restrictions on China as a whole but no YMTC specific restrictions (though that could change at any moment)
Actually, they will have an immensely large (until they go bankrupt) semiconductor industry. They just won't have who to sell to, since the market is and will increasingly be in China, which will be self sufficient.
Trump did and Biden is screwing bigly.
@jfcarli and bro let me add some more, it will be expensive to produced especially since they concentrated on 5nm nodes and below, believing in their strategy that they monopolized that segment. With TW , Arizona FAB and the Koreans mass producing simultaneously by 2024 , it will be a buyers market instead of a seller. Letting the Chinese take over the 7nm and above with cheaper price, basically pricing themselves out of the market.
No ! I think they know it , but they can do anything and not only semiconductor !
I want china's heavy industry more strong , more and more !
Bingo! By 2024, China's mass production of 7nm will start to proliferate. When this proliferation process in China really starts to gain steam from 2025 onwards, the price/performance curve between DUV 7nm and EUV 2/3/5nm will begin to warp dramatically and force pricing of EUV <=5nm to plunge drastically. At the same time, all those new EUV fabs being planned & built now will be coming online. China will be able to flood an already oversupply situation to absolutely annihilate TSMC, Samsung, Intel margins on their <=5nm processes. The premium pricing power they are counting on to amortize the billions in capital costs of those nodes will be impossible.
Consider that well over 50% of the world's semiconductor consumption is in China and that China has developed a very strong "allergy" to foreign semiconductor dependence and you get the picture. Either those 2/3/5nm process pricing drop dramatically to compete against the relative rock bottom pricing of China produced DUV 7nm semiconductors, or there will be a lot of dead oversupply fab capacity at TSMC, Samsung and Intel, from 2025 onwards.
Their only remaining rescue from this coming nightmare is the probable development of <2nm density GAAFET layered chiplets by then, and even then, this would only sell at the very top end of the market. I'm fully expecting a wave of bankruptcies outside China because of this.
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