Indeed, it's very likely the tech industry will split into two supply chains, one for the US, one for China, with the rest of the world getting from either one. The Chinese one doesn't have to be Chinese equipment-only. It can have non-US equipment, in fact, US suppliers can also be part of that supply chain as long as they are certified to be EAR-free.
Chinese semiconductor industry
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Indeed, it's very likely the tech industry will split into two supply chains, one for the US, one for China, with the rest of the world getting from either one. The Chinese one doesn't have to be Chinese equipment-only. It can have non-US equipment, in fact, US suppliers can also be part of that supply chain as long as they are certified to be EAR-free.
But when you're talking about supply chains, the more efficient supply chain should have lower costs.
That lower-cost supply chain should win in the rest of the world.
And in the long-run, that means China.
The US is shooting itself in the foot here with these rules. They don't hold shit in terms of technology nowadays when it comes to design and fab. If they want to demand various supply restrictions, most stakeholders are going to give their business a second look as their livelihoods and profits are undermined today or on the line tomorrow. China is doing the right thing by approaching the problem with a trust in the free market ironically enough. Hopefully stakeholders realise this. But US competitors and key players who challenge them are MURDERED. They all get "suicided" like those Marconi engineers and the countless other bodies who are not so well known. This regime of terror must be stopped and what better time to make the world realise the truth than now. This is a country that intentionally conducted Nazi and Japanese unit 731 level medical experiments on its OWN citizens up until the late 20th century! How many are outraged? Close to none!
There are various reports that companies are now:
1. Marketing their semiconductor products as free of US technology
2. Samsung (and possibly TSMC) looking to build fabs without any US technology
antiterror13
Brigadier
Any links?
It's mostly second hand reporting.
It's not like those companies are going to announce publicly that they are thumbing their noses at the US government.
They'll just get on with it quietly as much as possible.
Plus you know it's the logical result, because it is what Chinese customers want.
But it will be a long process.
A few more ways the US could escalate:
1) Put semiconductors on ITAR list: basically means that no company can sell any semiconductor related items to ANY company in China without license from the US
2) Sanction China like Iran. No foreign company can sell any semiconductors to China. So no more Samsung fabs or Japanese IC materials and equipment.
3) Prevent all US citizens and other foreign nationals from working in any strategic sector in China like semiconductors. So no more talent from the US or South Korea or Japan.
Obviously, if the US escalates it to this point, there probably will be a war. I could see China invading Taiwan in retaliation.
1) Put semiconductors on ITAR list: basically means that no company can sell any semiconductor related items to ANY company in China without license from the US
2) Sanction China like Iran. No foreign company can sell any semiconductors to China. So no more Samsung fabs or Japanese IC materials and equipment.
3) Prevent all US citizens and other foreign nationals from working in any strategic sector in China like semiconductors. So no more talent from the US or South Korea or Japan.
Obviously, if the US escalates it to this point, there probably will be a war. I could see China invading Taiwan in retaliation.
I think China was naive to trust the US on this crucial choke point.
maybe in a few years, but most these companies (maybe except AMEC) don't really make equipment for high end nodes. And also the cost of production will be sky high and won't be competitive because the ouptut is low.
However, with the exception of EUV, none of the other equipment needed is exceedingly high tech. It's a pretty mature industry, so it's likely that China will be able to build it's own LAM research or Applied materials in shorter time. No one in China wanted to be in the IC equipment industry five years ago, because it's extremely mature, why reinvent the wheel when you can buy it cheaply from LAM or applied materials?
But obviously the game has changed now, so hopefully the market will respond accordingly.
maybe in a few years, but most these companies (maybe except AMEC) don't really make equipment for high end nodes. And also the cost of production will be sky high and won't be competitive because the ouptut is low.
However, with the exception of EUV, none of the other equipment needed is exceedingly high tech. It's a pretty mature industry, so it's likely that China will be able to build it's own LAM research or Applied materials in shorter time. No one in China wanted to be in the IC equipment industry five years ago, because it's extremely mature, why reinvent the wheel when you can buy it cheaply from LAM or applied materials?
But obviously the game has changed now, so hopefully the market will respond accordingly.
plus Moore's law is pretty much dead beyond 5Nm.TSMC and Samsung know that, 5Nm and beyond is pure marketing hype. The performance improvement is not worth the extra cost. The next breakthrough of semiconductors will be in optical or graphene or carbon based chips, which no country really has a lead in. So the effects of banning Huawei is merely a tactical retreat for China, we have to keep our eye on the ball, and be in the lead for the next breakthrough and leapfrog this 5nm, 3nm, etc rat race.
It looks like Canadian wireless carriers are going ahead with European suppliers versus Huawei. Unlike Australia, Canada has not announced that it is banning Huawei, but this is interesting:
"Canada's lengthy delay in rendering a decision on Huawei seems to have been a strategy in itself – an effort to discourage wireless firms from picking the Chinese company by leaving an unresolved cloud of uncertainty over its gear."
Basically Canada is holding off on banning Huawei because they don't want to draw Chinese retaliation, but delaying the process to force its carriers to make a move (so they don't fall behind on 5G), but by delaying its carriers will sign sure contracts while waiting for the official decision on Huawei. This basically minimizes Huawei's role while avoiding an official ban.
IMO China/Huawei must have known ahead of time that it was going to be difficult next to impossible to get any members of the 5 Eyes to sign Huawei. It's a win itself that UK didn't completely ban Huawei.
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