Chinese semiconductor industry
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What Huang is ignoring is that the whole US plan hinges on the Taiwanese fabs being destroyed in the first place.
The thing is, even if the US tries to goad the PRC into invading Taiwan with some declaration of independence, or some other stupidity, I do not expect the PRC to bite. At least not immediately. It is pretty clear to me that unlike the bollocks we are hearing from the US military heads that China will invade Taiwan over the next two years, while China is militarily ready to do it at any time, there is no short term plan to do it.
So, what the US government might claim, is that the ROC is leaking "US technology" to the PRC, or some other bullshit. And once they have the fabs in the US they will just start squeezing the Taiwanese fabs out by applying the same medicine they did to mainland China. Perhaps TSMC in Taiwan won't be able to buy the latest generation High NA EUV for example. Anyway, I do not expect any of their plans to work. The US is just ignoring the massive investment required to replace TSMC.
The thing is, even if the US tries to goad the PRC into invading Taiwan with some declaration of independence, or some other stupidity, I do not expect the PRC to bite. At least not immediately. It is pretty clear to me that unlike the bollocks we are hearing from the US military heads that China will invade Taiwan over the next two years, while China is militarily ready to do it at any time, there is no short term plan to do it.
So, what the US government might claim, is that the ROC is leaking "US technology" to the PRC, or some other bullshit. And once they have the fabs in the US they will just start squeezing the Taiwanese fabs out by applying the same medicine they did to mainland China. Perhaps TSMC in Taiwan won't be able to buy the latest generation High NA EUV for example. Anyway, I do not expect any of their plans to work. The US is just ignoring the massive investment required to replace TSMC.
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That's what I kept saying (not here). If anything, I argued that this is a point of strength because software is human capital intensive.
My degree is even more useless. Economics.
At least pol sci grads can get paid in DC.
Nikon is a big company that makes more than just SEM. If they decided it's best to just be done with this business, I might actually be in agreement with them. Seems like a lost cause.
Jensen Huang is a smart man. He built a successful company. If I were in DC, I'd listen to him.
We had been saying that for some time, who is going to buy those chips if the demand is not in the US?
The day dream of the national security stooges in D.C. is to move a huge chunk of the industry manufacturing capacity from Taiwan and South Korea to the US with the objective of controlling the global flow of semiconductor products in the world, not by market demand principles but by creating a bureaucratic nightmare were they give priority to the military and the national security apparatus regardless of real global chip demand. Little they now that if their day dream comes true the US will be really swimming on empty fabs.
The day dream of the national security stooges in D.C. is to move a huge chunk of the industry manufacturing capacity from Taiwan and South Korea to the US with the objective of controlling the global flow of semiconductor products in the world, not by market demand principles but by creating a bureaucratic nightmare were they give priority to the military and the national security apparatus regardless of real global chip demand. Little they now that if their day dream comes true the US will be really swimming on empty fabs.
That is a big drop.
empty fabs cost $$$$$$ to maintain - and you can't choose to not maintain it as it also costs $$$$$$ to close, decontaminate, etc. Nobody is going to build a fab just to let it sit at 30-40% utilization.
A couple of comparisons on Various chips. The first one shows Ascend vs Cambrian GPU chips. As you can see, MLU-290 (思元290) is still behind Ascend-910 in most computational measures, but it only consumes half of the power, so that's it's advance. IIRC, MLU-590 is Cambrian's new product and is supposedly better, but they don't have it's numbers anywhere
In second one, this is comparing edge computing AI chips from Nvidia, Ascend and Cambrian. In this case, it seems to me that both Chinese chips do better in terms of computation power per Watt. Important in applications that require such.
havok：现在几个子系统里面光刻机镜头产能还很低，这是光刻机整机产能低的重要原因。等9月左右国望光学的新基地开始员工入住和启用了，产能才能慢慢上来，长春国科精密只生产0.82和0.75的镜头，浸没镜头主要都是国望光学生产
havok：At present, the production capacity of the lithography machine lens in several subsystems is still very low, which is an main reason for the low production capacity of the whole lithography machine. The production capacity will slowly increase when the new base of Guowang starts to move in and start employees around September. Changchun Guoke only produces 0.82 and 0.75 lenses. Immersion lenses are mainly produced by Guowang.
havok：At present, the production capacity of the lithography machine lens in several subsystems is still very low, which is an main reason for the low production capacity of the whole lithography machine. The production capacity will slowly increase when the new base of Guowang starts to move in and start employees around September. Changchun Guoke only produces 0.82 and 0.75 lenses. Immersion lenses are mainly produced by Guowang.
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