Do you have a source for that? I have trying to follow Hua Hong for 3 years now but all I hear is about their 28nm and how they are continuously trying to increase the capacity for that.
Bro from a Chinese source hope this help.
It seems that the masses still don't understand the current status of China's chip manufacturing technology.
#How about the development of Chinese chips#
1. The two largest domestic companies with the highest technical level are the two. SMIC is the most famous, but it is market-oriented.
The real national team is Hua Hong, so fewer people know it. Others are not good enough, and there is no advanced manufacturing process.
2. Assessing the level of technology is two indicators: what is under the American technology system and what level under the de-beautification (not nationally produced) technology system.
3. At present, SMIC has the best development under the American technology system, 14nm mass production yield is up to standard, and the more advanced technology equivalent to 7nm has also made significant progress (but based on DUV lithography machine, TSMC is inherently inferior to EUV lithography machine And Samsung).
4. Hua Hong has made progress on 14nm in the American technology route and is preparing for mass production in 2022. However, Hua Hong shoulders an important task, which is to make the main effort to achieve de-beautification of the production line, which is specifically in charge of its subsidiary ICRD (Shanghai Integrated Circuit Research and Development Center). Among them, the lithography machine is in charge of Shanghai Microelectronics SMEE, the theoretical level is 90nm, and it is rumored that there will be opportunities for 28nm lithography by the end of 2021. However, in the core link of chip manufacturing, SMEE is not available on either SMIC or Hua Hong's production line (it is said that it has put a lot of dust), and only has a good share of non-core links in packaging and testing.4.
5. No one knows what kind of chips can be made with China's de-beautification technology. Theoretically it is 90nm, but there is no verification line that clearly says it can. Therefore, there is no explanation for this issue. It is basically certain that the debugging (45nm or 28nm) of the domestic verification line to beautify is being carried out in Shanghai and Beijing. It would be good if the debugging can be started by the end of the year.
6. If the debugging is passed, the yield rate may be 10%, which has no real economic value, but it is already a great progress. Then start the yield ramp, climbing to 90% is not bad, and less makes sense. This process is very troublesome and often gets stuck. If the yield rate in 2023 can pass, it would be considered extremely ideal. Even if it's not 28nm, 45nm is fine. You shouldn't expect a smooth cut. I personally feel that it will be stuck for a while according to the law of technology.
7. There are also some attempts to beautify. SMIC has given domestic machines the opportunity to test on the production line. This is very complicated, and it's not clear how to deal with it. People in the chip manufacturing industry are generally more conservative and will be laughed at if you zoom in.
8. Public opinion still doesn't understand or believe in technical difficulty. In terms of development history, this is the high-precision field that China is least good at, and it has been involved in many high-tech shortcomings. TSMC would die without external support. And China needs to solve these conditions one by one, and the workload is extremely huge. Zhang Zhongmou said that the gap between mainland China is more than five years, which means that under the American technology system, the gap can still be discussed. If it means to beautify the technical system, no one can actually give a time estimate, but it must be more than ten years. It is equivalent to TSMC plus the entire technology system of the industry. Compared with China's independent technology, it is really not suitable for comparison. First, we must strive to reach the level that can be said to be ten years behind.
9. Regarding the issue of overcapacity under the American technology route, this is still something to talk about. The current strategy is to increase the production capacity of American technology chips even if there is a risk of supply cut-off in the United States. The United States and Europe are increasing chip production capacity, and they are concerned about advanced manufacturing processes. China is not yet qualified to talk about the production capacity of advanced processes, just look at the reports of SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor.
10. SMIC is the largest in mainland China, but only has a market share of 4.8%. The proportion of SMIC's 14nm revenue to total revenue is almost negligible, and it is only 5.0% combined with 28nm. The main revenue depends on 40-45-55-65nm and 0.15 micron. The reason should be that there was no order from major customers, and Huawei's 14nm order did not have a great impact. This is not overcapacity, but it shows that China's chip industry needs to catch up in all aspects, and chip design companies must dare to challenge 14nm and successfully sell sufficient quantities, just like Huawei's 14nm mobile phones. In this case, it is too simple to use the sentence "28nm overcapacity" to summarize the problem. If the mainland company can place orders for 14nm and 28nm, it will be a very good thing.