Chinese semiconductor industry

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tphuang

tphuang

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KYli said:
I don't know what Weibo commenter is basing his fact upon. YMTC was under the radar of US congress after it has successfully become a supplier of Apple. Supplying Huawei was never mentioned as the reason why YMTC got a total ban. It is banned due to YMTC is too successful.

US congress basically doesn't give a fuck about YMTC supplying Huawei or not. If you read through the news article before the total ban, the US congress was asking the Biden administration to ban YMTC more than a year ago and shortly after Apple is attempting to use YMTC products. I don't think posting a random Weibo rumor is useful for the discussion.
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well the person I saw posting this was critiquing the guy that wrote the above. The point here is to say that YMTC is going through some tough time right now. Sanctions are affecting not just the sale of US tools to China but also US customer base that these foundries have built up.

It will likely affect SMIC also. I think SMIC shouldn't have spent time talking about trying to keep 20% of their revenue from America. That ship has sailed. They'd be better of just finding more Chinese customers and central gov't need to pressure more of these domestic chip designers to use SMIC and YMTC production rather than have them produced by Samsung and TSMC.
 
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tokenanalyst

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KYli said:
I don't know what Weibo commenter is basing his fact upon. YMTC was under the radar of US congress after it has successfully become a supplier of Apple. Supplying Huawei was never mentioned as the reason why YMTC got a total ban. It is banned due to YMTC is too successful.

US congress basically doesn't give a fuck about YMTC supplying Huawei or not. If you read through the news article before the total ban, the US congress was asking the Biden administration to ban YMTC more than a year ago and shortly after Apple is attempting to use YMTC products. I don't think posting a random Weibo rumor is useful for the discussion.
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Looks like that for the national security chicken hawks YMTC deal with Apple as a much bigger "problem" than anything else.
 
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mst

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The Netherlands is expected to expand restrictions on ASML, its largest chip equipment maker, which would prevent it from selling some of its advanced machines with extreme lithography technology — crucial to making the latest chips. Japan could set similar limits on local makers Nikon and Tokyo Electron.

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Overbom

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Yeah its semi-official at this point (Always has been meme...)

Important things to watch out:
  • If any, what's the grace period
  • What specific semiconductor equipment gets banned
  • Will they also be banned from servicing equipment already installed in China
  • Will they adopt US-style ban on their citizens from working in the Chinese IC industry
  • Will there be a a systemic framework agreed to make this a standardised process (a IC equipment cartel basically) to widen or narrow restrictions as time passes (imo unlikely)
 
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Weaasel

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mst said:
The Netherlands is expected to expand restrictions on ASML, its largest chip equipment maker, which would prevent it from selling some of its advanced machines with extreme lithography technology — crucial to making the latest chips. Japan could set similar limits on local makers Nikon and Tokyo Electron.

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Click to expand...
ASML is already entirely banned from selling EUV lithography machines to China. With regards to them eventually increasing being forced to increase the number of items that they ban and the Japanese doing the same, that comes as absolutely no surprise. China should have listened to the Cassandras more than ten years ago who were then already beating the drums of having absolute self reliance in all worth having high tech sectors. But so many and probably most in China at the time believed that the Chinese market was just too lucrative for the US alliance countries' companies to abandon greatly with regards to high tech exports, including IC chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales. They were wrong and the Cassandras were right.

Let this serve as a lesson to everyone. The logic of financial and commercial profitability does not always prevail, especially when faced with entities that already have adversarial and potentially very hostile attitudes, who will decide to be belligerent even when one has not "provoked" their belligerence. In actual fact the potential of China surpassing the US socio economically and given the obsession of the US elite to ensure politico-economic and military predominance in this globe is itself the a provocation that results in US belligerence.
 
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mst

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Weaasel said:
ASML is already entirely banned from selling EUV lithography machines to China. With regards to them eventually increasing being forced to increase the number of items that they ban and the Japanese doing the same, that comes as absolutely no surprise. China should have listened to the Cassandras more than ten years ago who were then already beating the drums of having absolute self reliance in all worth having high tech sectors. But so many and probably most in China at the time believed that the Chinese market was just too lucrative for the US alliance countries' companies to abandon greatly with regards to high tech exports, including IC chips and semiconductor manufacturing equipment sales. They were wrong and the Cassandras were right.

Let this serve as a lesson to everyone. The logic of financial and commercial profitability does not always prevail, especially when faced with entities that already have adversarial and potentially very hostile attitudes, who will decide to be belligerent even when one has not "provoked" their belligerence. In actual fact the potential of China surpassing the US socio economically and given the obsession of the US elite to ensure politico-economic and military predominance in this globe is itself the a provocation that results in US belligerence.
Click to expand...
Will China retaliate against Japan? Ban rare earth materials?
 
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Weaasel

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Overbom said:
Yeah its semi-official at this point (Always has been meme...)

Important things to watch out:
  • If any, what's the grace period
  • What specific semiconductor equipment gets banned
  • Will they also be banned from servicing equipment already installed in China
  • Will they adopt US-style ban on their citizens from working in the Chinese IC industry
  • Will there be a a systemic framework agreed to make this a standardised process (a IC equipment cartel basically) to widen or narrow restrictions as time passes (imo unlikely)
Click to expand...

Overbom said:
Yeah its semi-official at this point (Always has been meme...)

Important things to watch out:
  • If any, what's the grace period
  • What specific semiconductor equipment gets banned
  • Will they also be banned from servicing equipment already installed in China
  • Will they adopt US-style ban on their citizens from working in the Chinese IC industry
  • Will there be a a systemic framework agreed to make this a standardised process (a IC equipment cartel basically) to widen or narrow restrictions as time passes (imo unlikely)
Click to expand...
It really doesn't matter... China should just adopt the attitude that all countries in the world, especially those of the US Alliance are on a full high tech embargo against China and act accordingly and rationally to COMPREHENSIVELY indigenize all high tech of any sort worth having. The ENTIRE supply chain as much as possible must be in China.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Korean IC industry now have 900 billion RMB of semiconductor stored up and not delivered. China represents Korean IC industries's main export market, 60% in fact. So, it's a huge problem for Korea that China is needing to import less chips.

I do wonder about some of these optimistic statements about semi industry turning around the inventory backlog reducing by second half of 2023. Is the economy getting any better? What is that based on? Sure, there is non stop demand in China for domestic tools and chips due to sanction fears. But for companies that exported into China, they already have a huge backlog that need to be cleared up and the market size is shrinking by the day for them. Where else is this market opening up for them?
And for all of them that have been using China sales to reinvest into R&D and new projects, where is that funding going to come from now?
 
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