If Chinese fabs could buy all the tools they needed and accounted for the majority of semiconductor production, then yes, that would be a good thing.
The US wouldn't be able to sanction chips nor China
Chinese semiconductor industry
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If Chinese fabs could buy all the tools they needed and accounted for the majority of semiconductor production, then yes, that would be a good thing.
The US wouldn't be able to sanction chips nor China
It will be bad to slow the localization of the semiconductor industry for quick profits in a time like this, I just saying from the point of view of US companies, they have to convince the US goverment, regain the trust of Chinese companies and practically pray that the Chinese goverment will no impose import restriction on their products that compete with local ones. before process are redesigned and optimized.
China accounting for a majority of production in an industry doesn't prevent the US from sanctioning China; if anything, it encourages the US to play on the fear of Chinese monopoly, which leads to even more sanctions. The reason is the same, ironically, on both sides - it's to force the domestic industry to diversify their supply lines and dependencies. Politics dictate economics and always have.
Also, to bargain, you have to have the right leverage. The problem with China's bargaining power vis-a-vis the West is that the West historically owned the high technology, while China just owned the labor and infrastructure. The latter cannot function without the former, but the former can function without the latter, since the West can take their technology to, say, India or Vietnam or Indonesia, and manufacture there.
This isn't to say those countries can fully replace China, but rather that scarcity is a natural law. If what you own is scarce (and high technologies like EUV are scarce), then you have more leverage. By contrast, if what you own is abundant (and labor & infrastructure are abundant), then you have less leverage. If China was the only major source of labor and infrastructure in the world, the West wouldn't dare to sanction China; but because of the pyramid effect in which there are much more competitors at China's level, than at the West's, the West believes it has the bargaining advantage and thus, the "right" to sanction China.
In other words, they are trying to show China how "abundant" labor and infrastructure is - by forcing it out of China and in doing so, reducing China's leverage.
The proper response is to show the West that their own "scarce resource" isn't nearly as scarce as they think - by developing alternatives to Western technology that, essentially, reduces the scarcity of high technology and thus Western leverage.
I think this is actually very positive, because it shows they building up the ecosystem at the academic stage. This is important because people like to fallback on familiarity, so if you were trained on a certain system/tool during your education, you are more likely to promote/favor its use when you move into industry, because it is something you are comfortable with and have an established history using. It creates a pipeline for your product, cradle to adulthood so to speak and is effective in promoting the use of your products. It also creates barriers to adoption of your competition, just look at how hard it has been for SMEE to gain traction because basically everyone in academia and industry trains using ASML and is comfortable with it.
lol it took China 3 decades to build up that supply chain. Just look at electricity consumption. How the fuck can they even take production to India, Vietnam, or Indonesia. What are their factories gonna run on? Democracy? And then how are they gonna send those goods? Freedom?
"it's just matter of time!"
lol
lmao even
You can drink 10 gallons of water over a 1 week or I just dunk your head in 10 gallons of water and kill you. Just a matter of time right?!
People like you don't know wtf scale is. It's like arguing with retards who compared two fighters just by techniques. You can train 100 years if you want, the lardass who weights 200lbs more than you will slap the shit out of you with ease. They can shove their technology up their ass in Vietnam, India and Indonesia and nothing will come even close to what China has.
Ironically labor and infrastructure that’s built into a good production system, especially at China scale and cost efficiency, *is* scarce.
Well, a couple of points...
1. West is not US.
US technology is not Western technology. I understand in US you are used to consider the terms equivalent, but in reality they are not. For instance Germany, but also Switzerland, France, etc all sell to China very high tech products and tools: airplanes, industrial robots, a very wide range of precision machinery, advanced tools in optics / lasers, etc. And guess what? They will continue to do so, even if US does not like it.
Real advanced US technology that China needs and for which there is not any alternative, nowadays is mainly in semiconductor design and manufacturing, and maybe very few and specifics other niches. But even in semiconductors, US is desperately trying to force Europe and Japan to align, otherwise even here US alone can hardly slow down China....even less stop it.
2. In 2022 China is no more just the Factory of the World
If you still think that China is the factory of the world, you are more or less a decade late at the party. Technology in China is already world class today in many many fields, from renewable energy (included nuclear) to transportation, from construction to e-commerce and I even don't mention NEV cars, where China is at the forefront, by far.
And above all this China has also the full supply chain. And this is not a small detail. When China will finally successfully localize chips, US will remain without banning ammo....and so it will switch weapon: close market for Chinese firms (Xinjiang style), financial war...and I hope not, but I would not be surprised at all, even a real war, better if fought by a proxy...like Taiwan, for instance.
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Just deleted a few posts here and I think it's important for new members like @Eventine understand that this thread is heavily moderated to ensure that things don't degenerate off topic. I don't mind value members going off topic occasionally in response, since they have earned the right to do so. If you are new to this forum, then please have some respect for this forum and not take it in geopolitical direction. Read and share quality materials. If you can't do that, at least try to stay on topic. All of this is an effort to keep conversation on topic while not discouraging people from having dialog. If you are not capable of that, then please stay away from this thread.
Hopefully within next 3-4 years China already can come with EUV Lithography. Designing EUV Lithography is one very difficult thing; but getting 100,000 highly precision parts is another very huge challenge that China need to conquer.
Bro every member believes 2025 is the date of an eventual introduction of a Chinese EUVL, so your prediction is on mark, of the 3 core tech we have mastered 2, with only the power sources lagging behind. My opinion with the help of SSRF as a tool, If the SSMB promise is realized, we may have the necessary materials, photoresist and mask ready for production of either the 5nm and 3nm chips. Wild claimed on my part but connecting the rumors and news from Liang Mong Song regarding their research on 5nm and 3nm chips, it all fall in place.
We had already completed the 01 project which is the Aircraft engine, as the number imply its number one priority due to its complexity, 02 is partially complete with SMEE 28NM DUVL, in a way we had a foot on door so to speak. So the future of Chinese semiconductor is bright, from next year onward we may hear an official news of SSA 800 DUVL mass introduction as the major components manufacture were able to finished their expansion plan.
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