Chinese semiconductor industry

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FairAndUnbiased

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The problem with Taiwan is now everybody want to build his own ICs. The one without the local market will be the big loser.
Taiwan also doesn't have a unique physical IP that cannot be replicated, since it doesn't make domestic tools, it just buys foreign tools. it's not even at the same level as South Korea which at least has domestic demand from Samsung and LG branded electronics, Hyundai cars, etc. Taiwan doesn't have a finished electronics industry with significant IP, all they do is assembling standard computers like Asus/Acer.
 

hullopilllw

Junior Member
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It shouldn't be this way, Taiwan had a huge leverage, I mean they can say NO and see the American acquiescence, they can fought back hard and use the Chinese market as a bargaining tool, instead Miss Tsai pawned the family Jewel for what? So that She and Brandon can exchange views on how to raise dogs....lol
What leverage, dont be naive please. There is no leverage if one cant keep it ; American lawmakers are already talking on the possibility of bombing TSMC foundries if China is officially took over the island.

Once TSMC got the 2 plants in US up and running by 2025, US strategists will remove their pretence of care on anything TW and steer into a scorched-earth policy.
 

resistance

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What leverage, dont be naive please. There is no leverage if one cant keep it ; American lawmakers are already talking on the possibility of bombing TSMC foundries if China is officially took over the island.

Once TSMC got the 2 plants in US up and running by 2025, US strategists will remove their pretence of care on anything TW and steer into a scorched-earth policy.
The things is that if Taiwan don't have chip, china can put sanctions like what US do with cuba. I think Taiwan semiconductor is the leverage to china not to put harsh sanctions.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
What leverage, dont be naive please. There is no leverage if one cant keep it ; American lawmakers are already talking on the possibility of bombing TSMC foundries if China is officially took over the island.

Once TSMC got the 2 plants in US up and running by 2025, US strategists will remove their pretence of care on anything TW and steer into a scorched-earth policy.
Well IF they had the guts to say NO to American demand then let's see what happen, my thinking is that the US will think twice and even thrice, two can play the game and It will make the current chip shortage worse and may hinder the US economy for 5 years. Naivety is what drive the Taiwan semiconductor policy , IF Taiwan say NO and the American kill it, who will be the winner, China is right across the strait and have the market size comparable or greater than the combine west. ;)

And another thing, you will NOT know how powerful and influential you are until you put yourself to the challenges, everybody is afraid of US power so everybody acquiescence BUT IF you hold a monopoly with an alternative customer richer and more powerful why not take the plunge, you will be harvested anyway, at least you put up a fight and survived like what Huawei did and follow ASML and the Russian example.:)
 
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Weaasel

Senior Member
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The Chinese government should not bear all the responsibilities and the associated costs for tools' development. The private players have responsibilities to pay most of the R & D costs since it is their corporate asses on the line and they are the ones who will profit from the tools.
Not when China is faced with a likely high tech embargo and China actually needs the high tech that it currently imports to be readily available. It does not matter whether the cat is black or white as long as it catches mice. High tech is a high national priority issue, and UV lithography equipment is very high on that list. If the state can best develop high tech categories like UV lithographic equipment, and has the resources to do so, it should.
 

european_guy

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China’s semiconductor output posts biggest ever monthly decline in October amid weak demand, fresh US tech export controls​


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There is a drop in IC output, but sanctions are not the reason IMO. There is also a similar drop in IC imports, so it is mainly due to weak market. The sanctions impacted indirectly because some customer, possibly some US one, cut orders with SMIC.

If SMIC and the other China players regain some free capacity for the immediate future is not necessarily a bad thing. They are refocusing on serving local market and relying less on foreign customers.

Available foundry capacity in China is critical for the health of the whole ecosystem, foundries quarterly bottom lines are less critical (and anyhow they remain all deeply positive).
 

FairAndUnbiased

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China’s semiconductor output posts biggest ever monthly decline in October amid weak demand, fresh US tech export controls​


SCMP article:
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There is a drop in IC output, but sanctions are not the reason IMO. There is also a similar drop in IC imports, so it is mainly due to weak market. The sanctions impacted indirectly because some customer, possibly some US one, cut orders with SMIC.

If SMIC and the other China players regain some free capacity for the immediate future is not necessarily a bad thing. They are refocusing on serving local market and relying less on foreign customers.

Available foundry capacity in China is critical for the health of the whole ecosystem, foundries quarterly bottom lines are less critical (and anyhow they remain all deeply positive).
the semiconductor output does not matter much compared to tools sales. Taiwan is only big in semiconductor, it is not strong. Fat is not strong. At least South Korean tries to build their own tools. China isn't just looking to have a big semiconductor industry but a strong one. The real metric to watch is tool sales.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
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You say it best, they will TRY.

They will TRY not to take advantage of the situation. They will TRY not to take the market shared of American companies. They will TRY to reject billions on sales because they care about the well being of their American competitors.

There is not guaranteed that they will succeed it but hell if they will TRY.
Tokyo Electron is only making such announcements because it is taking cues from the Japanese government. You are skeptical of their statement. To me, their statement is an indication of the probability that Japanese companies by orders from their government might indeed follow US trade policy vis a vis China on semiconductor equipment and materials hook line and sinker...
 
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