And how is responding to a political threat to the advantage of China? What would change in the development/refinement of a domestic DUV by rubbing it in the Americans face?
Chinese semiconductor industry
- Thread starter Hendrik_2000
- Start date
- Status
And how is responding to a political threat to the advantage of China? What would change in the development/refinement of a domestic DUV by rubbing it in the Americans face?
I'm just reading the graph given. If it's outdated or inaccurate, and underestimates < 28 nm then all the better. However increasing share of SMEE not in just packaging lithography but in front end for older nodes is still important.
The threat is politically motivated, but the action of embargo is real.
Announcing an domestic DUV is not for the purpose of rubbing in the American's face, but to stop the "physical action" of embargo.
If not for the DUV embargo, I would fully agree with you on keeping a low profile is the best course of action for China.
It’s 2021 data. There probably won’t be an update until maybe the annual report if at all.
Except that’s is a gamble. You have no guarantees it won’t happen. They weaponized the dollar and cratered their own economy to win a social media war against Russia. Biden and the Neocons have been pushing for a chip alliance against China at the expense of their own allies interest not even 24 hours ago.
First, quarterly revenue were not the same, so can't take the average across 4 quarters and multiply against the annual revenue.
Second, the numbers you used are for FinFET & 28nm (not just for 28nm). The bubble chart did perform a bit of extrapolation to split the 14nm & 28nm revenue.
indigenous is also relative.
The problem is that people here REALLY underestimate how much embedded ASML is in the Chinese semiconductor industry, they don't only sell in China, they do a lot of research in China, they manufacture things in Beijing, the Shanghai ICRD has been an ASML R&D partner for years and that is not counting with the partnerships they have develop with Chinese fabs for years. They even developed a relationship with SMEE in 2017. ASML will fight any attempt to disrupt their sales in China.
I do agree. I have been reading that the plan is to mass produce sub-system and component for all kind lithography machines next year. It could a case for the Chinese government plans to impose the use of homemade lithography machines if the fab is subsidized by Chinese government money at least for older technologies like KrF and dry ArF and the in the near future with immersion.
The problem is that people here REALLY underestimate how much embedded ASML is in the Chinese semiconductor industry, they don't only sell in China, they do a lot of research in China, they manufacture things in Beijing, the Shanghai ICRD has been an ASML R&D partner for years and that is not counting with the partnerships they have develop with Chinese fabs for years. They even developed a relationship with SMEE in 2017. ASML will fight any attempt to disrupt their sales in China.
I know, but i did it to have a easy way to "guess-estimate" the contribution of that node compared to the value in the graph.
Do you have the official report with their annual revenue by tech node? I can't find it anywhere.
I think SMIC purposely "hide" the exact breakdown of 7/14/28nm, they lump them in one grouping
The overall 28nm and below share is actually higher than the average value you calculated because Q4 revenue is quite high and the <28nm share is highest in Q4 '21.
. Chart above on page 11 of the annual report.
Last edited:
SMIC is running at above 100% utilization (even skipping scheduled maintenance) on all of their lines. That's the reality, the numbers just reflect price changes (they refer to sell values) and have little to do with actual capacity, that unfortunately increased just a little bit in the last year.
SMIC just needs to put online new capacity and it will be already all sold off immediately. Some fab are under construction but real new capacity is scheduled only for 2023....if some surprise does not occur before....
If SMIC succeds in putting online their new fabs, even a ban of ASML will have a lesser effect. Time window for US to act is just 6-8 months now, not more, they really cannot wait until Trump 2.0
- Status