Chinese semiconductor industry

gelgoog said:

People posted bidding info of a late build fab by a Chinese IDM here. It had next to no US equipment in the list. It was all Chinese except for ASML lithography machines.

SMIC has the capabilities to produce anything if they had relevant access to necessary machine tools. They have already proven this more than once. SMIC isn't the problem. SMIC has 14nm FinFET in full production with high yields and 10nm is in production as well.

And, of course, much like with Chinese exascale supercomputing, SMIC isn't going to go around saying what are their actual yields. Even in the best of times this is typically considered corporate secret information. When you see such numbers from companies like Intel they are typically only provided a year or two after mass production rate was achieved. This information is typically only presented to limited audiences. Giving out this information basically tells your competitors what is your production capacity and production cost per wafer. They can then use this information to squeeze you out.

14nm and lower require more passes and to be efficient you need more lithography machines. You might require twice the machines or more. Currently ASML has been having delays with machine deliveries and they already burned SMIC more than once. Given the extra expense in building such production facilities it makes sense for SMIC to focus on 28nm.

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tonyget said:

If ASML's lithography machines is the only foreign equipment needed in Chinese fab，then the fab equipment localization rate in China would over 90%，which is clearly not the case.

Of course 14nm is more expensive than 28nm，advanced note always costs more than mature nodes. That does not however, sway fabless away from pursuing advanced note，because the superior performance of advanced note simply can not offset by lower costs of mature nodes.

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tokenanalyst said:

Seeing the biddings looks like Chinese semi equipment are getting most of the orders along with their Asians counterparts, Singapore Koreans and Japan. American companies are probably getting less orders than used to be but is hard to tell because some fabs sign secret contracts with suppliers.
Some companies like LAM and KLA are starting to manufacture their equipment overseas to evade sanctions and restore their reputation as reliable suppliers.

Its looks like for its size, being the biggest SME company, Applied Materials, their reputation as reliable supplier is suffering a hit.
ASML is getting high score, they are too much a "too big to fail" company, that has been allowed to monopolize the industry.

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tonyget said:

If ASML's lithography machines is the only foreign equipment needed in Chinese fab，then the fab equipment localization rate in China would over 90%，which is clearly not the case.

Of course 14nm is more expensive than 28nm，advanced note always costs more than mature nodes. That does not however, sway fabless away from pursuing advanced note，because the superior performance of advanced note simply can not offset by lower costs of mature nodes.

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tokenanalyst said:

You are confusing things, localization rate is not just about the capabilities of the equipment but also the capacity of companies like Naura and AMEC to meet the demand,They have the equipment (with whatever close capability) or they are working towards it, but they also have to increase production, so is a work in progress that is advancing quickly.
Personally i thing the goal should be the De-Americanization because is a clear and present danger, is not about Chinese nationalism or "China national security" or even Chinese government dream anymore, is a survival issue and if Chinese electronics and semi companies don't see it that way, they are doomed.
I have seen some people in the industry inside China in their delusions saying "is just the cutting edge, everything else is fine, lets not hurry" ignoring the clear evidence.
-What YTMC does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
-What SMIC does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
-What Hua Hong does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
- That Newport fab is not even close to the cutting edge. They want to kill.

The only difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats wants to go multilateral (spoiler: is not going to work as American wants) and Republican who wants a full blown unilateral semiconductor embargo to China. There is a high probability of a Trump lead Republican victory in 2024 unless the "do nothing, water down Republican" Democratic party do something about the Economy and the well being of their own people instead of playing "age of empire" in real life and screaming "CHINA" all the time. Or a miracle happens.


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FairAndUnbiased said:

I agree with everything except 1: YMTC is indeed leading edge in many ways.

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tokenanalyst said:

When i said "leading edge" i refer to anything process below 7nm whatever that really means, were expensive cutting edge equipment like EUV may be necessary. No any specific technology like Xtacking.

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tokenanalyst said:

You are confusing things, localization rate is not just about the capabilities of the equipment but also the capacity of companies like Naura and AMEC to meet the demand,They have the equipment (with whatever close capability) or they are working towards it, but they also have to increase production, so is a work in progress that is advancing quickly.
Personally i thing the goal should be the De-Americanization because is a clear and present danger, is not about Chinese nationalism or "China national security" or even Chinese government dream anymore, is a survival issue and if Chinese electronics and semi companies don't see it that way, they are doomed.
I have seen some people in the industry inside China in their delusions saying "is just the cutting edge, everything else is fine, lets not hurry" ignoring the clear evidence.
-What YTMC does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
-What SMIC does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
-What Hua Hong does is hardly cutting edge. They want to kill it.
- That Newport fab is not even close to the cutting edge. They want to kill.

The only difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats wants to go multilateral (spoiler: is not going to work as American wants) and Republican who wants a full blown unilateral semiconductor embargo to China. There is a high probability of a Trump lead Republican victory in 2024 unless the "do nothing, water down Republican" Democratic party do something about the Economy and the well being of their own people instead of playing "age of empire" in real life and screaming "CHINA" all the time. Or a miracle happens.


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tphuang said:

At this point, I think it would be a good thing if America does a wider ban on Chinese semiconductor industry after the midterms. I think at this point, a lot of Chinese companies still don't get the current us political climate because the only western contact they have are the chamber of commerce type that have always favored coupling and engagement. As such, they don't help Chinese suppliers that need cooperation to grow. They probably need a hard lesson to really learn.
I feel bad for American suppliers that the politicians don't have a good sense and only understand applying sanctions, but it is what it is.

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