Lets decompose this logically. EUVL is essentially 2 major components. 1) Light source 2) Mirrors for collecting and focusing light
1) Light source --> A high power laser inside a vacuum that is timed to hit tin to produce EUV light.
2) Mirrors --> Same as the ones used in space telescopes
Im pretty sure China has all the components necessary to build a prototype EUV machine. Given that China has plenty of experience with direct energy weapons and space Telescopes, etc.
In my opinion, the problem isn't the components, its a matter of combining the components together and perfecting it. Lithography is challenging because you need to have minimal variation in what your trying to print.
Will it take 10 yrs? I doubt it. They aren't starting from scratch.
Remember it took ASML 10 yrs to perfect EUV. But it doesn't mean anything. First of all, ASML as a private company is beholden to financial planning. Investors are short sighted and always want to milk current technology for short term returns. I doubt they were throwing the kitchen sink at EUV. There were also no demand until 7nm. TSMC wanted to do everything in its power to milk the 193nm excimer laser machines until they couldn't anymore before upgrading to EUV.
Plus, europeans work 10-4 days, they aren't desperate for a EUV breakthrough.
China on the other IS throwing the kitchen sink at EUV. its not just one company or institution, essentially anyone in the entire country of 1.5 billion people who has any expertise in the components listed are tasked to work on this project. Huawei is working 24 hours 7 days a week. I imagine the same for the project.
Lastly, China benefits from the fact that many of the people who work at ASML are from China. So there is a good chance a lot of data is being leaked.