Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

nativechicken

Junior Member
Registered Member
I see. But why didn’t the Soviet Union deploy such weapon (intermediate range anti-ship ballistic missiles with MARV) after the completion of the GLONASS-type global satellite navigation and positioning systems to challenge NATO’s dominance of the sea?

On the other hand, the current Chinese systems (DF-21D, 26D, 17, and 27) relies on a large kill chain comprised of satellites, over the horizon radars, numerous ground-based receiving and transmission nodes, UAV, and even naval vessels, etc. Wouldn’t it be pretty easy to sabotage and target any node of this kill chain to cause the entire system to malfunction?
This system is not easy to destroy or disrupt. The principles of Network-Centric Warfare also draw from the architecture and logic of the internet—there is no single central node (such nodes are buried deep underground, and even nuclear-level strikes might not be effective). Moreover, many of these nodes, whether launch vehicles or sensors (like skywave radar, surface-wave radar), are actually beyond the U.S.’s ability to attack. For the U.S. to execute an attack, its aircraft would have to penetrate deep into China’s interior or coastal areas. That’s impossible today because the kill chain has pushed the U.S. back 1,000–2,000 km. At that distance, U.S. attack methods and intensity are very limited.

Furthermore, land targets are area targets, while maritime targets are isolated points. A few U.S. assets trying to attack a landmass of China’s size is a drop in the bucket. Meanwhile, the number of U.S. maritime and peripheral bases is limited; they are isolated points. Once destroyed, they’re gone and difficult to restore in the short term.

The weakness the U.S. has assessed actually lies in the so-called space-based data links and communication channels—i.e., destroying or jamming a few key communication satellites to disrupt the kill chain. What I want to say is: China’s space-based observation network (currently over 300 satellites, expected to exceed a thousand or more in the future) has core nodes in geosynchronous orbit, which is very difficult to attack. Additionally, China has truly built a battlefield satellite emergency replenishment system. Industrialized production of various satellites is now in full swing (in the past, satellites were handcrafted one by one). Moreover, China possesses the means for direct attacks from low Earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit. Therefore, the U.S. can no longer quickly eliminate these sensors and communication systems.

Other countries, whether Russia, the EU, or Japan, South Korea, and India, lack the capability to build such a system. It is an extremely complex system requiring hundreds of thousands of defense industry professionals advancing across thousands of specialized fields. It takes a 30-year cycle to complete. China’s development of its network-centric warfare system actually began at the end of the last century, and it has now accumulated about 30 years of effort. The total expenditure is approximately close to the trillion-dollar level. Other countries, including the United States, do not even have the human resources to develop such a system. In areas like advanced radar, for example, the U.S. has almost allowed its capabilities to deteriorate. Not to mention, the U.S. domestic education system is inadequate. It can no longer supply local talent to high-tech industries, and even the highly skilled blue-collar workers required for cutting-edge industries are in short supply. The various fundamental issues encountered with Boeing’s 737 MAX and the Space Launch System (SLS) illustrate this point.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
HGV cannot suppress subs the way it does to surface ships. The same weapon could be used others denying China the surface navy. Once both sides are committed to using subs the detection becomes diffcult again. Needlessly to say the skirmish nature of naval warfare continues, just like mongolian horde of the past. HGV and radar is not changing fog of war. US still has a vast submarine fleet.

That’s a rather unreasonable assumption that if China can do something everyone else can as well. If there is one truly defining characteristic of modern China, is that it routinely takes on and succeeds at the kinds of projects other nations reject as impossible or unaffordable.

The collective western world refused to believed AShBMs was possible until after China did a live test.

The U.S. has invested countless billions over decades into R&D into hypersonics and how many operational systems and weapons have they got?

Hypersonics weapons aren’t really relevant if you cannot afford to deploy them at scale. So even if the U.S. finally fields one, it’s impact will be minimal if the US can only afford to deploy a handful of them.

As for subs, they will be a problem, but without surface fleet protection, they are far more vulnerable and less useful when operating in areas were opfor enjoys total domination of the surface and skies, as airborne ASW assets will make their lives very difficult and any attack launched by them a potential suicide mission.
 

Totoro

Major
VIP Professional
Multiple 90 degree turns and maintaining >mach 5 terminal velocity sounds ridiculous. The trade-off in altitude will likely bleed more speed than gain, and longer the HGV spends at these lower altitudes beyond terminal phase, the more speed it will lose. There is nothing particularly special about HGV construction that stops it from having to make those heavy tradeoffs.
Nice to have some civil conversation. My comments on the nature of HGVs were based on a paper simulating HGV body and its trajectories that I once read with some nice graphs showing various details. It basically summarized everything important into not too many pages. I made an effort to find it again, so here it is, for anyone interested in learning more about it all. I do recommend it:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

While it did lead me and still leads me to the conclusion that HGVs can have enough energy to approach a target from a general rear area approach, if needed, and still remain hypersonic - it is true I did misremember some details - which can essentially be summed up as: it's unlikely "several" 90 degree turns can be made. More like maybe 2 such turns can be made if HGV is fast and large enough. Probably requiring a bigger and faster booster than DF-27 uses? For most other, somewhat smaller HGV boosters, their end speed might fall below mach 5, not making them hypersonic near their impact point. So I'd be more fair to say that turning 150 degrees (give or take some), instead of 180 degrees, would be the limit for a large HGV going at, say, 6 km/s at booster separation. That should also apply to a notional 8000 km HGV, assuming DF-27 can do that.

For those who do not wish to read the paper, here's a summary of modeled trajectories for a 6 km/s starting velocity example, using the HTV-2 shaped glider:
Its total glide range, if going straight, is some 7400 km.
Its starting altitude is something like 49 km.
Its glide time is around 37 minutes.
Its sort of phases into terminal dive around 30 km in altitude, approximately 6500 km downrange. At said point, its speed is around 4.4 km/s.
At the time it impacts, its velocity drops further due to much denser air, and is around 2.5 km/s, which would be around Mach 8.

Now, all that is if the 6 km/s glider is going straight. If it makes a 90 degree turn, its overall range and lateral distance covered will depend on the bank angle. But long story short, with the turn optimized for highest end speed, the HGV will have crossed 1700 km downrange and 2400 km laterally, if straightening after the turn. If not, its speed after the 90 degree turn might be some 3.2 km/s, and after making another 90 degree turn, speed extrapolated from graphs suggests around 1.7 km/s. (mach 5.6) That's still before the very final dive which should shed more speed due to denser air so terminal impact speed might be around mach 3.5. Feel free to check the graphs and check the math here.

So yeah, while a bigger missile going over 7 m/s (that's enough for 13 000 km of range!) and perhaps with an even more optimized glider might somehow eek out to mach 5 terminal impact speed after 180 degrees of turns, most HGVs probably won't. While making one 90 degree turn is fairly easy, resulting in still very decent terminal velocity, probably only a better part of the second turn could be made, but not entire turn - if one wishes the terminal impact speed to be at above mach 5. Of course, for various other mission parameters, if one wants extra range or even higher impact speeds, then even smaller turns could be made. Bottom line - for more and bigger turns - especially coupled with longer range and higher retained speed - it's better to use the fastest HGV possible.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
I've been saying since the "Assassin's Mace" ASBM days (2009 - 2012), before ASBMs became more well discussed in the late 2010s (back then was mostly westoids claiming ASBM is impossible due to ion cloud despite there already being published methods around this even back then), that the most impressive thing about China's A2AD system back then comprising of ASBMs like DF-21D and DF-26 was the entire backend ecosystem and that no one else save the US has a hope to even realise such a technological marvel.

This was and still is why I scoff at the idea of Iran, India and others who talk about ASBMs they are developing/ fielding. These guys are calling ballistic missiles with fins as ASBMs without even a single wind tunnel that reaches above mach 3 in their nations. I mean we're barely scratching the surface of the iceberg with adequate simulations. The US is barely able to develop ASBMs and Indians online will happily claim they have it (and shockingly claim they are the best at it). Meanwhile the space technology gap between China/US and India is heaven and earth. Iran doesn't have a real space program/technology ecosystem worth writing about. Russia is in dramatic decline and will not be able to realise her space ambitions despite having such a great start during the USSR.

A realised Prompt Global Strike weapon platform was and is exactly what China's expanding A2AD modernised system is. It is still so far the only nation that has mastered wedged glider HGV and demonstrated FOBS, limit to range doesn't exist but limit to cost and manufacturing probably does. Since the base technology allowing PGS is mastered, the rest is simply the choice of booster to use. Does anyone think the HGV payload craft on a DF-27 missile is limited in range to the DF-27's glider? Does anyone wonder what the DF-5C's payloads are that are allowing unlimited range? ICBMs already impart enough energy for any suitably designed ICBM boosted warhead to circumnavigate the Earth many times. Sept 2025 parade unveiled DF-5C and CJ-1000 HCM as some truly novel weapon platforms but the reputable voices already mentioned at least one DF-5C ranged (ie unlimited) weapon was pulled from disclosure. The issue isn't whether China posseses PGS capability, it has since DF-5C and FOBS weapon. Probably even since IRBM boosted HGVs like DF-27, the matter is cost, production scale and time to replenish. To do that, you'd need a damn good glider vehicle so you achieve at least CONUS range using boosters no larger than IRBMs otherwise you kill yourself with booster cost and production time. Sure it's worth trading a PGS energy DF-27 equivalent for a ship or part of a port if it takes longer and costs more to rebuild/repair than it takes for you to build another PGS unit but you still can't afford to expend them on less worthy targets.

The US version of PGS is their carrier delivering a jdam from a F-18/F-35/UCAV. The entire network-ecosystem. It's actually much more energy and material demanding than this new PGS system China has developed. But we're ignoring an entire side of China's military development. This is just China's assymetric development started in the 1990s, well after Qian Xuesen formed the technological basis. The main player here is China's symmetric development to match and exceed the US in every major platform and strategy as it travels along the catch up, match and overpower spectrum. China will have superior numbers and technology to the US from the match stage (accounting for some US advantage in experience and command). Platforms will differ somewhat according to where it is on the spectrum but we're already nearing the match part which is why we see plenty of areas where China has pulled ahead in. This is all just the observable side. Expect US intelligence to eventually realise and watch the US state react. It's already desperately acting out, now even pulling the aliens and UFO card for mass psychological warfare.

There will soon be a day where China's carrier count, tonnage and power output exceeds the US. The plots and trajectories are very clear to anyone who bothers to think and notice the reality of things.
 

charles18

Junior Member
Registered Member
I've been saying since the "Assassin's Mace" ASBM days (2009 - 2012), before ASBMs became more well discussed in the late 2010s (back then was mostly westoids claiming ASBM is impossible due to ion cloud despite there already being published methods around this even back then), that the most impressive thing about China's A2AD system back then comprising of ASBMs like DF-21D and DF-26 was the entire backend ecosystem and that no one else save the US has a hope to even realize such a technological marvel.
With the DF-27 missile, China can now execute an attack on CONUS despite the USA having superior air and naval power. However the size of the warhead on the DF-27 is only 1800 kg. As a comparison, an American long range bomber can easily carry 10 times that amount. An aircraft carrier can launch the equivalent of 60 times that amount in a single day and keep on going for 30 days straight before needing to reload.

In a WW3 scenario China can literally launch a DF-27 everyday at the USA and never achieve militarily victory.
The USA is big enough to absorb a 1800 kg bomb everyday indefinitely.
Perhaps the USA can be psychologically defeated and therefore give up on the war but that's not the same as a "military defeat".
An example of psychological but necessarily military defeat would be the USA in Vietnam war, the Iraq insurgency, and Afghanistan.
Since ASBMs cannot carry enough mass to achieve true power projection capabilities to military defeat an enemy, I agree they are an "Assassin's Mace". They are tools used by the underdog.

Or perhaps China can start building ASBMs the size of Long March 5 rockets ***joking***
 

Wrought

Captain
Registered Member
With the DF-27 missile, China can now execute an attack on CONUS despite the USA having superior air and naval power. However the size of the warhead on the DF-27 is only 1800 kg. As a comparison, an American long range bomber can easily carry 10 times that amount. An aircraft carrier can launch the equivalent of 60 times that amount in a single day and keep on going for 30 days straight before needing to reload.

In a WW3 scenario China can literally launch a DF-27 everyday at the USA and never achieve militarily victory.
The USA is big enough to absorb a 1800 kg bomb everyday indefinitely.
Perhaps the USA can be psychologically defeated and therefore give up on the war but that's not the same as a "military defeat".
An example of psychological but necessarily military defeat would be the USA in Vietnam war, the Iraq insurgency, and Afghanistan.
Since ASBMs cannot carry enough mass to achieve true power projection capabilities to military defeat an enemy, I agree they are an "Assassin's Mace". They are tools used by the underdog.

Or perhaps China can start building ASBMs the size of Long March 5 rockets ***joking***

A bomber or carrier can generate way more fires if and only if they have sufficient control of the air to prosecute heavily defended targets. The point of very long-range missiles is to remove that condition. Not to replace the air force or navy. PLARF exists, but so does PLAAF and PLAN.

Hypothetically speaking, imagine two peer forces battling it out to a stalemate in the air and sea domains. Except one of them has the ability to hit otherwise safe and soft targets way behind the front lines, degrading airbases and port infrastructure and supply hubs and so forth, with obvious implications on sortie generation and force regeneration and all the rest. Suddenly your peer contest is no longer between equals. Because very long-range missiles are an enabler for the rest of your joint forces, not the entirety of the force.

Not coincidentally, this is why Iran sucks (not to put too fine a point on it). You need a conventional military to back up the missiles.
 
Last edited:

nativechicken

Junior Member
Registered Member
With the DF-27 missile, China can now execute an attack on CONUS despite the USA having superior air and naval power. However the size of the warhead on the DF-27 is only 1800 kg. As a comparison, an American long range bomber can easily carry 10 times that amount. An aircraft carrier can launch the equivalent of 60 times that amount in a single day and keep on going for 30 days straight before needing to reload.

In a WW3 scenario China can literally launch a DF-27 everyday at the USA and never achieve militarily victory.
The USA is big enough to absorb a 1800 kg bomb everyday indefinitely.
Perhaps the USA can be psychologically defeated and therefore give up on the war but that's not the same as a "military defeat".
An example of psychological but necessarily military defeat would be the USA in Vietnam war, the Iraq insurgency, and Afghanistan.
Since ASBMs cannot carry enough mass to achieve true power projection capabilities to military defeat an enemy, I agree they are an "Assassin's Mace". They are tools used by the underdog.

Or perhaps China can start building ASBMs the size of Long March 5 rockets ***joking***
Regarding the DF-26/DF-27, if they were to strike the U.S. homeland, their role would be on par with intercontinental ballistic missiles like the Minuteman III or Midgetman.

It’s important to remember that in China, the DF-26/DF-27 are referred to as dual-capable (nuclear and conventional) tactical-strategic ballistic missiles. When equipped with conventional warheads, they are tools for ultra-long-range tactical precision strikes, designed to conduct precise, point-target elimination of high-value strategic and tactical assets—similar to the role of ASBMs.

However, when it comes to striking an adversary’s homeland, they become nuclear strike tools.

Actually, I’ve mentioned this before: China’s DF-2X series of medium-range ballistic missiles, in their conventional warhead configuration, are essentially medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 4,000–8,000 km. But once fitted with nuclear warheads, they immediately become intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 8,000–12,000 km (comparable to the U.S. Midgetman ICBM).

Therefore, the number of China’s nuclear delivery vehicles capable of striking the U.S. has long far exceeded what most people imagine.

Lastly, for China, U.S. strategic bombers pose little threat. During the recent U.S.-Iran war, well-known Chinese military bloggers have been closely tracking various U.S. Air Force deployments. Even before the war ended, they were already openly mocking the U.S. military’s performance (China has a group of dedicated military enthusiasts who, during the conflict, closely monitored the movements of U.S. B-2/B-52 bombers, transport aircraft, and tankers). The current state of the U.S. military’s ineptitude has left Chinese military personnel speechless—is this the level of the opponent China has been preparing to confront for decades?

The frequency of B-2/B-52 sorties, along with the missions that were canceled midway, have been meticulously cross-referenced by Chinese military enthusiasts using historical U.S. military operational data.

Twenty years ago, on Taiwanese military forums, I told them that if China were to attack Taiwan, it wouldn’t be as they imagined—using expensive tactical ballistic missiles to strike runways at Taiwanese airbases. For that kind of task, long-range rocket artillery with area saturation is far more suitable.

However, Taiwanese military enthusiasts insisted that China’s long-range rockets had a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of several kilometers, and only tactical ballistic missiles could achieve a CEP of 300 meters. They then calculated that it would take dozens to over a hundred ballistic missiles to cut a single runway, concluding that China’s ballistic missiles were useless and nothing to worry about. Anyone who discussed any topic other than using tactical ballistic missiles against runways was labeled a militarily illiterate idiot. Then, exercising their “democratic rights,” they banned all accounts with differing opinions, dismissing them as communist propaganda.

I hope people here don’t make the same mistake. In fact, even moderately knowledgeable Chinese military enthusiasts understand the limited payload of long-range ballistic missiles. If armed with conventional warheads, even hundreds of missiles would be utterly insufficient to destroy a city. Just as no one would use tactical ballistic missiles to cut runways—in reality, when striking airbase targets, tactical ballistic missiles are aimed at high-value assets like radar and communication facilities, anti-missile positions, hangars, and fuel depots. Only a fool would use them to bomb runways. Even for runway strikes, specialized anti-runway cluster munition warheads are used, whose accuracy isn’t measured by CEP at all.

The same logic applies to striking targets on the U.S. mainland with ton-level conventional warheads. If China were to use DF-27s with their 1-ton-plus warheads against the U.S. mainland, the targets would be high-value assets like nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers in U.S. home ports. There was actually a discussion earlier about the U.S. attempting to strike Chinese naval ports along the coast, hoping China would retaliate only against U.S. military assets in bases and ports in Japan and South Korea. I said at the time that if the U.S. really did that, China would absolutely ensure that even U.S. Navy vessels in American ports were no longer safe. That’s China’s logic of equivalent retaliation.
 

hkvaryag

Junior Member
Registered Member
Regarding the DF-26/DF-27, if they were to strike the U.S. homeland, their role would be on par with intercontinental ballistic missiles like the Minuteman III or Midgetman.

It’s important to remember that in China, the DF-26/DF-27 are referred to as dual-capable (nuclear and conventional) tactical-strategic ballistic missiles. When equipped with conventional warheads, they are tools for ultra-long-range tactical precision strikes, designed to conduct precise, point-target elimination of high-value strategic and tactical assets—similar to the role of ASBMs.

However, when it comes to striking an adversary’s homeland, they become nuclear strike tools.

Actually, I’ve mentioned this before: China’s DF-2X series of medium-range ballistic missiles, in their conventional warhead configuration, are essentially medium-range ballistic missiles with a range of 4,000–8,000 km. But once fitted with nuclear warheads, they immediately become intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 8,000–12,000 km (comparable to the U.S. Midgetman ICBM).

Therefore, the number of China’s nuclear delivery vehicles capable of striking the U.S. has long far exceeded what most people imagine.

Lastly, for China, U.S. strategic bombers pose little threat. During the recent U.S.-Iran war, well-known Chinese military bloggers have been closely tracking various U.S. Air Force deployments. Even before the war ended, they were already openly mocking the U.S. military’s performance (China has a group of dedicated military enthusiasts who, during the conflict, closely monitored the movements of U.S. B-2/B-52 bombers, transport aircraft, and tankers). The current state of the U.S. military’s ineptitude has left Chinese military personnel speechless—is this the level of the opponent China has been preparing to confront for decades?

The frequency of B-2/B-52 sorties, along with the missions that were canceled midway, have been meticulously cross-referenced by Chinese military enthusiasts using historical U.S. military operational data.

Twenty years ago, on Taiwanese military forums, I told them that if China were to attack Taiwan, it wouldn’t be as they imagined—using expensive tactical ballistic missiles to strike runways at Taiwanese airbases. For that kind of task, long-range rocket artillery with area saturation is far more suitable.

However, Taiwanese military enthusiasts insisted that China’s long-range rockets had a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of several kilometers, and only tactical ballistic missiles could achieve a CEP of 300 meters. They then calculated that it would take dozens to over a hundred ballistic missiles to cut a single runway, concluding that China’s ballistic missiles were useless and nothing to worry about. Anyone who discussed any topic other than using tactical ballistic missiles against runways was labeled a militarily illiterate idiot. Then, exercising their “democratic rights,” they banned all accounts with differing opinions, dismissing them as communist propaganda.

I hope people here don’t make the same mistake. In fact, even moderately knowledgeable Chinese military enthusiasts understand the limited payload of long-range ballistic missiles. If armed with conventional warheads, even hundreds of missiles would be utterly insufficient to destroy a city. Just as no one would use tactical ballistic missiles to cut runways—in reality, when striking airbase targets, tactical ballistic missiles are aimed at high-value assets like radar and communication facilities, anti-missile positions, hangars, and fuel depots. Only a fool would use them to bomb runways. Even for runway strikes, specialized anti-runway cluster munition warheads are used, whose accuracy isn’t measured by CEP at all.

The same logic applies to striking targets on the U.S. mainland with ton-level conventional warheads. If China were to use DF-27s with their 1-ton-plus warheads against the U.S. mainland, the targets would be high-value assets like nuclear submarines or aircraft carriers in U.S. home ports. There was actually a discussion earlier about the U.S. attempting to strike Chinese naval ports along the coast, hoping China would retaliate only against U.S. military assets in bases and ports in Japan and South Korea. I said at the time that if the U.S. really did that, China would absolutely ensure that even U.S. Navy vessels in American ports were no longer safe. That’s China’s logic of equivalent retaliation.
However, Taiwanese military enthusiasts insisted that China’s long-range rockets had a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of several kilometers, and only tactical ballistic missiles could achieve a CEP of 300 meters.>>>>>>>Not any kinds of Taiwanese military enthusiasts, but cyber warriors' internal propaganda only. They are totally blind to the last PHL-16 exercise which almost all the rockets hit the waves created by the pervious projectiles!
 

nativechicken

Junior Member
Registered Member
However, Taiwanese military enthusiasts insisted that China’s long-range rockets had a CEP (Circular Error Probable) of several kilometers, and only tactical ballistic missiles could achieve a CEP of 300 meters.>>>>>>>Not any kinds of Taiwanese military enthusiasts, but cyber warriors' internal propaganda only. They are totally blind to the last PHL-16 exercise which almost all the rockets hit the waves created by the pervious projectiles!
What I'm referring to happened more than 20 years ago. At that time, military magazines and publications in mainland China openly acknowledged that China's exported rockets were only equipped with simple inertial guidance, and that the low-cost tactical inertial guidance used in China's exported ballistic missiles had relatively large drift, resulting in a theoretical CEP of 1/1000. Therefore, the accuracy of ballistic missile inertial guidance was described as 1/1000 of the 300 km range, which is 300 meters. As for tactical long-range rockets, in order to achieve lower costs, the simple guidance they used was naturally considered to have only 1/100 accuracy (according to the Taiwanese perspective). This is the origin of their belief that tactical long-range rockets had a CEP on the kilometer scale, while tactical ballistic missiles had a theoretical CEP of 300 meters.

Back then, people in Taiwan did not believe China had the capability for GPS-guided systems (during the 1996 Taiwan Strait exercises, the U.S. shut down regional GPS guidance, causing missile test failures). They also did not believe China could develop low-cost fiber optic gyroscopes or integrated strapdown guidance technologies combining multiple navigation methods. Furthermore, they did not believe China could produce a terminal maneuver system for ballistic missiles similar to the Pershing II (in reality, China likely completed testing of a system similar to the Pershing II around 1998, achieving a CEP accuracy of less than 10 meters). Hence, they consistently refused to acknowledge these capabilities.
 
Top