Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

The problem was never tracking these weapons systems. The technology exists. The problem is intercepting them.
The interceptor needs to be faster than the weapon to have a chance of working.
Terminal phase interception also means you need to cover all possible targets with defense systems. That is never going to work.

Overbom said:

Not doubting you but what about having overlapping satellites (different height + angle) covering the same area, fusing the raw data and processing them with machine learning?

Presumably such a solution could work (especially if also aided with a large amount of small satellites hosting different types of sensors and then fusing all the data)

Click to expand...

Where are we getting the dataset to train this ML algorithm? That will require many hundreds (maybe thousands) of real-world launches and actual satellite data. And that's assuming you can even increase the raw resolution/accuracy by fusing different satellite angels etc. (the GiGo principle) through cloud cover. But let's assume that all of this is possible, and the cost of having X amount of satellites observing the same sector is all worthwhile. The question is whether the accuracy of this ML model ever be even close to 100%? If not, you'll end up back to the same saturation problem, but only after having wasted many billions of dollars first. Because what's of the point of spending X billions on a defense, when the opponent can spend X millions to easily saturate it?

PLA WS600L Hypersonic missile system

PLA WS600L Hypersonic missile system

WS600L is not a HGV system. It is just a very fast, very long range rocket like an MLRS system on steroids.

It seems to be a development from those pseudo ballistic missile, long range rockets. It just so happens to break through hypersonic speeds because it has a pseudo ballistic trajectory although the video seems to suggest it is guided and maneuverable. It is sort of a very inexpensive, low tier DF-ZF weapon for <300km targets and something a bit above the long range MLRS used by China that can hit targets within 1m accuracy from >200km away.

But is this in service with PLA?

Taiban said:

PLA WS600L Hypersonic missile system

Click to expand...

Says it can be launched from fishing boats as part of saturation attacks.

Mohsin77 said:

Time for a Quiz.

This is a picture of the proposed OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) system.

Can you spot the BS in this marketing slide ?

Do you see those clouds that are conveniently placed away from the launch site?

That's because Infrared sensors are horrible at seeing through water vapor.

So what happens when the launch takes place under cloud cover?

You mentioned the term "vaporware". Well, this is it, literally.

Click to expand...

This has been a solved problem since the early DSP times. Actually, weather has never been a real issue for Satellite Early Warning Systems......simply because you would need the ballistic missiles to fly under the weather to avoid lighting up the sats like a Christmas tree..

How have you reached this conclusion, friend? The technology for this is well understood and in use by multiple nations (including China) for 50 years now..

ougoah said:

WS600L is not a HGV system. It is just a very fast, very long range rocket like an MLRS system on steroids.

It seems to be a development from those pseudo ballistic missile, long range rockets. It just so happens to break through hypersonic speeds because it has a pseudo ballistic trajectory although the video seems to suggest it is guided and maneuverable. It is sort of a very inexpensive, low tier DF-ZF weapon for <300km targets and something a bit above the long range MLRS used by China that can hit targets within 1m accuracy from >200km away.

But is this in service with PLA?

Click to expand...

The 300 km rang is for export only to comply with intermediate range convention. The domestic variant has much larger range. It can make an evasive move from enemy anti ballistic missile. As well it can make curve trajectory or C trajectory to confuse enemy AD battery . I think this is fearsome weapon because it is cheap! and self contain as well as variety of munition head
very suitable for Taiwan contingency. It has the range the sophistication and can be produced in large number

Mohsin77 said:

Time for a Quiz.

This is a picture of the proposed OPIR (Overhead Persistent Infrared) system.

Can you spot the BS in this marketing slide ?

Do you see those clouds that are conveniently placed away from the launch site?

That's because Infrared sensors are horrible at seeing through water vapor.

So what happens when the launch takes place under cloud cover?

You mentioned the term "vaporware". Well, this is it, literally.

Click to expand...

The Dense cloud cover that would impede in IR detection only reaches to 10 to 15 km high ( in the Troposphere ). Hypersonic weapons have their trajectories in the double digit km/mile altitudes. The most vulnerable is during the initial Boost phase where it would climb to the maximum altitude ( Mesosphere/ Thermosphere) and its midcourse glide would be in the Meso/Stratosphere. Only for the terminal phase would it penetrate the cloud cover.

So, most time of its journey is spent significantly above the cloud cover. Infact, the low temperature of the clouds would offer better contrast against the plus 2K Celsius body of the hypersonic craft.

Hendrik_2000 said:

The 300 km rang is for export only to comply with intermediate range convention. The domestic variant has much larger range. It can make an evasive move from enemy anti ballistic missile. As well it can make curve trajectory or C trajectory to confuse enemy AD battery . I think this is fearsome weapon because it is cheap! and self contain as well as variety of munition head
very suitable for Taiwan contingency. It has the range the sophistication and can be produced in large number

Click to expand...

Ahh okay yes that makes sense. The treaties do limit export versions to 300km and I was wondering why it was so "short ranged" for what it is - a mini ballistic missile.

These things are really just super MLRS. I wouldn't consider this anything as sophisticated and capable as DF-100 or moving up a tier, HGV weapons. It is basically a more capable MLRS with superior (and more expensive) guidance and navigation equipment, more variety of warhead types and submunition storage for use where attrition is important.

The rocket and fuel tech that allows for this size, payload, range, and speed for extremely affordable costs is what makes this thing worth pursuing and fielding. Much faster than supersonic cruise missiles but less sophisticated trajectories. I mean this thing alone is a fraction the cost of a Brahmos and many times more effective (variety of warheads and submunitions also can be larger too) and longer ranged (PLARF's that is). It's also a low tier weapon for the PLA relative to the other things PLA have and yet likely superior to India's most advanced anti-surface weapon.