The most interesting and likely theory is, If DF-41 is called so because of 3 boost stages and a PBV, then ICBM with 3 Boost Stages and 3 IPBVs should be called DF-61.
Similar to that YARS test back in 17.
Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)
- Thread starter A.Man
- Start date
Similar to that YARS test back in 17.
Of course Victor Gao is bullsh1ting - Similar to the "Victor Gao Line" suggestion on the hypothetical demarcating the new Sino-Indian border which runs along the Ganges river.
For reference, here's what the MIRV bus of a Peacekeeper ICBM (which is slightly larger and heavier than the DF-41/61 ICBM) looks like, fitted with 10x W87-0 warheads of 300-kiloton yield each:
Hence, the question is how small do the nuclear warheads need to get in order for a DF-41/61-sized ICBM to carry 61 of them while still keeping the DF-61 a relevant strategic nuclear warhead delivery platform?
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If China were to attempt to make a radically more compact new nuclear weapon design I don't see it being actually used in missiles until/if the test ban treaty were broken by some other party. Would not trust a warhead with a novel design with deterrence until it could be tested outside of subcritical parameters.
When did I say I agreed with the 61x thing? IIRC he didn’t even say that in the clip, he said “we call it 61… it can hit any point on earth” (and a couple of other things suggesting something FOB-esque).
And in any case, my whole point is that he is an officially sanctioned person, so when he speaks on such matters, the only things we should be thinking / assessing are:
1. He has received some official information that is accurate and has accurately communicated it.
2. He has received some official information that is accurate, but has butchered the communication of it / made errors when speaking about it to English-language media as he’s not a military expert, it’s not his forté.
3. He has received some official information that is deliberately inaccurate, because the Strategic Department is running a particular angle on something.
All 3 possibilities still hold some value for PLA Watching.
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Would someone prominent; be able to travel around and talk to the world’s media about matters pertaining to the government of China; hold positions at state controlled or state funded institutions; and in fact be invited to be interviewed / speak on state owned media as well — if that was not in some way known to the state, and tolerated if not outright sanctioned (which means authorised, not the other English meaning of the same word)? You will also note that none of those words are capitalised.
He probably gets a page of talking points and topics to focus on or avoid.
He probably messed up the short bits of bland info that he’s privy to. Like 6 warheads in a circular arrangement plus 1 in the centre. Maybe with some combination of decoys or decoy (singular). And got confused because the missiles name is also DF-61 (who knows, maybe some like to call it 6-1 as a double entendre).
When I watched his spot after the parade, you could tell he was trying to recite something, and was making mistakes, but you could correct them as you’re watching because they were easy to spot or typical known misuses of terminology or slight misunderstandings (to people broadly familiar with the subject matter).
So what I’m saying is, we should take what he says, and spend only a few quick minutes, trying to see if we can get anything from his talking points, by parsing through the mixup or poor delivery of those dot points.
China is also clearly entering a new era in global engagement. From:
- Geng Shuang’s “mic drop” at the UN, saying — “I’m now authorised to talk a bit more about these matters… if we’d given Russia weapons, the war would already be over”
- The party issuing a directive about making cities have more green spaces, greater quality of living (to go with the dramatically decreasing pollution and air quality improvements); to being accepting and amiable when MoFA was asked about young Americans on the XHS / RedNote app; and going on a huge drive with the visa-free programs to bring more foreign tourists
- To all the official TV spots and uncharacteristic information reveals about the J-35 (surely intended to support sales of a future export version); to the way PLA watching has changed as, while there’s still that famous PLA OPSEC, they are clearly far more lenient / open to things being revealed.
The strategic foresight, patience, hard work, and meticulous planning of the CPC and China as a whole, is a great thing for the future of humanity.
The US has even forced their hand, to move a little bit early on some of their monetary and global finance plans, with what they’ve just started doing with gold, the Shanghai Gold Exchange’s new international locations with gold-backed financial instruments (like gold warrants) and Yuan-gold trading.
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