Chinese Hypersonic Developments (HGVs/HCMs)

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Skybolt was canceled before it ever entered service. It was also innacurate by design. Only good as a nuclear delivery method.

Kinzhal is actually useable.

Avangard was tracked by US satellites on like 2016 I think. It is known to work.
The only question the Russians had was about the launch vehicle. R36M2 was made in Ukraine, UR-100 was obsolete, Sarmat was nowhere. Miniaturizing the Avangard RV to put in something like RS-26 Rubezh would also take time.

Yep and I didn't say Skybolt was a service weapon or serviceable. Just that ALBM is not a new thing Kinzhal perfected. Nor was it that much of a challenge hence why I dont rate Kinzhal in the same level as the other "hypersonics". That was the only point I tried to make with the 1960s Skybolt project.

While Avangard was tracked by US in 2016, US was tracking Chinese hypersonic gliders since 2013. It doesn't mean much if we don't know the thing they were tracking, its performance and readiness. This doesn't prove Avangard was in service in 2016. Putin said Russia had Avangard in 2018. Assuming this as official disclosure and that this disclosure from Putin is indication of Avangard having reached service (if not earlier), then indeed it precedes the known earliest official announcement of service for DF-17 which was 2019. This is just official word on a weapon being in service. Weapon A could have reached service in 2010 but announced in 2020 while Weapon B in service 2019 and announced 2019. Doesn't mean Weapon B was first.

Russia however did have all the tools to have fielded their glider before China though. Both were all in the same decade at least and possibly even the same adjacent years.

I guess my disregard for Avangard and Zircon comes from Russia having never even shown the world a glimpse of just their shape. Meanwhile US and China are both more secretive nations than Russia when it comes to cutting edge military programs and both US and China have been very comfortable showing the wares they allow the public to see.

Russia showed off T-50 prototypes over a decade before Su-57 reached RuAF. Russia showed off the T-14 over a decade before it can even be produced in any real number. Same with SAMs. Meanwhile China showed the new armoured vehicles when they've already hit service and production is probably gearing up. SAMs of essentially more types than the rest of the world combined as they already hit service. J-20 first prototype sight 2011, 6 years before first unit in PLAAF. US is somewhere in between. Russia certainly shows off more (post Soviet era) and is more willing to show the world. And yet not even a glimpse at what avangard and zircon really look like. Every other missile they've shown off well before becoming a mainstay.

I get that these are somewhat strategic weapons but if US and even China are comfortable showing some, either US and China's no shows are far more advanced than the shows or Russia not showing is to take advantage of ambiguity to improve image of strength in these times where it does need to present strength rather than hide strength. Avangard at most is just a plain glider similar to DF-17, maybe smaller, maybe larger. Meanwhile China's continued hundreds of hypersonic flights and up to mach 30 tunnels with more computing power in single cities than all of Russia.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
Zircon has been in service for several years.

It would not be too surprising if the YJ-19 was better in some way being a newer missile.

But from what I understand the Russians call the Avangard and Zircon first generation hypersonics for a reason. Their replacements are already in development.

As for Russian compute power for simulations don't assume the Russians have no supercomputers just because they don't publish about it. Ever since the US started sanctioning companies like T-Platforms all the public info on supercomputers in Russia went dark.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Zircon has been in service for several years.

It would not be too surprising if the YJ-19 was better in some way being a newer missile.

But from what I understand the Russians call the Avangard and Zircon first generation hypersonics for a reason. Their replacements are already in development.

As for Russian compute power for simulations don't assume the Russians have no supercomputers just because they don't publish about it. Ever since the US started sanctioning companies like T-Platforms all the indo on supercomputers in Russia went dark.

Yea look I dont underestimate Russians or even Russia. It has some top, top tier talent and given the resources countries like China and US have, I think Russia would produce "cooler" and more advanced weapons and technology than China or US.

I don't think Russia is in this MIC race anymore. Nor is it racing in any of the major industries. Many of its top tier talents have gone to Europe and US and continue to. In the funding, national development, talent acquisition and retention domains, Russia is running slower and decelerating. Europe is barely breaking even and US China seem to be both running on fumes but still making progress. The only ones accelerating. In this sort of environment I just dont see how a Russia can keep up. It is far less well funded, running a war, has far fewer talents than US or China and has far lower availability of resources like computing power, access to equipment (sanctions), top tier modern institutions and facilities.

Russia's new strategy appears to be preserve itself and wait it out. US will degrade like the UK has. China will be a decent enough neighbour. EU will become more Russia tolerant. Then it will make moves after all the current animosity is more settled. It has several things going for it. All the resources and land one could want and enough of an intelligent, capable population to exploit better times.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
It depends on what sector you are talking about. Russia is ahead in hypersonics and nuclear power. But they are behind, a lot behind, in other sectors.
Russia is behind in electronics, piston engines, EVs, etc.
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
"If (...) China manage to field an air breathing glider, combining the best of both types, that would indeed be a high end weapon that would extent the range even further but current technologies appear to suggest such a thing is still far from achievable (...)

So we have Hypersonic Glider Cruise Missile (HGCM) >> HGV > HCM"

(ougoah)

---

This
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
In theory yes. The technology used in a cruise missile can further be developed into a recon or bomber platform with further development.
For that you need longer lasting and higher power engines than in the cruise missile.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
Cute orca said Zircon was "trash" that is completely incomparable to YJ19:oops:

Well both Zircon and YJ-19 are the only in service ship launched hypersonic cruise missiles.

Yes YJ-19 appears to be a more modern missile and made later so we'd expect them to be incomparable.

Zircon though I'm curious if it indeed looks as the Ukrainians have drawn it ie a Hyfly like missile. Artist impressions of all these HCMs are like the X-43A. Perhaps orca think (or has access to information) that shows Zircon to be no more than Hyfly in tech level. My gut feel is Hyfly, Zircon, Linyun 1 are all early ramjet - scramjet "dual purpose" engine powered basic tube missiles. Strapping a working scramjet to a missile and calling it a day. Barely any decent turning capability and engine optimised to keep working since those are early day scramjets.

YJ-19's engine is different and the missile is designed to turn well enough. After all, YJ-19 is an anti-ship missile designed to hit moving targets. Zircon is a land attack missile designed to hit static targets. We know nothing of indicative claimed speed of YJ-19 at the moment. Zircon is claimed to be around mach 8 at some point of flight.
 

W20

Junior Member
Registered Member
Once again, someone in the West (between Moscow and San Francisco) imagines something and fantasizes and brags with pretty artistic drawings, and meanwhile ... Chinese scientists and engineers are two generations ahead ... in the real world.
 

ougoah

Brigadier
Registered Member
It depends on what sector you are talking about. Russia is ahead in hypersonics and nuclear power. But they are behind, a lot behind, in other sectors.
Russia is behind in electronics, piston engines, EVs, etc.

I don't think it's true Russia is ahead in hypersonics or nuclear power at all.

There's literally zero evidence for hypersonics whereas China has fielded at least their second generation of hypersonic gliders and at least first gen of cruise missile, Russia is at gen 1 for glider and gen 1 for cruise and I think this is giving them a bit more credit.

Nuclear power im less familiar with but China has got 3 different experimental reactor types running concurrently.

On renewables, computing, chips, cars, energy storage, digital infrastructure, cloud computing, shipbuilding, space. Yeah Russia is either far behind or getting lapped with over 1 generation gap.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
For what it's worth, the vehicles carrying these munitions are definitely not launchers; rather, they look like the parade-specific display platforms that the YJ-18 and other naval missiles were carried on in previous parades.

Which kind of implies that these missiles are either VLS-borne or at least shipborne.

I wouldn’t be so sure they are not launchers. They look like an evolutionary developed of the HQ12 launcher. But of course they are not meant to be launchers for the missiles they are displaying for the parade.

I would say they are most likely repurposed for the parade, with parts taken off to allow them to serve as display carriers, as opposed to parade-specific vehicles that serve no other purpose. A subtle but important distinction, especially in context of how ridiculously tight the PLA land forces have always been with money.
 
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