Chinese General Advocates Attacks on Somali Mainland
- Thread starter cn_habs
- Start date
solarz
Brigadier
I think it's inevitable that this will change. What better excuse for making this change than to do it based on humanitarian concerns and global "responsibility", such as fighting piracy?
escobar
Brigadier
This policy should have been changed long ago. I wonder if they expect to change it one day.
I think only a major event will force.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I think some of you are making too much out of this.
Piracy is a problem, but with naval escorts/patrols and increasingly large proportion of ships passing through the dangerous areas having armed guards, the success rates of hijackings have fallen significantly.
Somali pirates are more of an annoyance rather than a serious threat to world shipping right now (not that they ever posed much of a threat to seriously disrupt the shipping lanes), and that is reflected by the relatively small number of warships the world's major powers are sending to patrol the area.
The likes of the US, China, hell, anyone who currently have ships on patrol in the area, could double or even triple the number of ships they commit to the mission without too much hardship, and if the pirates adapt to the current defensive measures and start to actually threaten to seriously disrupt the shipping lanes, then that is what the world will do long before anyone thinks about putting boots on the ground in Somalia.
The political dimension alone would preclude sending in ground troops to occupy the Somali coast by anyone because of the very high cost that would require. In addition, while China has been steadily building up it's power projection capabilities, it is still at the very least a decade away from being able to mount an operation of this size that far away from China.
The Somali pirates and warlords can offer no real conventional military challenge to an amphibious landing, but the sheer size of the area in question would require more long range amphibious assets than China has. In addition, an operation of that scale would require massive logistical support, and should not be undertaken without building up a string of logistical supply bases along the way and near the area of operation. China doesn't have any of that in place, and to launch such an operation before then would be almost doomed to failure before you even start, as the supply lines are stretched to breaking point.
The PLAN could launch a smaller operation now, but unless you reach the required critical mass, doing so will not fundamentally solve the problem of piracy in the region. In the very best case scenario, you might knock out pirate bases, free hostages and kill a bunch of pirates for very little loss, but they will just set up shop again as soon as you leave. In a more realistic scenario, you loose some guys and a bunch of hostages are killed and everyone is on your back about that.
So even ignoring politics, the logistics alone would rule this out.
But realistically, politics could not be ruled out.
If China wants to set up bases in Africa at some point, it would desperately want to avoid it's first base being set up through the use of force. What kind of image is that projecting to the Africans and the world?
China has enough haters in the western media without giving them such perfect material to spin their China Threat agenda.
In addition, the Somali piracy problem is actually a boon to the PLAN while it is a bane to most other navies. The PLAN needs to conduct long range training anyways, so this provides the perfect pre-text, and none of it's haters in the western media could spin this into a China Threat piece, as you know they would if China started sending warships to exercise and patrol anywhere else in the world. Just look at the lunatic reaction of some sections of the western media every time a Chinese fleet passes anywhere near Japan (even in international waters) while transiting to training areas in the Pacific.
In the future, you can expect the first real overseas deployment of the Varyag and future Chinese carriers to be to Aden to patrol against pirates.
This offers the PLAN the double benefit of allowing them to train in real operational yet minimal threat environment without anyone able to make the usual China Threat claims, and also could help to change western perception (but more realistically, everyone else's) of the Chinese military as a force for good instead of the usual part of potential threat the western media and Hollywood tries to cast it in.
So why would China wants to spend a great amount of wealth, and probably a great many lives, to go fight an almost unwinnable war far from home when the status quo serves their interests just fine?
Piracy is a problem, but with naval escorts/patrols and increasingly large proportion of ships passing through the dangerous areas having armed guards, the success rates of hijackings have fallen significantly.
Somali pirates are more of an annoyance rather than a serious threat to world shipping right now (not that they ever posed much of a threat to seriously disrupt the shipping lanes), and that is reflected by the relatively small number of warships the world's major powers are sending to patrol the area.
The likes of the US, China, hell, anyone who currently have ships on patrol in the area, could double or even triple the number of ships they commit to the mission without too much hardship, and if the pirates adapt to the current defensive measures and start to actually threaten to seriously disrupt the shipping lanes, then that is what the world will do long before anyone thinks about putting boots on the ground in Somalia.
The political dimension alone would preclude sending in ground troops to occupy the Somali coast by anyone because of the very high cost that would require. In addition, while China has been steadily building up it's power projection capabilities, it is still at the very least a decade away from being able to mount an operation of this size that far away from China.
The Somali pirates and warlords can offer no real conventional military challenge to an amphibious landing, but the sheer size of the area in question would require more long range amphibious assets than China has. In addition, an operation of that scale would require massive logistical support, and should not be undertaken without building up a string of logistical supply bases along the way and near the area of operation. China doesn't have any of that in place, and to launch such an operation before then would be almost doomed to failure before you even start, as the supply lines are stretched to breaking point.
The PLAN could launch a smaller operation now, but unless you reach the required critical mass, doing so will not fundamentally solve the problem of piracy in the region. In the very best case scenario, you might knock out pirate bases, free hostages and kill a bunch of pirates for very little loss, but they will just set up shop again as soon as you leave. In a more realistic scenario, you loose some guys and a bunch of hostages are killed and everyone is on your back about that.
So even ignoring politics, the logistics alone would rule this out.
But realistically, politics could not be ruled out.
If China wants to set up bases in Africa at some point, it would desperately want to avoid it's first base being set up through the use of force. What kind of image is that projecting to the Africans and the world?
China has enough haters in the western media without giving them such perfect material to spin their China Threat agenda.
In addition, the Somali piracy problem is actually a boon to the PLAN while it is a bane to most other navies. The PLAN needs to conduct long range training anyways, so this provides the perfect pre-text, and none of it's haters in the western media could spin this into a China Threat piece, as you know they would if China started sending warships to exercise and patrol anywhere else in the world. Just look at the lunatic reaction of some sections of the western media every time a Chinese fleet passes anywhere near Japan (even in international waters) while transiting to training areas in the Pacific.
In the future, you can expect the first real overseas deployment of the Varyag and future Chinese carriers to be to Aden to patrol against pirates.
This offers the PLAN the double benefit of allowing them to train in real operational yet minimal threat environment without anyone able to make the usual China Threat claims, and also could help to change western perception (but more realistically, everyone else's) of the Chinese military as a force for good instead of the usual part of potential threat the western media and Hollywood tries to cast it in.
So why would China wants to spend a great amount of wealth, and probably a great many lives, to go fight an almost unwinnable war far from home when the status quo serves their interests just fine?
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solarz
Brigadier
Actually, that's exactly why China *could* want to put boots on the ground in Somali. Who says China is really looking to get rid of the piracy problem? Like you said, a small force wouldn't cover enough ground and it would be a game of cat and mouse. Which might be exactly what the cat is looking for. Why train only your navy when you can train your army as well?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
I don't think shooting up hopelessly outgunned opponents and getting blown up by IEDs would offer much useful training for Chinese soldiers.
Even if it did, the cost in treasure and lives would not be remotely worth the limited experience the soldiers would gain. And we are not even touching on the political costs of western media showing footage of civilians allegedly shot by Chinese troops or killed by Chinese bombs.
You can spend a tiny fraction of the cost of such a commitment on a state-of-the-art training facility with moving targets and realistic urban environments and get far far better training results for no casualties or political fall out.
There are many good reasons to go in to Somalia, training your soldiers is not one of them.
solarz
Brigadier
I disagree. Pirates are not insurgents or jihadists, they're criminals. They do what they do because it's profitable. When pirate bosses get whacked, the rest of them will lay low and consider a new choice of careers. These guys seek wealth in this world, not the next.
Training soldiers would be a secondary goal. The main benefit would be the opportunity to establish an apparently benign military presence in the region.
As for other considerations:
1- China is far more capable of accepting losses of lives. Look at how much danger Chinese workers who work in unstable states face. These are just civilians. They're willing to risk their lives because of higher pay.
2- China will not be bombing anyone. Any operation against pirate bases will be carried out jointly with international or local somali forces. That would be the only acceptable way of carrying out operations.
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It's not necessary to catch the pirates -- merely preventing them from pirating is enough. Sweep the coast and destroy all deep sea capable boats, and compensate their owners for it. Distribute free food to the fishermen so they can sell it and maintain their livelihood. Setup watch points so pirates cannot start building boats.
Even if the pirates get desperate enough to attach watch points or food distribution center, they really have no chance against dug-in trained soldiers. This is not anti-insurgency -- no patrolling is involved, so there is less of a chance of ambush. And you can depend the local population for intelligence -- for you are the source of their free food.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well actually, there is increasing evidence to suggest that pirate ransom money is being used to fund Al-Q linked groups. And IEDs are already being used by Somali rebels fighting the African Union troops in Somalia.
In addition, I do not think you fully appreciate just how big and tough an undertaking what you are suggesting would be.
Maybe this will give you more prospective.
Yet that does not seem to be the case with organized crime...anywhere. If you kill or capture one kingpin, another two will rise up in his place.
You are right in that the pirates are doing what they do because it is profitable. Killing or capturing pirates can have a deterrent effect on some people, but in a country so poor and war ridden, death is not as big a deterrent as you might think, and there will always be far more desperate people willing to risk life and limb than you can kill when the potential rewards are so massive.
After all, it's not like anyone has gone out of their way to avoid pirate deaths in cases where force was used. It is already a deadly dangerous business for pirates, and they are still willing to do it.
Expect if anyone sets up a military base in Somalia with the goal of eradicating piracy, it will in no way shape or form look benign.
Do NATO bases in Afghanistan look benign and make you more or less inclined to want a similar base on your front doorstep?
If you want a benign foreign base, you set up somewhere where the locals have invited you in with open arms. You promote the image that it is benign with pictures of smiling soldiers interacting with laughing locals.
You are never going to get that, or if you do, it will look fake and staged (because they will be) if you set up a combat military base where the locals actively hate and resist you because you are there to destroy their most profitable industry.
Any photos from such a base will only show edgy troopers in full body armor observing the locals with suspicion down the barrel of their guns, and resentful locals parading their dead.
There is no way for any spin doctor to make that sort of thing look anything but bad, why else do you think the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are so unpopular everywhere?
That is no reason to do something. I am capable of surviving even if I loose a few pints of blood. That does not make it a good idea for me to stab myself in the arm and bleed all over the place.
How are you going to be fighting these pirates if you don't bomb or shell them? Just look at Afghanistan, the NATO forces are only gaining the upper hand because they started to rely more and more on drone attacks to decimate the enemy command structure. Any successful military operation in Somalia will likely require similar tactics.
The biggest qualitative advantage the PLA or any other military force would enjoy against the pirates and militia of local warlords in Somalia would be their firepower, which would be exemplified by air power and heavy artillery. Take those away and you just have a bunch of guys shooting small arms at each other. Even allowing for the superior training and small arms that PLA forces will enjoy, you are still going to be taking far more casualties than if you just called in an air strike or artillery strike instead to charging in guns blazing.
---------- Post added 03-31-2012 at 12:04 AM ---------- Previous post was 03-30-2012 at 11:55 PM ----------
Do you have any idea how much of the Somali population depends on the sea for their survival?
Even with their fishing fleets, Somali has millions of people depending on UN food aid. Take food from the sea away and you will be in effect feeding the entire population.
In the best possible scenario, you will be spending billions every year just to feed the people you prevent from feeding, and in more realistic scenarios, you will kill hundreds or thousands of innocent fishermen with direct attacks, and tens or hundreds of thousands more with the subsequent famine.
And the worse part, as soon as you stop, everything does right back to the way they are today if not worse.
That is not what I would call a viable strategy.