Chinese Economics Thread

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ansy1968

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Registered Member
bajingan said:
Yes i agree with you, growing up in indonesia myself as Chinese i have seen and experienced first hand the racism and discrimination against Chinese indonesians, however indonesia also known for their commitment in non alignment movement, they have even refused american request to refuel their spy plane in indonesia when malaysia, singapore and vietnam allowed them to
I think at the very least China need to support indonesia commitment to neutrality
Click to expand...
Hi bajingan,

Hello fellow Huaqiao, Well we can relate ;) (regarding the discrimination part) I think now they're hedging cause China is on the ascendance, but remember they never fear us cause we never colonized them. We were use by the foreign colonizer as a threat to justify their rule an idea that is still present today. From my country history, the Spaniard relegated the Chinese as the lowest of low and place them in a ghetto within a cannon shot away from its Fort just in case:eek:. That's how the first Chinatown is establish. An inferiority complex that Western colonizer instill on us, That trait is now being follow by the locals. I hope that time healed old wounds, but in time of crisis, we the Huaqiao will always be a target, an easy target cause we don't fight back and China will not interfere.
 
Gatekeeper

Gatekeeper

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While U.S. gets big down with election, and Trump's refusal to conceed. Fighting the highest rate of covid 19 infection and death rates. China quietly goes about its business.


China's exports jump 11.4% in October, imports grow moderately

Updated 2020.11.07 14:26

China's exports continued to expand in October, the growth rate reached 19 months high, and imports also showed stable growth, official data showed on Saturday, as the country's economy continues to recover from the pandemic.

China's October exports and imports increased 11.4 and 4.7 percent, respectively, from a year earlier, reaching $237 billion and $179 billion.

Exports in October continued to expand from an already solid increase of 9.9 percent in September, beating analysts' expectations of 9.3 percent. Imports however slowed down from September's big leap of 13.2 percent, and stabilized to 4.7 percent, still marking the second straight month of growth.

After bottomed in February this year when the pandemic just broke out and China imposed travel restrictions to control the breakout, China's exports quickly rebounded and have maintained resilient since, from the strong demand for medical supplies from the rest of the world.

The surge in exports pushed the trade surplus to $58.44 billion, increased 34.9 percent compared to the same time last year. The surplus stood at $37 billion last month.

"Exports growth quickened further and significantly exceeded expectations, indicating a relatively strong momentum," said Liu Xuezhi, an analyst at Bank of Communications in Shanghai.

China's exports could stay strong in the rest of 2020 as domestic firms resume production faster than global rivals and sell more COVID-19 related goods such as face masks, Liu said.

However, some analysts cautioned that China's robust trade performance could come under pressure in November, as the second wave of coronavirus is sweeping through the rest of the world, and many major economies in Europe went back to lockdown.

In the first 10 months of 2020, China exported more industrial and electrical products and textile products. The exports of clothing, shoes, bags, oil, and steel saw different degrees of reduction.

ASEAN became China's largest trading partner in the first 10 months of 2020, followed by the EU, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

China's trade surplus with the U.S. widened to $31.37 billion in October from $30.75 billion last month.

(With inputs from Reuters)
 
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Deleted member 15887

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Xi Jinping says China's economy can double by 2035. Here's my reasoning behind why China, in my opinion, can achieve this extremely modest forecast.
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According to last month's
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, China will likely be able to achieve at least around an average of 6% economic growth between 2021 and 2025. This because growth rates between 2021 and 2025 are as forecast:

Year20212022202320242025
GDP Growth Rate (%)8.2375.7985.7335.6465.494
GDP (current prices, billions RMB)¥112,870.53¥121,939.16¥131,747.28¥142,322.11¥153,496.91

So the period between 2021-25, China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 34.46%, which on average is an average annual rate of 6.1% per year within these 5 years. That's more than the necessary growth rate needed for China to ascend to high-income status by 2025 (2025 GDP per capita (PPP) of ~$30,000/year)
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Now, here's where my own forecast comes in. Since IMF economic forecasts end at 2025, I'll leave off where they started, based on a trend of slowly-tapering off economic growth for China (let's be more pessimistic than the IMF-forecast growth trend and say there will be a 0.15% decrease in percent growth rate in each succeeding year between 2026-2030). That pans out like this for the 2026-2030 period:

Year20262022202820292030
GDP Growth Rate (%)5.355.25.054.94.75
GDP (2025 prices, billions RMB)¥161,708.99¥170,117.86¥178,708.81¥187,465.55¥196,370.16

So during the period between 2026-30, a reasonable forecast is that China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 27.93%, which on average is an annual rate of 5.0% per year within these 5 years.

Between 2021-30, hence, China's total inflation-adjusted growth rate will be 72.02%, meaning China's economy by 2030 will be 72.02% bigger than what it was in 2020 (this year), or an average of 5.57% annual growth between 2021 and 2030. Let's continue on.
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For the 2031-35 time period, let's forecast that a trend of slowly-tapering off economic growth for China continues (continuing with the pessimistic trend that there will be a 0.15% decrease in percent growth rate in each succeeding year between 2031-2035). That pans out like this:

Year20312032203320342035
GDP Growth Rate (%)4.64.454.34.154.00
GDP (2025 prices, billions RMB)¥205,403.19¥214,543.63¥223,769.00¥233,055.42¥242,377.64

So during the period between 2031-35, a reasonable forecast is that China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 23.43%, which on average is an annual rate of 4.3% per year within these 5 years.

Between 2021-35, hence, China's total inflation-adjusted growth rate will be 112.32%, meaning China's economy by 2030 will be 112.32% bigger than what it was in 2020 (this year), or an average annual growth rate of 5.15% between 2021 and 2035; this means China's economy can easily more than double in size by 2035. In fact, the doubling of the economy likely can be achieved even earlier by 2033-34. While this forecast is rather pessimistic, I think Xi's own 2035 prediction is the most pessimistic sort of "worst-case bottom-line scenario" for China's economy, especially if Trump were have been able to go ahead with full decoupling and Cold War 2.0, which is now highly unlikely with a Biden presidency.

Overall, my conclusion is yes: it is extremely likely, almost certain, that China's economy can double by 2035.
 
Gatekeeper

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cbl21 said:
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Xi Jinping says China's economy can double by 2035. Here's my reasoning behind why China, in my opinion, can achieve this extremely modest forecast.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to last month's
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, China will likely be able to achieve at least around an average of 6% economic growth between 2021 and 2025. This because growth rates between 2021 and 2025 are as forecast:

Year20212022202320242025
GDP Growth Rate (%)8.2375.7985.7335.6465.494
GDP (current prices, billions RMB)¥112,870.53¥121,939.16¥131,747.28¥142,322.11¥153,496.91

So the period between 2021-25, China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 34.46%, which on average is an average annual rate of 6.1% per year within these 5 years. That's more than the necessary growth rate needed for China to ascend to high-income status by 2025 (2025 GDP per capita (PPP) of ~$30,000/year)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Now, here's where my own forecast comes in. Since IMF economic forecasts end at 2025, I'll leave off where they started, based on a trend of slowly-tapering off economic growth for China (let's be more pessimistic than the IMF-forecast growth trend and say there will be a 0.15% decrease in percent growth rate in each succeeding year between 2026-2030). That pans out like this for the 2026-2030 period:

Year20262022202820292030
GDP Growth Rate (%)5.355.25.054.94.75
GDP (2025 prices, billions RMB)¥161,708.99¥170,117.86¥178,708.81¥187,465.55¥196,370.16

So during the period between 2026-30, a reasonable forecast is that China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 27.93%, which on average is an annual rate of 5.0% per year within these 5 years.

Between 2021-30, hence, China's total inflation-adjusted growth rate will be 72.02%, meaning China's economy by 2030 will be 72.02% bigger than what it was in 2020 (this year), or an average of 5.57% annual growth between 2021 and 2030. Let's continue on.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the 2031-35 time period, let's forecast that a trend of slowly-tapering off economic growth for China continues (continuing with the pessimistic trend that there will be a 0.15% decrease in percent growth rate in each succeeding year between 2031-2035). That pans out like this:

Year20312032203320342035
GDP Growth Rate (%)4.64.454.34.154.00
GDP (2025 prices, billions RMB)¥205,403.19¥214,543.63¥223,769.00¥233,055.42¥242,377.64

So during the period between 2031-35, a reasonable forecast is that China can achieve a total inflation-adjusted growth rate of 23.43%, which on average is an annual rate of 4.3% per year within these 5 years.

Between 2021-35, hence, China's total inflation-adjusted growth rate will be 112.32%, meaning China's economy by 2030 will be 112.32% bigger than what it was in 2020 (this year), or an average annual growth rate of 5.15% between 2021 and 2035; this means China's economy can easily more than double in size by 2035. In fact, the doubling of the economy likely can be achieved even earlier by 2033-34. While this forecast is rather pessimistic, I think Xi's own 2035 prediction is the most pessimistic sort of "worst-case bottom-line scenario" for China's economy, especially if Trump were have been able to go ahead with full decoupling and Cold War 2.0, which is now highly unlikely with a Biden presidency.

Overall, my conclusion is yes: it is extremely likely, almost certain, that China's economy can double by 2035.
Click to expand...

You're way too complicated. And future going into 15 years is uncertain.

In order to double is 70/4 = 15.56

That means growing at 4% per year average should lead to doubling of the economy in 15.56 years.
 
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