Chinese Economics Thread

tphuang

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Do a point-to-point rebuttal if you have so many clues.

Speak for yourself.
In fact I can speak on this quite clearly because my cousin slaves away in Shenzhen among a whole bunch of exporters there trying to get their product int he overseas market.

Last year, I was involved in a project to try getting US design but made in China AI robot toy so Had significant interaction with the Chinese electronics supply chain as well as American toy designers who are in the business of getting their stuff made in China and sold in America.

The entire Chinese supply chain is moving up the value chain because it has been relentless in taking over the global electronics market and leaving nothing for anyone else. The Western product designers are relying more and more than ever on both Chinese factories and Chinese engineers to get the work done. Before long, Western product designers will be so far away from the supply chain and production process that even its competitive advantage in warehousing, logistics, sales and market knowledge will be overtaken by the share production knowledge of Chinese companies.

I was in Beijing for 3 weeks for vacation and yet spoke with multiple companies looking to sell their AI robot products in America. Everyone understands that market access is critical.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
In fact I can speak on this quite clearly because my cousin slaves away in Shenzhen among a whole bunch of exporters there trying to get their product int he overseas market.

Last year, I was involved in a project to try getting US design but made in China AI robot toy so Had significant interaction with the Chinese electronics supply chain as well as American toy designers who are in the business of getting their stuff made in China and sold in America.

The entire Chinese supply chain is moving up the value chain because it has been relentless in taking over the global electronics market and leaving nothing for anyone else. The Western product designers are relying more and more than ever on both Chinese factories and Chinese engineers to get the work done. Before long, Western product designers will be so far away from the supply chain and production process that even its competitive advantage in warehousing, logistics, sales and market knowledge will be overtaken by the share production knowledge of Chinese companies.

I was in Beijing for 3 weeks for vacation and yet spoke with multiple companies looking to sell their AI robot products in America. Everyone understands that market access is critical.
Yeah That's exactly what I'm talking about. That's what we should be doing, taking over everything they used to be good at, pushing them out, making their products obsolete both in technology and in price. If we do this everywhere, their economies become dinosaurs and their currencies become relics. Western finance control crumbles. This is exactly what I'm saying we should be doing, so what are you talking about when you tell me I'm ingorant and should have a different attitude on trade?

Because they're trying to export? This is a transitional phase between when China made cheap things and when we make the most high tech critical things. At this point, market access to set global standards and demonstrate Chinese capabilities is needed and at this point, trade is flourishing to non-US markets. But my long term goal, which is selective trade to empower our partners and deprive our enemies, is philosophically in line with taking over and dominating fields. That comes after we establish dominance in this critical phase we are engaged in and that's fine because for now, as I understand, the things that we import aren't completely useless to us yet either. But when we are in the next phase, where China is dominant and the West has nothing left to trade us except expensive consumer goods marked with "Made in US/EU" tags, it's time to treat our trade as a reward and privilege for good behavior as we don't need them for anything but they need us for everything.
 

AndrewS

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Selling industrial products and technology and buying raw materials and luxury items is actually a great deal. It means you accumulate hard power, while the rest of the world is de-industrialized, eventually making you the hegemon by default.

Chinese industrial companies typically operate with profit margins of 5-7%? If they're in hi-tech, then they might reach 100%.

But luxury goods companies go up to 1000% for example. Basically that means it's mostly profit margin. That is basically giving the money away.

Plus it perpetuates reverence of European luxury brands and notions of White/Western superiority.

Instead, I would offer up tourism as an alternative. China's tourist infrastructure is ridiculously overcrowded when there are holidays. In comparison, other countries have different holiday schedules and generally aren't as crowded.

The profit margins and wages in the tourism industry are generally quite low, so in general, it's a better "deal" to exchange manufactures for tourism.

This will also help spread usage of the RMB and Chinese apps, soft power etc.
 

SanWenYu

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Chinese industrial companies typically operate with profit margins of 5-7%? If they're in hi-tech, then they might reach 100%.

But luxury goods companies go up to 1000% for example. Basically that means it's mostly profit margin. That is basically giving the money away.

Plus it perpetuates reverence of European luxury brands and notions of White/Western superiority.

Instead, I would offer up tourism as an alternative. China's tourist infrastructure is ridiculously overcrowded when there are holidays. In comparison, other countries have different holiday schedules and generally aren't as crowded.

The profit margins and wages in the tourism industry are generally quite low, so in general, it's a better "deal" to exchange manufactures for tourism.

This will also help spread usage of the RMB and Chinese apps, soft power etc.
Regarding the luxury goods import, for the certain groups of people, you cannot wish away their desire for the prestige associated with some brands. The demands for luxury goods like Gucci bags exist whether you, and others including myself, like it or not.

But If you try to suppress the demands with trade barriers or even bans, you will create opportunities for smuggling. Will it be worth it? Depends. Right now, I think China wants to keep the jobs for the manufacturing of the luxury goods, and to use the import of luxury goods to balance the trades to some degree.
 

tphuang

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Yeah That's exactly what I'm talking about. That's what we should be doing, taking over everything they used to be good at, pushing them out, making their products obsolete both in technology and in price. If we do this everywhere, their economies become dinosaurs and their currencies become relics. Western finance control crumbles. This is exactly what I'm saying we should be doing, so what are you talking about when you tell me I'm ingorant and should have a different attitude on trade?

Because they're trying to export? This is a transitional phase between when China made cheap things and when we make the most high tech critical things. At this point, market access to set global standards and demonstrate Chinese capabilities is needed and at this point, trade is flourishing to non-US markets. But my long term goal, which is selective trade to empower our partners and deprive our enemies, is philosophically in line with taking over and dominating fields. That comes after we establish dominance in this critical phase we are engaged in and that's fine because for now, as I understand, the things that we import aren't completely useless to us yet either. But when we are in the next phase, where China is dominant and the West has nothing left to trade us except expensive consumer goods marked with "Made in US/EU" tags, it's time to treat our trade as a reward and privilege for good behavior as we don't need them for anything but they need us for everything.
it's because fundamentally, nobody is going to allow you to have market access if you don't buy anything from them. If you look at everything from a self centered point of view, then you are going to not succeed in what you want to do.

If your goal is to deprive "your enemies", then you will have no market. And Chinese producers need overseas market to not only make money but also to improve their own product. In order to have market access elsewhere, you need to pay attention to other countries complaints in terms of their market access and currency weakness and such.

That's all I got to say.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Regarding the luxury goods import, for the certain groups of people, you cannot wish away their desire for the prestige associated with some brands. The demands for luxury goods like Gucci bags exist whether you, and others including myself, like it or not.

But If you try to suppress the demands with trade barriers or even bans, you will create opportunities for smuggling. Will it be worth it? Depends. Right now, I think China wants to keep the jobs for the manufacturing of the luxury goods, and to use the import of luxury goods to balance the trades to some degree.
Of course, China needs to and has been developing our own luxury brands. It's just fighting against a matter of long engrained recognition and white worship from a dead era of Western domination that makes Chinese people think that Western cars/bags/coats are better or better represent status. Peng Liyuan is taking a lead in representing Chinese fashion and I think that's the direction for the future. There is absolutely no reason to send absurd amounts of money to France or Italy (other nations as well) for fashion or cars that China can make better. There's absolutely no reason to give these nations any recognition.
it's because fundamentally, nobody is going to allow you to have market access if you don't buy anything from them. If you look at everything from a self centered point of view, then you are going to not succeed in what you want to do.

If your goal is to deprive "your enemies", then you will have no market. And Chinese producers need overseas market to not only make money but also to improve their own product. In order to have market access elsewhere, you need to pay attention to other countries complaints in terms of their market access and currency weakness and such.

That's all I got to say.
In the short term, as China is transitioning into dominance, you are correct in that the global spread to the wealthy economies of Chinese high tech products aids in that transition. However, at some point, China needs to leave behind the idea that we want them to use our products; rather, it is the West that wants and needs to use Chinese products. When they are unwilling to export any tech we want but only want to push redundant tech on us that compete in China with what we already have, we need to realize that they are offering nothing, nothing good, and we are giving them the best. We are giving them things they cannot make at a price that elevates their lifestyles beyond what they can make and beyond what they deserve.

We are fast approaching a future where if we continue trade with the West, we are essentially trading them all the things they need for their lifestyles but cannot make or cannot efficienty make at the best prices in the world and all we are getting back is either things that can be sourced from anywhere in the world (sometimes including in China) or things with inflated value due to luxury branding. When we reach that point, and hopefully, by that time we will be completely dominant in all tech manufacturing, we need to make the decision of whether we want to keep up that type of trade, which exalts their status, preserves the power of their currency and finance control and upholds their first world quality of life, or if we want to pull out the rug from under them and transition ourselves to more internal consumption, less overwork for excess production, and trade with our partners in the global south. It will be a ground-shattering transition for us, but all the components for success are going to be there. For them, it will literally shatter the ground underneath their ivory towers and create a world where the West no longer represents modern high quality lifestyles of plenty but of technological and lifestyle modesty compared to the plenty seen in countries that trade as economic and political partners of China. For me, this is the ultimate long term goal, although making this move prematurely would be the worst mistake for China.
 

AndrewS

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Registered Member
Regarding the luxury goods import, for the certain groups of people, you cannot wish away their desire for the prestige associated with some brands. The demands for luxury goods like Gucci bags exist whether you, and others including myself, like it or not.

But If you try to suppress the demands with trade barriers or even bans, you will create opportunities for smuggling. Will it be worth it? Depends. Right now, I think China wants to keep the jobs for the manufacturing of the luxury goods, and to use the import of luxury goods to balance the trades to some degree.

Hence my comment that if consumers are going to waste their money on luxury goods, it's better to spend on a domestic brand.
But this will take time to develop, and is not urgent compared to developing hard technologies.

Remember that brands can become toxic or socially unacceptable.
 
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