Chinese Economics Thread

AndrewS

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Does getting wealthy for an average Chinese person not matter?

Yes

Holding a currency with higher value makes them richer, able to afford more, have a bigger economy, economic power translates to military power.

No. Remember that the attitude is that China can make anything and everything domestically, at a better cost and with better quality.
So both earnings and spending will be in RMB.
Having a stronger currency doesn't really matter too much, but it will reduce Chinese factory output somewhat.

If vast majority of consumption and production is in local currency than appreciation shouldn't matter much.

Yes, some appreciation or depreciation shouldn't matter too much. But China is in the middle of a trade war with the US, so better to be conservative on the exchange rate
 

tphuang

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lol, CNY can easily appreciate 10% without any negative affect on exports, but it would increase buying power of Chinese people and increase imports. That's all a good thing.


$1.2T surplus long term is not a good thing. People in China recognizes that. That's why we are seeing some level of appreciation now.
 

Eventine

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RMB has already appreciated from a low of ~7.35 to the dollar to ~6.97, in the last 10 months. That's an appreciation of ~5%.

Currency isn't the only instrument of policy. For example, if you want to maintain domestic manufacturing's share of consumption and not raise manufacturing imports, you can use tariffs or subsidies to offset the effects of currency appreciation. The same is true of exports - if you want to make Chinese products more competitive overseas without depreciating the currency, you can use export subsidies. Ultimately, a system where by China buys commodities (ie raw materials, which by definition can't be made in China) at higher purchasing power (via currency appreciation), but exports finished products just as cheaply (via subsidies), is not really worse than the current system.

The thing to be cautious about, though, is capital flow. Ironically, an appreciating currency facilitates emigration and capital flight because it makes it easier for Chinese entities (house holds, companies, etc.) holding RMB (or assets in RMB) to invest overseas. This is exactly what happened during the Plaza Accords, when Japanese companies and house holds went on a buying spree around the world with their superior currency and assets bubble.

Against import tariffs, Chinese house holds and companies would be incentivized to take their buying power out of China. This will, of course, be balanced by higher amounts of foreign investment looking to leverage an appreciating currency, but the trouble with that, of course, is that foreigners will then control a higher % of your economy and may end up creating an investment bubble that'll subsequently pop and lead to a "lost decades" type of situation. You can try to arrest this by imposing tighter capital controls, but in my experience, Chinese people are very proficient at evading any type of capital control.

The Plaza Accords without question contributed to the lost decades in Japan. But Japan had less tools at its disposal - the US wasn't going to let Japan impose tariffs or heavily subsidize its exports, when the whole purpose of the Plaza Accords was to reduce the competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing relative to US manufacturing. China is better positioned here to have its cake & eat it too - ie up lift its purchasing power on commodities, while retaining price competitiveness on exports, since it doesn't need to answer to the US. Yet it must be managed correctly, or else it'll open the door for competitors like Vietnam and India to really super charge their export games.
 
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GiantPanda

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Complaining about the Yuan when it is already steadily appreciating against the USD while China is able to maintain record surplus and trade volumes during the midst of a trade war is pretty senseless.

I think everyone sensible will agree that China should and will allow the Yuan rise at its own pace.
 

madhusudan.tim

New Member
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China can buy crucial resources that it lacks at the present including the soy and corn, crude oil, nickel, copper, and other minerals, even at huge premium and stockpile it even if there is no demand from the people would be a better choice than having a meaningless surplus. It would pull the emerging nations towards it, reduce the trade friction and strengthen it against black swan events.
 

HighGround

Senior Member
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China is not Japan.

Plaza Accords is useful, but that sort of scenario is unlikely to happen because nobody has that kind of leverage over China anyway. And even if it did, China's economy is very, very different from Japan. The effects would be very different.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
That that $1 trillion USD is simply paper and of not much use.
It's used to import raw materials and any tech we still need that's not banned. If it's actually not much use then don't export, right?
That awarding people who hold RMB will lead more people to hold more RMB, hence appreciation of RMB is a must for making it a store of value.

That higher value of RMB will boost consumer demand, which will lead to more products (primarily of domestic origin) being bought.

That having a higher standard of living will lead to lower exodus of talent.
No, a higher value of RMB does not affect consumption of domestic goods except those made with imported materials. The most significant effect of a higher valued RMB is an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. Oftentimes, those imports are from enemy countries by Chinese people who don't understand politics and buy Japanese toilets/beef, European wine/cheese/chocolate and American/Canadian agriculture.
That China's nominal growth right now is at 3.5-4% which is way too low for its stage of development.
What stage of development is that, overtaking the previously lone superpower? Where does it say what your nominal growth should be during the superpower overtake phase?
 

AndrewS

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lol, CNY can easily appreciate 10% without any negative affect on exports, but it would increase buying power of Chinese people and increase imports. That's all a good thing.

The thing is, what does China want to buy from the outside world? Most consumer items are already made in China.

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Plus currency appreciation only addresses the supply side, where Chinese consumers can buy cheaper imported goods.
But if Chinese consumers are still nervous/cautious/downbeat, they'll still only buy what they need, and save the rest.

So it's more important to increase aggregate demand, whether that is from government consumption spending, increasing consumer confidence, etc


$1.2T surplus long term is not a good thing. People in China recognizes that. That's why we are seeing some level of appreciation now.

Yep
 

tphuang

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It's used to import raw materials and any tech we still need that's not banned. If it's actually not much use then don't export, right?

No, a higher value of RMB does not affect consumption of domestic goods except those made with imported materials. The most significant effect of a higher valued RMB is an increase in imports and a decrease in exports. Oftentimes, those imports are from enemy countries by Chinese people who don't understand politics and buy Japanese toilets/beef, European wine/cheese/chocolate and American/Canadian agriculture.

What stage of development is that, overtaking the previously lone superpower? Where does it say what your nominal growth should be during the superpower overtake phase?

Those "enemy countries" aren't going to want to trade with you and will put up more trade barriers if you only sell to them and never buy anything. So if you want to export more, you also need to buy more from those countries.
 
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