Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

supercat

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China ended 2025 with a foreign exchange reserve of $3.3579 trillion, by far the largest in the world - about 2.5 times more than the world's second largest forex reserve holder, Japan. Less than $800 billion of China's forex reserve are US Treasuries. At the end of 2025, China's gold reserve is approx.2,389 tons. China should convert its holding of US Treasuries into gold, as much as possible.
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009088674894430514
 
tphuang

tphuang

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https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009575880830460365

Reminder the contrary to the Armchair QBs online, there is plenty of oil resource globally & more Venezuelan oil on the market will only lower oil prices and benefit the world's largest importer of oil.

But longer term, I think oil demand will continue to drop in China due to energy security reasons.
 
tphuang

tphuang

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Again, Mark Carney is visiting next week. Oil has to be on top of the list.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009682338851021102

Canadian oil is the best replacement for Venezuelan oil.

Aside from that, China imports a lot of Gold and Copper from China. Uranium and Timber would work too. In exchange for dropping EV tariffs, China will drop all the canola related retaliations.
 
PiSigma

PiSigma

"the engineer"
tphuang said:
Again, Mark Carney is visiting next week. Oil has to be on top of the list.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009682338851021102

Canadian oil is the best replacement for Venezuelan oil.

Aside from that, China imports a lot of Gold and Copper from China. Uranium and Timber would work too. In exchange for dropping EV tariffs, China will drop all the canola related retaliations.
Click to expand...
I highly doubt Carney will drop EV tariffs to please the Prairie provinces. The liberals have no seats in Alberta or Saskatchewan and their base is in Ontario where can manufacturers are.

Unless the people in central Canada can be convinced chinese ev won't completed kill their livelihood along with trump, it will be for Carney to convince his base.
 
S

SanWenYu

Major
Registered Member
tphuang said:
Again, Mark Carney is visiting next week. Oil has to be on top of the list.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/2009682338851021102

Canadian oil is the best replacement for Venezuelan oil.

Aside from that, China imports a lot of Gold and Copper from China. Uranium and Timber would work too. In exchange for dropping EV tariffs, China will drop all the canola related retaliations.
Click to expand...
It won't be easy for Carney to drop the EV tariffs. The Ontario premier Ford has repeatedly warned Carney to not do it. This speaks loudly that the tariffs on Chinese EVs have nothing to do the NatSec crap raised by the Trudeau government. It is about protectionism from day one in addition to trying to appease the US.

How much Carney can get from his trip remains to be seen.
 
J

jli88

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I just calculated, in the recent years (from 21 onwards) US has been growing at much faster pace nominally than China, while China has been growing at almost 2x the pace in real terms.

This means that in effect, due to deflation, Chinese currency should increase in value, when on the other hand it has decreased in value overall from 21 to now.

Unless there's a sustained appreciation in Chinese currency, I don't think China is on track to match US GDP in nominal market exchange rate equivalents.

I have no clue why there is so much resistance to letting the Chinese currency rise.
 
manqiangrexue

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
jli88 said:
I just calculated, in the recent years (from 21 onwards) US has been growing at much faster pace nominally than China, while China has been growing at almost 2x the pace in real terms.

This means that in effect, due to deflation, Chinese currency should increase in value, when on the other hand it has decreased in value overall from 21 to now.

Unless there's a sustained appreciation in Chinese currency, I don't think China is on track to match US GDP in nominal market exchange rate equivalents.

I have no clue why there is so much resistance to letting the Chinese currency rise.
Click to expand...
Chinese culture likes to hide strength and keep confidence within while American culture aims to puff itself up like the Wizard of Oz. They help each other in that sense.
 
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