Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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For reference : Russia fertility rate, during glasnost, the decreasing level of living dramatically decreased the fertility rate.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Here is a better reference for you:
It's much closer to the China graph than the wild swings seen in the Russian chart that you provided. As you see, in US history, we have seen many periods of slightly declining birth rate despite fast GDP growth and increase in standard of living.
Equation
Lieutenant General
Never had a question for you in the first place. I only ask to people who are competent for answers.
Here is data on China's unemployment rate:
In 2012, unemployment was 4.09%; in 2018, it was 4%. In 2012, China's fertility rate was just over 12% and in 2018, it declined to 11%. The most dramatic drop was between 2016 and 2017, then the unemployment dropped from 4.02% to 3.9% but fertility rate also dropped half a percentage. Both these trends are contradictory to the study that you posted but no doubt failed to understand. Your article has nothing to do with China.
In China's case, the drop in fertility rate with obvious increase in economic prosperity is easily traced to the newly prevailing attitudes that 1. childbearing can be postponed to enjoy life more while the couple is young 2. it is more important to focus on your career when you are young and worry about family after later.
I'm not a fan of either concept but it is impossible to interpret China's slight drop in childbirth as a decline in the Chinese economy, especially because we have actual economic figures to use to interpret China's economy with.
good, then a person competent ( and who doesn't make magnitude errors in simple natgas to oil calculation ) can calculate the chance to see it as a random fluctuation OR issue with the underlying numbers.( birth rate, unemployment rate or both).
Read this :
Equation
Lieutenant General
There's no indication that such a person with the capability exists and there's no way to verify the accuracy of such a "chance" (say 57%) even when the outcome is apparent so I would say that that effort would be completely meaningless.
Wikipedia again... Really pointless talking to you since this is your default when you don't know what to say. Nobody will waste time arguing with a concept on wikipedia.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
The US and other China bashers should do their citizens a favor: stop inventing “fake news” to demonize or belittle the Asian giant. China is not going anywhere unless there is a nuclear war that would also destroy the US and its allies.
Proclaiming 3.0% growth in the US is a “miracle” while saying China’s 6.6% constitutes collapse is twisted logic.
Contrary to what the critics say, China will be just fine
By JANUARY 30, 2019 7:18 AM (UTC+8)
After their “coming collapse” theory failed to materialize for over 30 years, China critics seem to think they are vindicated by the latest GDP numbers. Having registered only 6.6% growth in 2018, the lowest rate in 28 years, critics are quick to say, “I told you so.”
They opine that China’s economy will be heading to a hard landing because of “hidden huge debts,” which they estimated at over 300% of GDP. The critics also claim the ongoing US-China trade war has closed many factories. The “proof” is the gradual decline of China’s quarterly GDP growth rates in 2018: 6.8%, 6.7%, 6.5% and 6.4% in the first, second, third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Are the critics right?
Whether the China critics are right or not, one should examine the claims and economic realities on the ground.
As alluded to earlier, the Western media and pundits have been repeating the “drown in a sea of debt” message for over 30 years. The US-based lawyer Gordon Chang wrote in his 2001 book The Coming Collapse of China that its economy would collapse in 2011 for the same reason. The world knows what happened to their theory.
Peterson Institute for International Economics analyst Nicholas Lardy wrote in the January 16 edition of the Financial Times that Chinese President XI Jinping’s decision to roll back reforms culminated in a total debt-GDP ratio of over 300% in 2018. He claimed that over 20% of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) went out business, requiring substantial bailouts by state-owned banks (SOBs).
The Chinese economy has not only defied its critics but, in fact, performs better than the US and its G7 allies. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US, EU, and Japan GDP growth rates were 3.0%, 2.1% and 1%, respectively in 2018. The IMF further estimates that the G7 nations’ growth rates will be slower in 2019, at 2.3%, 1.9% and 0.5%, respectively, for the US, EU and Japan. Whereas China’s growth rate is expected to be between 6.2% and 6.4% in the same year.
Other data on the Chinese economy discredit the “coming collapse” theory.
Chinese key economic indicators
In 2018, Chinese total debt to GDP was 266%, according to the US-based financial media service Bloomberg whereas those of the US, EU and Japan were, respectively, over 310% and 307.0%. When taking external debt to GDP into consideration, China’s 15% versus the average G7 country’s 156%, its financial posture is in even better shape, according to Wikipedia. China’s debt is largely internal.
According to the China National Bureau of Statistics (CNBS), SOE debt totaled US$17 trillion (125% of GDP) in 2018. The total corporate debt-GDP ratio is approximately 156%, and since SOEs borrow from SOBs, the lending-borrowing arrangement is a “family affair.” It is more of an accounting issue than a debt burden one.
CNBS also indicates that SOEs posted almost US$500 billion in profits in 2018, a year-on-year rise of 12.9%. This picture hardly points to a “financial bubble.” What’s more, in order for the financial system to collapse, all SOEs must default on payments, a highly unlikely scenario.
It should also be pointed out that China’s total bank assets are over $37 trillion, the largest in the world according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). With over $26 trillion in bank deposits and over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China could withstand any financial or economic problems.
Without exception, China’s economic performance outshines that of the US and its G7 allies. According to the CNBS, Chinese wages, consumption and employment rose by 6.5%, 6.2% and 13.6 million new jobs, respectively, in 2018. Nominal wages in the US increased by 2.7% but inflation was 2.9% in 2018, according to the US Department of Labor. The EU and Japanese figures are equally bleak.
The low wage increases coupled with high consumer debt to income explain why private consumption increased only marginally in the G7, estimated at less than 1% by the IMF. Since private consumption accounts for over 70% of GDP in the G7, the club would likely find it extremely difficult to climb out of the hole that the US-engineered 2008 financial crisis had dug.
China’s economy is not collapsing anytime soon
Unless the Chinese economic statistics are “fake” or the critics know something the rest of us don’t, there is no reason to believe that China’s economy will collapse anytime soon. Indeed, one could argue it will likely remain the “beacon” of the world economy, continuing to contribute over 30% of global economic growth as the biggest trade partner of 130 countries.
Contrary to charges of “predatory economic” practices or setting up “debt traps” for developing economies, increasing numbers of countries in both the developed and developing worlds are participating in China’s highly successful Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the China General Customs Commission, over 80 countries have joined the BRI with a total investment of over $180 billion and$ 5 trillion in two-way trade since its inception in 2013.
China’s huge domestic market of 1.4 billion people, of whom over 400 million are middle class (defined as anyone earning between US$12,000 and $72,000 a year), offers foreign investors tremendous opportunities. This probably explains why most nations, including staunch US allies such as Japan and the EU, are seeking rapprochement with “commie China.”
Contrary to US media claims, only a handful of countries are joining (pressuring more likely) it in banning Huawei from their telecommunications architectures. These countries – Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Canada, Germany, and Japan – will find it difficult to find alternative suppliers because the Chinese telecom company produces or has patented the 5G parts. What’s more, switching fro Huawei to other sources would delay 5G implementation and cost these companies billions of US dollars.
Since there is no evidence to prove that Huawei is guilty of the US spying charges, the US is dragging its allies down the road of disaster.
A comment
The US and other China bashers should do their citizens a favor: stop inventing “fake news” to demonize or belittle the Asian giant. China is not going anywhere unless there is a nuclear war that would also destroy the US and its allies.
Proclaiming 3.0% growth in the US is a “miracle” while saying China’s 6.6% constitutes collapse is twisted logic.
Proclaiming 3.0% growth in the US is a “miracle” while saying China’s 6.6% constitutes collapse is twisted logic.
Contrary to what the critics say, China will be just fine
By JANUARY 30, 2019 7:18 AM (UTC+8)
After their “coming collapse” theory failed to materialize for over 30 years, China critics seem to think they are vindicated by the latest GDP numbers. Having registered only 6.6% growth in 2018, the lowest rate in 28 years, critics are quick to say, “I told you so.”
They opine that China’s economy will be heading to a hard landing because of “hidden huge debts,” which they estimated at over 300% of GDP. The critics also claim the ongoing US-China trade war has closed many factories. The “proof” is the gradual decline of China’s quarterly GDP growth rates in 2018: 6.8%, 6.7%, 6.5% and 6.4% in the first, second, third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Are the critics right?
Whether the China critics are right or not, one should examine the claims and economic realities on the ground.
As alluded to earlier, the Western media and pundits have been repeating the “drown in a sea of debt” message for over 30 years. The US-based lawyer Gordon Chang wrote in his 2001 book The Coming Collapse of China that its economy would collapse in 2011 for the same reason. The world knows what happened to their theory.
Peterson Institute for International Economics analyst Nicholas Lardy wrote in the January 16 edition of the Financial Times that Chinese President XI Jinping’s decision to roll back reforms culminated in a total debt-GDP ratio of over 300% in 2018. He claimed that over 20% of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) went out business, requiring substantial bailouts by state-owned banks (SOBs).
The Chinese economy has not only defied its critics but, in fact, performs better than the US and its G7 allies. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the US, EU, and Japan GDP growth rates were 3.0%, 2.1% and 1%, respectively in 2018. The IMF further estimates that the G7 nations’ growth rates will be slower in 2019, at 2.3%, 1.9% and 0.5%, respectively, for the US, EU and Japan. Whereas China’s growth rate is expected to be between 6.2% and 6.4% in the same year.
Other data on the Chinese economy discredit the “coming collapse” theory.
Chinese key economic indicators
In 2018, Chinese total debt to GDP was 266%, according to the US-based financial media service Bloomberg whereas those of the US, EU and Japan were, respectively, over 310% and 307.0%. When taking external debt to GDP into consideration, China’s 15% versus the average G7 country’s 156%, its financial posture is in even better shape, according to Wikipedia. China’s debt is largely internal.
According to the China National Bureau of Statistics (CNBS), SOE debt totaled US$17 trillion (125% of GDP) in 2018. The total corporate debt-GDP ratio is approximately 156%, and since SOEs borrow from SOBs, the lending-borrowing arrangement is a “family affair.” It is more of an accounting issue than a debt burden one.
CNBS also indicates that SOEs posted almost US$500 billion in profits in 2018, a year-on-year rise of 12.9%. This picture hardly points to a “financial bubble.” What’s more, in order for the financial system to collapse, all SOEs must default on payments, a highly unlikely scenario.
It should also be pointed out that China’s total bank assets are over $37 trillion, the largest in the world according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). With over $26 trillion in bank deposits and over $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, China could withstand any financial or economic problems.
Without exception, China’s economic performance outshines that of the US and its G7 allies. According to the CNBS, Chinese wages, consumption and employment rose by 6.5%, 6.2% and 13.6 million new jobs, respectively, in 2018. Nominal wages in the US increased by 2.7% but inflation was 2.9% in 2018, according to the US Department of Labor. The EU and Japanese figures are equally bleak.
The low wage increases coupled with high consumer debt to income explain why private consumption increased only marginally in the G7, estimated at less than 1% by the IMF. Since private consumption accounts for over 70% of GDP in the G7, the club would likely find it extremely difficult to climb out of the hole that the US-engineered 2008 financial crisis had dug.
China’s economy is not collapsing anytime soon
Unless the Chinese economic statistics are “fake” or the critics know something the rest of us don’t, there is no reason to believe that China’s economy will collapse anytime soon. Indeed, one could argue it will likely remain the “beacon” of the world economy, continuing to contribute over 30% of global economic growth as the biggest trade partner of 130 countries.
Contrary to charges of “predatory economic” practices or setting up “debt traps” for developing economies, increasing numbers of countries in both the developed and developing worlds are participating in China’s highly successful Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). According to the China General Customs Commission, over 80 countries have joined the BRI with a total investment of over $180 billion and$ 5 trillion in two-way trade since its inception in 2013.
China’s huge domestic market of 1.4 billion people, of whom over 400 million are middle class (defined as anyone earning between US$12,000 and $72,000 a year), offers foreign investors tremendous opportunities. This probably explains why most nations, including staunch US allies such as Japan and the EU, are seeking rapprochement with “commie China.”
Contrary to US media claims, only a handful of countries are joining (pressuring more likely) it in banning Huawei from their telecommunications architectures. These countries – Australia, New Zealand, Britain, Canada, Germany, and Japan – will find it difficult to find alternative suppliers because the Chinese telecom company produces or has patented the 5G parts. What’s more, switching fro Huawei to other sources would delay 5G implementation and cost these companies billions of US dollars.
Since there is no evidence to prove that Huawei is guilty of the US spying charges, the US is dragging its allies down the road of disaster.
A comment
The US and other China bashers should do their citizens a favor: stop inventing “fake news” to demonize or belittle the Asian giant. China is not going anywhere unless there is a nuclear war that would also destroy the US and its allies.
Proclaiming 3.0% growth in the US is a “miracle” while saying China’s 6.6% constitutes collapse is twisted logic.
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CHANGSHA, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) -- Central China's Hunan Province saw 1.31 million rural residents shake off poverty in 2018, according to the on-going annual session of the provincial People's Congress Saturday.
The province reduced its poverty headcount ratio from 3.86 percent in 2017 to 1.49 percent last year, said Xu Dazhe, governor of Hunan, as he read the government work report at the opening meeting of the annual provincial legislative session.
Xu said 2,491 villages and 18 counties in Hunan removed their "poverty-stricken" labels last year, as the province's rural residents' per capita disposable income increased 11 percent to 10,285 yuan (about 1,524 U.S. dollars).
The governor said Hunan this year aims to lift at least 600,000 people out of poverty, with Xiangxi Tujia and Miao Ethnic Autonomous Prefecture being a major battlefield.
LANZHOU, Jan. 25 (Xinhua) -- Northwest China's Gansu Province helped 31,000 households with about 130,000 people rise out of poverty by developing rural tourism in 2018, the provincial tourism authorities said.
Rural tourism areas received up to 85.2 million visitors last year, and the income of rural tourism hit 16.5 billion yuan (2.43 billion U.S. dollars), up 21.1 percent and 29.4 percent respectively, Chen Weizhong, head of the provincial department of culture and tourism, said on Thursday.
Gansu has been making efforts to promote rural tourism in recent years by introducing preferential policies and improving infrastructure and public services to make rural tourism more convenient, according to the department.
The province has opened 50 rural tourism routes and is developing more rural tourism products and enhancing the level of service and management.
BEIJING, Jan. 24 (Xinhua) -- Trade volume between China and countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) Initiative totaled 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars last year, the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) said Thursday.
This marked a year-on-year growth of 16.3 percent, 3.7 percentage points higher than China's trade growth in 2018.
China exported goods worth 704.73 billion dollars to B&R countries last year, up 10.9 percent year on year, while importing goods from them worth 563.07 billion dollars, rising 23.9 percent year on year.
Chinese firms invested 15.64 billion dollars in non-financial sectors in B&R countries last year, up 8.9 percent year on year, while receiving investment from them totalling 6.08 billion dollars, up 11.9 percent.
China will further open up the market to share more opportunities with B&R countries and promote mutual opening-up among them, said MOC spokesperson Gao Feng.
China will also promote free and facilitation of trade and investment in the region and invite more B&R firms to attend the second China International Import Expo this year, Gao added.
BEIJING, Jan. 24 (Xinhua) -- To better conserve groundwater resources, more professional monitoring wells that can test water quality have been set up across China, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources.
By the end of last year, the number of monitoring wells nationwide had risen to more than 10,100 compared with 5,100 in 2017, and 93 testing indexes for groundwater have been added to monitoring results, China Daily reported Thursday, citing data released by the China Geological Survey (CGS), an institute under the ministry.
Li Wenpeng, senior engineer at the CGS, said that previously they had often used local residents' monitoring tools, but now their own tools are more professional and evenly distributed across the country.
"About 3.5 million square kilometers in 31 provinces, including major plains, basins and cities, are covered with standardized wells. It's like equipping groundwater spots with eyes, which helps us make decisions regarding conservation," he said.
The latest data from the Ministry of Water Resources shows that in 2017, the country's groundwater supply was 101.7 billion cubic meters, 16.8 percent of the total water supply.
However, an environmental report released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in May said that more than 60 percent of the groundwater was graded as poor quality in 2017.
Li said that more indexes can be provided by the monitoring system in time to help with evaluation and protection of groundwater quality.
Specific wells have been arranged for different layers to make the monitoring clear and results more accurate.
Big data and cloud platforms have been also established, so the wells can send the results automatically and immediately to the monitoring center.
Although China's monitoring technology has been modernized and is in the top tier of the world, the number of monitoring facilities is far from enough and engineers still cannot manage to take groundwater samples to test using the current technology, Li said.
China's economy grew 6.6 percent year on year in 2018, beating the official annual target of around 6.5 percent, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Monday. The country's gross domestic product (GDP) hit 90.03 trillion yuan (about 13.32 trillion U.S. dollars) in 2018. The following are a group of facts and figures released by the NBS on its solid economic performance last year. -- China's fixed-asset investment grew 5.9 percent year on year in 2018, 0.5 percentage point faster than that recorded in the first three quarters. -- Total retail sales of consumer goods rose 9 percent year on year to 38.1 trillion yuan in 2018. -- Import and export volume hit a historic high of 30.51 trillion yuan in 2018, up 9.7 percent year-on-year, hitting a record high. -- Industrial output expanded 6.2 percent year on year in 2018, slowing from 6.6-percent growth in 2017. -- The service sector ticked up 7.7 percent year on year in 2018. -- Consumption, which has played a prominent role in driving growth, contributed 76.2 percent of the GDP in 2018. -- Per capita disposable income stood at 28,228 yuan in 2018, up 6.5 percent year on year in real terms. -- Per capita consumer spending increased by 6.2 percent year on year in real terms to reach 19,853 yuan in 2018. The increase was 0.8 percentage points faster than the previous year.
BEIJING, Jan. 24 (Xinhua) -- China's job market continued stable development last year thanks to government efforts to stabilize employment, and steady economic growth.
Some 13.61 million new jobs were created in 2018, up 100,000 from a year ago, said Lu Aihong, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security, at a press briefing Thursday.
Two main jobless indicators stayed within the safe range. The registered unemployment rate, at 3.8 percent, fell to a low level in recent years, while the surveyed rate came in at 4.9 percent, down from 5 percent a year earlier.