Chinese Economics Thread

Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Dec 9, 2017
Jura said:
Sri Lanka formally hands over Hambantota port to China on 99-year lease
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found using google after I had noticed the tweet
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China Merchant Ports Holdings (CMPH) and the Sri Lanka Ports Authority will co-manage the operations of Hambantota Port after Sri Lanka hands over the port to the CMPH 99-year lease.

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guess it's down there:
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4 navires spécifiques, 269 hectares de terre crées sur mer en 6 mois au Sri Lanka, on comprend mieux comment les Chinois ont bâti leurs fortifications en mer de Chine méridionale.

Translated from French by
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4 specific vessels, 269 hectares of land created on sea in 6 months in Sri Lanka, we understand better how the Chinese built their fortifications in the South China Sea.

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Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
now I read
China's power use posts stable growth in 2018
Xinhua| 2019-01-19 19:58:10
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China's power consumption saw stable growth last year, according to the National Energy Administration.

Electricity use increased 8.5 percent year on year to 6.8 trillion kilowatt hours, according to the administration.

Power consumption by the service sector and households maintained double-digit growth in 2018, up 12.7 percent and 10.4 percent, respectively.

Industrial sectors saw an increase of 9.8 percent in power consumption, and power use in agriculture was up 7.2 percent.

The steady power consumption growth came amid stable economic growth. China's GDP rose 6.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2018, putting the economy on track to meet the government's targeted growth of around 6.5 percent set for 2018.
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A

Anlsvrthng

Captain
Registered Member
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What Is GDP in China?
...
In any economic system, GDP is supposed to be a measure of output, and in most countries that is exactly what it measures, however messily. The economy does what it does, in other words, and at the end of a given time period, statisticians measure the things economists agree to include in the relevant calculations, and they express the change over time as the scale of GDP growth for that period.

This is not what happens in China, where GDP is actually an input determined annually as the country’s GDP growth target. The growth target of a given time period is decided well ahead of time, and to achieve it, various entities, including local governments, engage in the requisite amount of activity, usually funded by debt. As long as China has debt capacity, and as long as it can postpone the writing down of nonproductive assets, Beijing can achieve any growth target it desires.

But this arrangement changes the meaning of GDP. Reported GDP in China is no longer a measure of economic growth, but rather a measure of political intention. As any systems theorist knows, input data reveals nothing about the performance of a system.

....
In practical terms, this means that once Beijing sets a GDP growth target, local governments are expected to generate enough economic activity to reach that target, and they are able to borrow as much as they need to do so.
...
But if the economic activity isn’t productive, there are two requirements that allow China to set GDP growth as a systems input in a way other countries are unable to do. First, there must be no hard budget constraints, so as to allow economic entities to persist in value-destroying behavior year after year. Second, the resulting bad debt cannot be written down.

...
A lot of people interpret this to mean that I think Beijing is falsifying the data, but I don’t mean that at all. In my mind, the biggest problem is that China’s reported GDP is an input into the economic system, not a measured output.
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Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
I don't know why you keep bringing up Michael Petis He is passe 10 years ago he is popular with western media because He talk what they want to hear China is declining , China growth come to dead end China capital efficiency is poor etc, etc Yet 10 years forward not only China keep growing but the quality of growth improve No longer China export pot and pan instead the largest component of Chinese export are electrical machinery, transportation etc No one foresaw the rise Huawei, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu or myriad other Chinese high tech that drive consumerism and e business in China. It is outside the economic theory that he know

Michael Petis is academic he should stay teaching and not pontificating on China economic development He has egg on his face
 
Y

Yvrch

Junior Member
Registered Member
Therein lies the problem of western pundits. If things don't fit their orthodox narratives, their narratives is right, everything else is wrong. Salvation comes only through accepting what they preach in textbooks scenarios. Guess he didn't foresee 2008 just like others so what's his ability to dissect the inner workings of extremely complex modern economy like China's. Not that much, except this broken records going in a loop.
He has a PhD and 18 years in China but not much to show for his understanding of how Chinese economy works and advances. Another 18 years would not make him any different.
A polite nod, smile and wave, that's all it takes to handle people like them.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Officially Chinese economy is 90 trillion yuan or 13.26 trillion USD roughly 66% of US economy adding 1 trillion over last year
China says its economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018. That's the lowest official pace in 28 years
  • China on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 — the slowest pace since 1990.
  • That full-year figure matched expectations from analysts polled by Reuters.
  • Fourth-quarter GDP growth also matched expectations, coming in at 6.4 percent on-year from 6.5 percent in the third quarter.
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Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Pedestrians walk past Chinese flags displayed along the Nanjing Road pedestrian street in Shanghai, China.
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on Monday announced that its official economic growth came in at 6.6 percent in 2018 — the slowest pace since 1990.

That announcement was highly anticipated by many around the world amid Beijing's ongoing trade dispute with the
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its largest trading partner.

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full-year GDP to come in at that pace, which was down from a
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Fourth quarter GDP growth was 6.4 percent, matching expectations. That was a decline from the 6.5 percent year-over-year growth in the third quarter of 2018.

There were a few bright spots in Monday's batch of official Chinese economic data.

Industrial output grew 5.7 percent in December from a year earlier — beating economists' expectations of 5.3 percent growth — outpacing November's 5.4 percent growth.


Retail sales data rose 8.2 percent in December on-year, in line with a forecast and up from November's 8.1 percent gain.

Although
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official GDP figures are tracked as an indicator of the health of the world's second-largest economy, many outside experts
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about the veracity of China's reports.

China's statistics bureau chief told reporters on Monday that his country's trade dispute with the U.S. has affected the domestic economy, but the impact was manageable, Reuters reported. He said China's economy has shown a slowing but stabilizing trend in the last two months, and that it was still driven overall by domestic demand.
 
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K

Klon

Junior Member
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By Wang Xiaodong, Zhang Wenfang and Ma Chi | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2019-01-21 11:27

China's population growth rate has reached the lowest level in decades, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday.

A total of 15.23 million babies were born last year on the Chinese mainland, a drop by about 2 million from that of 2017, according to data released by the NBS.

The population growth rate dropped from 532 to 381 per 100,000 population from 2017 to 2018, NBS figures show. The rate is the lowest since 1961.

It also marks the second year consecutive decrease since the country relaxed its family planning policy and fully implemented the universal second-child policy.

Before the population data was released on Monday, Zhai Zhenwu, a professor of sociology and population studies at Renmin University of China, predicted the number of birth for last year would continue to fall due to causes such as rapid decline in the number of women at childbearing age and people's lack of willingness to have more babies.

China adopted the universal second-child policy at the beginning of 2016, allowing all couples to have two children, to counter problems such as ageing and dwindling workforce. After the number of birth reached 17.86 million that year, the highest since 2000, the number of birth fell to 17.23 million in 2017.

Latest NBS figures also show that the total population on the Chinese mainland reached 1.395 billion, an increase of 5.3 million year-on-year.

The number of workforce, or those between 16 and 59 years old, stood at around 897 million, accounting for 64.3 percent of the total population. The number of people at 60 years old or above exceeded 249 million, accounting for 17.9 percent of the total population, according to the bureau.
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Gatekeeper

Gatekeeper

Brigadier
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
I don't know why you keep bringing up Michael Petis He is passe 10 years ago he is popular with western media because He talk what they want to hear China is declining , China growth come to dead end China capital efficiency is poor etc, etc Yet 10 years forward not only China keep growing but the quality of growth improve No longer China export pot and pan instead the largest component of Chinese export are electrical machinery, transportation etc No one foresaw the rise Huawei, Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu or myriad other Chinese high tech that drive consumerism and e business in China. It is outside the economic theory that he know

Michael Petis is academic he should stay teaching and not pontificating on China economic development He has egg on his face
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I think Michael pettis should stick with what he does best. And that's to teach and peddle propoganda for his American paymasters the "caneige endowment".

Anyway he was involved in taking a bet with the economists magazine back in 2012 where he bet China's growth rate will drop to 3% by end of this decade. Well he's got less than 12 months to win that bet. So I guess he's trying to influence every force he could muster to generate that elusive 3%!
Here's the link from BBC back in 2012 when the bet took place.
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