Chinese Economics Thread

[manqiangrexue]

Who does not know you're not Chinese? That is why your envy so overpowers any rational thinking you might have. You're not an economist by profession, I am quite sure, judging by your fumbling ways. So don't give up your day job yet. Many, and I mean many, economists, fund managers and heads of research, over the past two decades had predicted the demise of China, not just Gordon Chang.

A person who added GDP growth to inflation and subtracted the sum from consumption growth to get "real" consumption growth isn't a professional economist? You don't say! LOL That's math for people whose brain cells don't even fire in the right direction. Keep his day job? I don't think he has one to keep; every time he tries to describe how teams work together, it's like when National Geographic exceeds travel budget and resorts to putting out animated "documentaries" on what an alien planet might be like if they sent a space probe to discover one.

 

[broadsword]

A person who added GDP growth to inflation and subtracted the sum from consumption growth to get "real" consumption growth isn't a professional economist? You don't say! LOL That's math for people whose brain cells don't even fire in the right direction. Keep his day job? I don't think he has one to keep; every time he tries to describe how teams work together, it's like when National Geographic exceeds travel budget and resorts to putting out animated "documentaries" on what an alien planet might be like if they sent a space probe to discover one.

Then he needs to find a girlfriend. It's winter and Christmas is coming.

 

[Yvrch]

Around 1900.
If we use the USA as benchmark then Argentine had 40% of USA GDP PPP per capita,.

In 1991 Argentine was at 30% , at the just for reference, China is around 28% at the moment.

So, Argentina didn't escaped the middle income trap for 100 years, in the growth period it was rock stable politically, but in the stagnating period it has been unstable.

So, I think it is safe to say the issue the China facing is not economically, but rater politically, like in Argentine, around the topics who holding the wealth and the economical power.

And again, the stagnating household income ( NOT debt fuelled spending , that makes it worst) doesn't signal any positive about the transfer of power.

But why is it shocking for anyone?

It is quite obvious problem as I see.

It's a real shame we don't have genuine utter stupidity clause in forum rules.
It's your time to shine LoL.

1900 Argentina comparable to contemporary China?
Oh the thick skin.

 

[Jura The idiot]

now noticed the tweet

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Global electronics giant

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will invest $2.4 billion to build new battery and capacitor plants in northern China's Tianjin, according to local authorities. The capacitor factory is expected to be completed in 2019 and start operation in 2020

 

[Anlsvrthng]

You said I shouldn't compare Texas to China because they're too different so you bring up 1900's Argentina?? Desperation and brain rot is not a good combination for you. LOL 1900? At time when there was no technology and no global economy? A time when there's not even a reliable annual economic report? Why don't you go into BC years, find some hunting society and compare that to China's modern economy? LOL You've literally provided no details or sources, and can provide no details (or sources) of Argentina's economy back then and how it has any semblance to China's today. Completely invalid "argument."

Texas vs China was your argument, I agreed about it : ) and I compared Chian vs SK in car ownership.
That showed three times per capita car ownership in SK. It means China needs way higher car sales to catch up the SK.


1900 experienced unprecedented magnitude of changes in technology,like electricity, wireless communication exponentially grow in international trade, automobiles, steam turbines and so on.


The countries who just copied found themselves with outdated industry, as the frontier moved fast to new technologies,. suggest to check the advancement of radio communication/radar/broadcasting .

Alexanderson alternator ?

Saying you're not Chinese isn't evidence that you don't care. There are MANY non-Chinese who really really care to see China fail. The fact that you post here means you care because that action is time out of your life. Actions speak louder than words. The most pathetic people are those who spend time and effort and when they lose, they say they don't care LOL

Nobody said China wants USA style; China will keep our own style, and evolve it to be superior to USA style.

If China will stagnate with 0-2% average growth for 100 years, and stuck for 30% -25% ( like Argentina) of the USA per capita PPP GDP it would still means bigger economy and military strength than USA.
So I would not call it as fail.
That still makes the USA impotent in world warmongering.

Maybe for a Chinese who made a national price from 10% / year GDP growth it can be catastrophe, but the copy/past last for the 30-40 % of the frontier.


I follow many interesting development around the world /science, and the Chinese middle income trap is one of them.
At the moment all data point showing the trap by 80%.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

Many, and I mean many, economists, fund managers and heads of research, over the past two decades had predicted the demise of China, not just Gordon Chang.

Those guys have terrible track records. They usually follow the herd, check they track record in 08/09.

 

[broadsword]

Those guys have terrible track records. They usually follow the herd, check they track record in 08/09.

What makes you think your track record is better than those whose full-time job was analyzing data and some of whom were less blinded by envy because of career and reputation at stake? They had families to support, unlike you. You don't even have a girlfriend and unemployed.

 

[Anlsvrthng]

What makes you think your track record is better than those whose full-time job was analyzing data and some of whom were less blinded by envy because of career and reputation at stake? They had families to support, unlike you. You don't even have a girlfriend and unemployed.

Those guys job is not to make an objective assessment , but rather to sell products to the costumers : )

The banking business (they paying those guys) is about a simple rule : if the music goes everyone dance, and if it stops you hope that you will be one with chair.
Before 2008 there was no objective analysis about the credit risks in the USA, but seriously, you think that no analyser was aware of the problem?
They was paid not to destroy the business, but to dance....




However many bank & other institute saying the same (first google findings ):

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[broadsword]

Those guys job is not to make an objective assessment , but rather to sell products to the costumers : )

The banking business (they paying those guys) is about a simple rule : if the music goes everyone dance, and if it stops you hope that you will be one with chair.

Selling wrong info and analysis to customers intentionally will lose customers, my friend. But over here, you have nothing to lose hiding behind a pseudonym.

Before 2008 there was no objective analysis about the credit risks in the USA, but seriously, you think that no analyser was aware of the problem?
They was paid not to destroy the business, but to dance....




However many bank & other institute saying the same (first google findings ):

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There were people predicting the crisis before it hit. Way before you began studying economics.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Texas vs China was your argument, I agreed about it : ) and I compared Chian vs SK in car ownership.
That showed three times per capita car ownership in SK. It means China needs way higher car sales to catch up the SK.

I actually did not make a Texas vs China argument and you certainly did not agree. I said in NY, car ownership is lower than in Texas, but it doesn't mean that New Yorkers are poorer. China has no reason to catch up to any country in car ownership; China doesn't want to be a larger Korea. The traffic is already hell. China will find its own perfect mix of public vs private transportation and comparison to any other country is pointless just like trying to catch up in number of boats, bicycles, alcohol consumption, printed books, etc... In addition to it being pointless to start with, I've already pointed out all the points where China tries to restrict car ownership that is not done in Korea, and you have no answer.

1900 experienced unprecedented magnitude of changes in technology,like electricity, wireless communication exponentially grow in international trade, automobiles, steam turbines and so on.

Exponential growth in international trade doesn't mean it was important yet or that the economy is similar to today. A calf grows very quickly but it is worlds different from a champion bull. You cannot even understand that the economy of over a century ago is different than the one today so of course you cannot analyze any economics intelligently.

The countries who just copied found themselves with outdated industry, as the frontier moved fast to new technologies,. suggest to check the advancement of radio communication/radar/broadcasting .

Has nothing to do with China.

Alexanderson alternator ?

What kind of question is that? LOL

If China will stagnate with 0-2% average growth for 100 years, and stuck for 30% -25% ( like Argentina) of the USA per capita PPP GDP it would still means bigger economy and military strength than USA.
So I would not call it as fail.
That still makes the USA impotent in world warmongering.

Maybe for a Chinese who made a national price from 10% / year GDP growth it can be catastrophe, but the copy/past last for the 30-40 % of the frontier.

The only word of significance in your whole paragraph is the first word: "if." I stopped reading when I saw 100 years LOL. You are imagining a scenario completely divorced from fact.

I follow many interesting development around the world /science, and the Chinese middle income trap is one of them.
At the moment all data point showing the trap by 80%.

Please show all mathematical calculations for 80%. Would love to see how you pulled that number out of your ass.

Those guys have terrible track records. They usually follow the herd, check they track record in 08/09.

Everybody can laugh at them except you.

However many bank & other institute saying the same (first google findings ):

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The data is saying the same thing with the same numbers: Chinese debt is comfortably below levels of her peers. It doesn't matter how the authors spin it; just look at the numbers. I can't count the number of times I've read, "Japanese economy roars to growth in the first quarter, touching 0.9%, astounding economists" and "Chinese economy sluggish and running out of steam with a mere 6.9% last quarter."