Chinese Economics Thread

plawolf

Lieutenant General
As I have said before, China’s stock market is fundamentally diffeeent from western stock markets, so it would be comparing apples to oranges to compare them directly.

Western stock markets are overwhelmingly made up of hedge funds, banks and other professional outfits that use top analysists and advanced software to determine investment decisions. That is why western stock markets are a good indicator of overall economy performance.

In China, it is overwhelmingly household day traders, who can base their stock choices on little more than if the stock happen to be rising or falling at the particular moment in time or if they like the name of the company.

As such, Chinese stock market performance has little to no relation to the broader economic performance or even company performance.

Trying to analyse Chinese economic performance from Chinese stock markets is just an exercise in futility because the underlying data is just effectively mostly random noise.
 

Franklin

Captain
As I have said before, China’s stock market is fundamentally diffeeent from western stock markets, so it would be comparing apples to oranges to compare them directly.

Western stock markets are overwhelmingly made up of hedge funds, banks and other professional outfits that use top analysists and advanced software to determine investment decisions. That is why western stock markets are a good indicator of overall economy performance.

In China, it is overwhelmingly household day traders, who can base their stock choices on little more than if the stock happen to be rising or falling at the particular moment in time or if they like the name of the company.

As such, Chinese stock market performance has little to no relation to the broader economic performance or even company performance.

Trying to analyse Chinese economic performance from Chinese stock markets is just an exercise in futility because the underlying data is just effectively mostly random noise.
I strongly disagree with you that western stockmarkets are a good indicator of overall economic performance. Stockmarkets around the world are driven in no small part by sentiments meaning emotions like euforia or even outright manipulation of stock prices. Not to mention the influence interest rate and monetary policies has on the stockmarkets. (Interest rate have been at zero for quite some years now in the US, Europe and Japan that has helped to goose up the markets there.) That's why we have seen stockmarket bubbles and subsequent crashes throughout history. We had professional fund managers and computer algorithms back in 2008 and look what happened.

If we look at what is happening in the US today on the one hand stock, bond and real estate markets are breaking new records. But on the other hand we see both wage growth and interest rate shoot below even the OFFICIAL inflation nevermind the REAL inflation. Productivity in the US economy has only been growing 0,6% year over year on average since the so called recovery from 2009 onwards. The middle class keeps shrinking while homelessness and poverty is on the rise. And retail chains are either downsizing or simply going out of business outright left and right.
 
this thread?
Ecuador’s All-Seeing Eye Is Made in China
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The country's pioneering surveillance and response system is entirely Chinese-built and funded.
On his second and last day in Quito nearly two years ago, President Xi Jinping, the highest-ranked Chinese official to ever head to Ecuador, made a largely overlooked visit to a boxy government facility. Xi was driven up a small hill to the headquarters of one of Ecuador’s proudest public safety achievements: a national emergency response and video surveillance system built entirely by Chinese companies and financed by Chinese state loans. Inside the main building’s cavernous command center, a ticker atop a giant screen made up of dozens of monitors read “Welcome Mr. President Xi Jinping to ECU 911” in Spanish and Chinese.

Since Xi’s tour in late 2016, ECU 911 has expanded significantly in scope and sophistication. Initially funded by a $240 million Chinese loan in 2012, the system has a nationwide network of 4,300 surveillance
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, 16 regional response centers, and over 3,000 government
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diligently watching video footage and responding to millions of 911 calls every year. With the help of Chinese technology, ECU 911 now boasts thermal cameras that monitor snowcapped
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for signs of activity,
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capable of night vision, an automated
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for sending video evidence to courts, and an artificial intelligence research lab
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by Xi himself. It is also testing large-scale uses of facial recognition to catch suspects in major cities and their airports.

Credited with
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and saving lives after
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in a country long troubled by such issues, ECU 911 is portrayed by China as a showcase for its technological prowess and humanitarian impulses. And Ecuadorian politicians eager to show off new, hi-tech infrastructure to voters have been grateful. “The help from China is immense, and we only have words of gratitude, and it’s a great honor to welcome the president of this great country,”
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then-Ecuadorian President Rafael Correa during Xi’s visit in 2016.

But having China build and help operate such as a system has potential downsides, too. Experts told Foreign Policy that ECU 911’s use of technologies such as facial recognition could normalize the sort of intrusive surveillance that is becoming increasingly common in China. Surveillance systems dependent on China-made equipment could also present significant opportunities for Chinese intelligence operations or provide a powerful tool for authoritarian-leaning governments. Once an early pioneer, Ecuador is now one of several countries in South America importing Chinese-style surveillance systems wholesale. Such exports aren’t limited to South America. Just last month, Xi publicly
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for China to export its “social stability” techniques to the Arab world to the tune of 1 billion yuan, or $150 million.

—————————-

While ECU 911’s China ties are no secret, they aren’t often brought up in Ecuador, where the service is better known for the steady diet of
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and
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videos it feeds local media. ECU 911 also often highlights its impact through human interest stories, like when it responded to a 7-year-old’s worried phone
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about his sick baby sister or helped rescue an injured
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. “I don’t think many people know that there’s a company from China behind [ECU 911],” said Marco Cordova, a professor at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Ecuador.

While traffic and crime videos aren’t likely to be used for repressive purposes, there are fears that ECU 911’s increasing technical sophistication could put dangerous tools in the hands of the government. In 2016, a digital rights organization, Usuarios Digitales,
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over a report that 3,500 of ECU 911’s cameras would begin testing out facial recognition software, expressing concern that the technology could be used against people participating in protests and other such events.

The Ecuadorian government has a history of harnessing data to suppress opposition movements, according to Alfredo Velazco, Usuarios Digitales’ director. Correa, the populist left-leaning former president, gained notoriety for overseeing a
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surveillance and propaganda apparatus that included pro-government troll factories and saw the intelligence services contracting an outside agency to
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an opposition politician.

But Usuarios Digitales’ complaint fell on deaf ears, despite the new presidency of Lenín Moreno, who has attempted to
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on his predecessor’s heavier-handed legacy and even
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Correa of setting up a hidden camera (unrelated to ECU 911) in his office. This January, the Chinese state news agency Xinhua
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that facial recognition was being used in some of Ecuador’s biggest airports. Just last month, an Ecuadorian TV outlet
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that ECU 911 cameras were using facial recognition in major cities to find missing people and criminal suspects.

“We’ve been able to avert many incidents by identifying and profiling possible delinquents who are ambushing people, who we can observe in the exits of shopping malls, educational institutions,” Francisco Robayo, the director-general of ECU 911, told the outlet.
 
now I read
Xinhua Headlines: China's private businesses gain momentum amid challenges
Xinhua| 2018-08-29 21:15:57
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China's private businesses have gained momentum in 2017, adding to positive signs of an economy that pushes forward high-quality growth.

China on Wednesday unveiled its latest ranking for top 500 private enterprises, with telecom equipment giant Huawei and e-commerce firm Suning atop the list amid sound development of the country's private business.

The list by the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce (ACFIC) came at the 2018 Summit of China Top 500 Private Enterprises held in Shenyang, the capital of northeast China's Liaoning Province.

Revenues of the nine largest private firms all exceeded 300 billion yuan (44 billion U.S. dollars) in 2017. The top companies include Huawei, Suning, Amer International, JD.com, Weiqiao Pioneering Group, Legend Holdings, Evergrande, and Gome Holdings.

Of the top 500 private companies, 61 firms saw their total assets surpass 100 billion yuan last year, 11 more than in 2016.

To be listed as China's top 500 private companies last year, an enterprise need to have its revenues exceeding 15.68 billion yuan.

According to ACFIC vice chairman Huang Rong, the list came out of more than 4,600 Chinese private firms which voluntarily participated in an ACFIC survey. Not all big private enterprises are covered.

Since reform and opening up in the late 1970s, private businesses have assumed a bigger role in driving growth. The sector now contributes more than 60 percent of China's GDP growth and provides over 80 percent of jobs.

"The development of private investment and businesses are key to China's economic vitality. Changes on the 500 top private firms list show new trends in the country's economy," said Zhang Wanqiang, an economist with Liaoning Provincial Academy of Social Sciences.

The trends, observed by Hu Biliang, an economist with Beijing Normal University, include industrial structure optimization, fewer irrational outbound investment and more research and development (R&D) input.

"China's private businesses continued to take on a sound development momentum in 2017," Huang said, adding the private companies have steadily optimized its industrial structure with greater contribution to society.

Last year, 162 private firms in the service sector were on the list, up 38.46 percent compared with the figure in 2012. Meanwhile, the number of firms in the secondary industry fell in the fifth consecutive year from 380 in 2012 to 333 in 2017.

The number of export-oriented firms on the list declined from 259 in 2016 to 230 last year. The total exports of the top 500 private enterprises dropped by 16.28 percent year on year to around 125.2 billion U.S. dollars in 2017.

"The number of overseas investment projects for top 500 private firms has declined in 2017, for the first time in over the past five years," said Wang Zhile, head of Beijing New Century Academy on Transnational Corporations.

"The decline is a result of the government's strengthened efforts to curb irrational outbound investment and companies' more prudent attitude toward overseas projects," said Hu.

The trends are in line with China's massive transformation toward quality development, which is to turn the Chinese economy, once heavily reliant on fixed-asset investment and exports, into a service and consumption-led growth pattern.

Nonetheless, more Chinese private companies started investing in countries and regions along the Belt and Road last year, which fuelled export growth.

"Thanks to the Belt and Road Initiative, around 47 percent of our sales volume came from overseas markets last year. The initiative offers us a good platform to go global. I believe that TCL's growth in overseas markets will continue outpacing that in the domestic market in the future," said Li Dongsheng, chairman of Chinese home appliance giant TCL.

Another trend lies in R&D input increase. R&D workers in 189 private firms on Wednesday's list account for over 10 percent of their total business employment, compared with 12 companies in 2016.

They play a vital role in creating new ideas and technologies that keep companies competitive, create new markets and spur economic growth. "Leading companies have realized the importance of R&D input for firms," said Huang.

Zhang Jin, board chairman of Cedar Holdings Group, said that nation and company alike, their development will be limited if they lack independent innovation.

At the end of 2017, there were 65.79 million individually-owned businesses and 27.26 million private enterprises in China, which employed some 340 million people.

China's private investment grew 6 percent year on year, 2.8 percentage points higher than a year earlier, to 38.2 trillion yuan last year, according to official data.

But in recent years, activities in the private sector have become less vibrant due to economic headwinds, higher labor and material costs, entry restrictions and financing difficulties.

The trend has alarmed authorities, prompting the implementation of further measures to stimulate activities, such as streamlining investment project approvals for private investors, lowering the threshold for private firms to enter key areas, and making financing more accessible and affordable.

"Aimless and speculative enterprises will not live long. Most of the 500 top private firms thrive in the real economy, engaging in a specific field for decades," said Zhang Jindong, chairman of Chinese electronics retailer Suning Holdings Group, adding that a down-to-earth approach is the secret for a successful company.
 
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China launches official online rumor information platform
Xinhua| 2018-08-29 22:56:26
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A national-level platform to alert the public about online rumors and refute slander was launched in Beijing Wednesday.

The platform is hosted by the Internet Illegal Information Reporting Center under the Office of the Central Cyberspace Affairs Commission and operated by xinhuanet.com.

The platform operates under the guidance of 27 units, such as the Party School of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, and the National Development and Reform Commission.

The platform allows the public to quickly discover and debunk rumors floating around online, while at the same time throwing light on pseudoscientific theories.

So far, more than 40 rumor-refuting platforms have been integrated into the national one. Cutting-edge technology is also utilized to improve performance at tackling online rumors.

While the internet has become a vital source for the public to acquire daily information and express opinions, a number of problems including spreading rumors and illegal information, continue to exist and disturb social order.
 
now I read
China announces new measures to bolster real economy
Xinhua| 2018-08-30 23:56:52
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China has decided to roll out a raft of measures to bolster the real economy, with the goal of reducing the tax burden on businesses by more than 45 billion yuan (6.61 billion U.S. dollars) this year.

The new policy support will include tax reductions for factories affected by capacity cuts and money-hungry small and micro companies, according to a State Council executive meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang on Thursday.

Tax reductions are significant to pursuing a proactive fiscal policy and maintaining a stable economy, said a statement released after the meeting.

The government will offer tax breaks to enterprises facing production suspension due to capacity cuts or industrial restructuring, as well as to investment businesses related to social security funds and basic pension insurance funds.

Small and micro businesses will also be able to enjoy a value-added tax exemption from next month to the end of 2020 on interest income from loans of up to 10 million yuan, up from the previous 5 million yuan.

Foreign institutions will be exempted from corporate income tax and value-added tax for their interest gains from domestic bond market investments for three years, while export rebate rates for certain products will be raised, the statement said.

The meeting also arranged work to improve the national list of essential drugs, adding 187 medicines to the list to expand the total number of drugs to 685 with a focus on those related to cancer, chronic diseases and children.

The national list of essential drugs should be adjusted timely to include newly-approved, effective and reasonably-priced medicines, the statement said.

Officials at the meeting pledged efforts to reduce the burden of medical expenses on patients and ensure the supply of essential drugs.
 
now
Economic Watch: Robust factory, service activities show resilience in real economy
Xinhua| 2018-08-31 17:10:04
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China's factory and service activities picked up in August, adding to signs that the economy is showing resilience amid government measures to bolster the real economy.

The country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 51.3 this month, accelerating from 51.2 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said Friday.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below reflects contraction.

The figure beat market consensus of about 51, mainly driven by the notably higher industrial product prices, said investment banking China International Capital Corporation in a research note.

In August, the input and output price sub-indices jumped to 58.7 and 54.3, respectively, from 54.3 and 50.5 in July, indicating that the yet-to-be-released producer price index for August may exceed expectations, according to investment bank Nomura.

August's reading was flat, with an average reading of 51.3 for the first eight months of the year, according to NBS senior statistician Zhao Qinghe.

"Production continued to expand while market demand remained generally stable," Zhao said.

Sub-index for production rose to 53.3 from 53 in July while the sub-index for new orders edged down from 52.3 in July to 52.2 in August.

Friday's data also showed that China's non-manufacturing sector expanded at a faster pace, with the PMI for the sector standing at 54.2 in August, up from 54 in July.

The service sector, which accounts for more than half of the country's GDP, registered fast growth, with the sub-index measuring business activity in the industry standing at 53.4, up from 53 in July.

Rapid expansion was seen in industries including air and railway transportation, retailing and telecommunications, the NBS said.

Friday's data came in amid looming concerns over a slowdown in the Chinese economy as investment growth showed signs of softening while external uncertainties remained.

Authorities have pledged coordinated efforts and policies to stabilize employment, finance, foreign trade, foreign investment, investment and expectations, with measures such as tax cuts and cheaper financing to support the real economy.

A State Council meeting Thursday announced new measures that are expected to reduce the tax burden on businesses by more than 45 billion yuan (6.6 billion U.S. dollars) this year.

Favorable policies have been rolled out to shore up infrastructure investment, which showed signs of decelerated growth during the first seven months of the year.

Infrastructure investment will likely rebound in the future amid the policies, while the industrial sector will maintain steady growth, Huatai Securities said in a research note.
 
now noticed the tweet
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As many as 601K barrels of Middle Eastern crude will be delivered to buyers from Sept 3 to 7, the first physical settlement of
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's yuan-denominated oil futures contract through the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE)

DmN7HDJU0AEs8Iw.jpg
 
now noticed
Alibaba’s Jack Ma, China’s Richest Man, to Retire From Company He Co-Founded
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Alibaba’s co-founder and executive chairman, Jack Ma, said he planned to step down from the Chinese e-commerce giant on Monday to pursue philanthropy in education, a changing of the guard for the $420 billion internet company.

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, Mr. Ma started Alibaba in 1999 and built it into one of the world’s most consequential e-commerce and digital payments companies, transforming how Chinese people shop and pay for things. That fueled his net worth to more than $40 billion, making him China’s richest man. He is revered by many Chinese, some of whom have put his portrait in their homes to worship in the same way that they worship the God of Wealth.

Mr. Ma is retiring as China’s business environment has soured, with Beijing and state-owned enterprises increasingly playing more interventionist roles with companies. Under President Xi Jinping, China’s internet industry has grown and become more important, prompting the government to tighten its leash. The Chinese economy is also facing slowing growth and increasing debt, and the country is embroiled in an
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.

“He’s a symbol of the health of China’s private sector and how high they can fly whether he likes it or not,” Duncan Clark, author of the book “Alibaba: The House Jack Ma Built,” said of Mr. Ma. “His retirement will be interpreted as frustration or concern whether he likes it or not.”

In an interview, Mr. Ma said his retirement is not the end of an era but “the beginning of an era.” He said he would be spending more of his time and fortune focused on education. “I love education,” he said.

Mr. Ma will remain on Alibaba’s board of directors and continue to mentor the company’s management. Mr. Ma turns 54 on Monday, which is also a holiday in China known as Teacher’s Day.

The retirement makes Mr. Ma one of the first founders among a generation of prominent Chinese internet entrepreneurs to step down from their companies. Firms including Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu and JD.com have flourished in recent years, growing to nearly rival American internet behemoths like Amazon and Google in their size, scope and ambition. For Chinese tycoons to step aside in their 50s is rare; they usually remain at the top of their organizations for many years.

The departure of Mr. Ma is likely to jolt China’s internet industry, which has been reeling from the
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, the billionaire founder of the online retailer JD.com. Mr. Liu, who goes by Richard Liu in the English-speaking world, was arrested on a rape allegation in Minneapolis during a business trip. He was released and has since returned to Beijing, where JD.com is based.

For Alibaba, Mr. Ma’s retirement completes a transition of power to other executives. Mr. Ma stepped down as Alibaba’s chief executive in 2013; the company’s current
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, who is a candidate to succeed Mr. Ma. Yet Mr. Ma had remained active as the face of the e-commerce firm, as well as an architect of its long-term strategy. He owns
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of Alibaba, according to securities filings, but has considerably more sway over the company thanks to its complicated legal structure.

Mr. Ma, a natural salesman and charismatic leader, co-founded Alibaba with 17 others — some of them his students — out of his apartment in Hangzhou in eastern Zhejiang province in 1999.

Alibaba started as an online marketplace for businesses to sell their products to other businesses. But it did not take off until it began the Taobao marketplace in 2003, which merchants used to sell goods directly to consumers. Alibaba later rolled out Alipay, an online payment service, to facilitate transactions in a country where few people had credit cards. Alipay later became Ant Financial, the financial subsidiary that Mr. Ma also controls.

Today, Alibaba’s empire encompasses e-commerce, online banking, cloud computing, digital media and entertainment — and even a corporate messaging service similar to Slack. The company owns or holds stakes in some of China’s most important media assets, including the Twitter-like social media site Weibo and the Hong Kong-based English-language newspaper The South China Morning Post.

Among China’s biggest companies, Alibaba is viewed as one of the firms with the deepest ranks of management talent. Many of the co-founders are still around, and professionals who joined the company later are now in charge.

Last month, Alibaba
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in quarterly sales, even as profits fell. The company’s annual revenue totals about 250 billion yuan, or $40 billion.

While Alibaba has become dominant in China, it has faced a tougher time expanding internationally. The company has increased its presence outside of China by investing in e-commerce and online finance companies in India and Southeast Asia. But its efforts to muscle into the United States largely have not been successful.

Even after
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in early 2017 and promised to bring one million jobs to the United States, the federal government rejected Ant Financial’s bid to
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this year over national security concerns.

As Beijing has increased its involvement in the private sector, Mr. Ma has shifted what he has said about China’s government. He used to say that businesses should be in love with the government but never get married to each other, indicating that an arms-length relationship was preferred.

At a conference last November, Mr. Ma was more positive. “There’s no country like China in the world,” he said. “With political stability, social safety and 6 percent-plus economic growth, we have the best business environment.”

As Alibaba has flourished, Mr. Ma has talked many times about how he did not want to spend his whole life at the company, saying he would retire one day and go back to teaching.

In 2014, he created the Jack Ma Foundation, which has worked to improve education in rural China. Mr. Ma’s Weibo social media handle is “spokesman for village teachers — Jack Ma.” Within Alibaba, he is known and referred to as “Teacher Ma.”

In an
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, Mr. Ma signaled he was thinking about focusing more on philanthropy. He cited the Microsoft co-founder and philanthropist Bill Gates as an example.

Mr. Ma said he could never be as rich as Mr. Gates — but that he could retire earlier than Mr. Gates. Mr. Gates
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in 2014, at the age of 58.
 
Saturday at 8:40 AM
now noticed
Alibaba’s Jack Ma, China’s Richest Man, to Retire From Company He Co-Founded
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now
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Jack Ma, co-founder and executive chairman of e-commerce giant Alibaba, will stand down as executive chairman of Alibaba Group from September 10, 2019; CEO Daniel Zhang will succeed him, Alibaba announced on Monday

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