Chinese Economics Thread

[hkbc]

My nomination for "Chutzpah economics" article of the year so far!

Trade war with US could be the tipping point for China’s $14 trillion debt-ridden economy

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I thought it was a typo at first, the author had transposed US and China, but nope the nice folks from the land that generate deficits like kids in candy stores, now reckons it's the Chinese economy that's going to collapse under a mountain of debt when a trade war kicks off.

 

[Quickie]

My nomination for "Chutzpah economics" article of the year so far!

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I thought it was a typo at first, the author had transposed US and China, but nope the nice folks from the land that generate deficits like kids in candy stores, now reckons it's the Chinese economy that's going to collapse under a mountain of debt when a trade war kicks off.

Here we go again, with another twist to the story of how China's economy could collapse soon. This has been going on for the past 40 years.

 

[hkbc]

It's sometimes difficult to know what's really going on as Jura would say Now I Read

China’s bonds emerge as the surprise sanctuary while the world’s debt market retreats

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So on one hand a bunch of journos @CNBC reckons it's all going to collapse in a giant heap (see my previous post) and on the other a bunch of investors is reported as hoovering up Chinese debt like it's the new American debt.

 

[siegecrossbow]

Added negotiations leverage?

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In 2017, the US Department of Commerce fined ZTE almost $900 million for violating sanctions by illegally shipping US goods to Iran. Then, last week the DoC stepped up the punishment after ZTE failed to fully comply with its restrictions by

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, preventing it from purchasing parts and components from all US companies for the next seven years.

However, it seems the US government isn’t quite done searching for rule breakers, because now the Justice Department has turned its sights on Huawei, which according to

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is also being investigated for possibly side-stepping the US’ sanctions on Iran.



This probe is just the latest in a string of increasingly hostile policies and agendas that seek to push the Chinese networking and smartphone giant out of the US. Just before CES, rumors broke that

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with Huawei to carry the company’s phone in its retail stores, a move largely spurred by fears that Huawei may be using its phones to spy on Americans.

Verizon

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at the end of January when it also pulled out of an agreement to carry Huawei phones in retail stores. Then in February, things became even more heated when the heads of several major intelligence agencies including the NSA, FBI and CIA

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, with FBI Director Chris Wray saying Huawei “provides the capacity to maliciously modify or steal information. And it provides the capacity to conduct undetected espionage.”

However, despite some pretty bombastic claims about Huawei being a potential security risk, US Intelligence agencies have yet to provide any evidence of Huawei actually spying on its users. As for the latest investigation regarding the Iran sanctions, The Wall Street says it’s still “unclear how far the Justice Department probe has advanced.”

Without getting too far into tin foil hat conspiracy theories, at some point you have to wonder if the US government isn’t simply looking for any sort of violations it can use to push Huawei out of the country, regardless of the severity or reason.

In regards to Huawei’s measly one percent market share for telecommunications equipment in the US, Senator Tom Cotton said, “That pleases me, although it’s not zero,” before adding “And that’s where I’d like to get it.”

 

[Lethe]

^ If ZTE can no longer do business in or with the USA, what incentive does it have to pay a $900m fine? Hopefully it has not already been paid.

The April 2018 update to the IMF

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updates GDP forecasts out through 2023:

2023 GDP in current USD
USA: $24.54tn
China: $21.57tn

The IMF therefore projects that in 2023 China's GDP will be 88% of USA's, up from 62% in 2017.

 

[PiSigma]

Added negotiations leverage?

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China can always reply with any company that does business with Taiwan will be fined or kicked out of China.

 

[siegecrossbow]

^ If ZTE can no longer do business in or with the USA, what incentive does it have to pay a $900m fine? Hopefully it has not already been paid.

The April 2018 update to the IMF

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updates GDP forecasts out through 2023:

2023 GDP in current USD
USA: $24.54tn
China: $21.57tn

The IMF therefore projects that in 2023 China's GDP will be 88% of USA's, up from 62% in 2017.

I thought ZTE already paid the fine in 2016?

 

[AssassinsMace]

The ZTE example is why China should give the finger to any criticism of Made in China 2025 and never entertain negotiating it with the West. It's not a crime for Western countries to develop technology on its own to not be dependent on others but it is when it's China's goal? Just shows how the West doesn't see everyone as equal. They only see Chinese existence's only purpose is to give them money. Trade is just a cover for laundering imperialism to make it look legit. Just look at Hollywood. They think they're being treated unfairly in China with so many restriction imposed on them by Beijing. Well where's the fair and equal amount of Chinese movies shown in US theaters? There's no level playing field there yet they think they're being treated unfairly. Hollywood makes more money in China alone with all those unfair restrictions than all the world's foreign movies make in the US box office. That's a cultural mentality not only Hollywood's. Just like how Western countries are complaining and think it's their right to use China as their garbage can and they're the victim when they can't dump their garbage on China. Does China get to dump half its garbage onto their countries? No. They have a twisted sense of what's fair and a level playing field.

What the West is afraid of most is China in the future will do to them what they're already doing to China right now. When does China get to slap sanctions for bad behavior on the US like bombing countries left and right every year? It doesn't happen. No one except the West slaps sanctions on other countries for anything. China's independence technologically and economically will not only make China be able to strike back against any Western moves against it, China will be able to slap sanctions back. Why are they afraid of OBOR? It's because ultimately China could lead multinational sanctions against the West just like how the US leads the West to sanction other countries. And one of the worst nightmare scenarios for the West is not a military attack by China on them. It's that China might act like the West doesn't exist and ignore their opinion like they do with most of the world right now. It has nothing to do with the US's concern over unfair trade or the EU's concern over transparency in OBOR. Those are just excuses to prevent their worst nightmare scenario from happening. The only way they can stop it if China doesn't voluntarily comply to their wishes is to be the universally seen bad guy when they start the war. Just imagine if China lead a coalition to internationally ban nuclear weapons and if any country doesn't comply, they'll be sanctioned. The US wants to keep its nukes. That's why the US has never led such a ban. Guess who's going to look like the belligerent rogue nation? They don't ever want the West in a position they put every other country in.

You know when the West will like China is like when Donald Trump Jr. said in India that he loved the Indian people because they live in poverty and they still have a smile on their faces. When will the Chinese know their place the West puts them in and just accept it?

 

[hkbc]

The ZTE example is why China should give the finger to any criticism of Made in China 2025 and never entertain negotiating it with the West. It's not a crime for Western countries to develop technology on its own to not be dependent on others but it is when it's China's goal? Just shows how the West doesn't see everyone as equal. They only see Chinese existence's only purpose is to give them money. Trade is just a cover for laundering imperialism to make it look legit. Just look at Hollywood. They think they're being treated unfairly in China with so many restriction imposed on them by Beijing. Well where's the fair and equal amount of Chinese movies shown in US theaters? There's no level playing field there yet they think they're being treated unfairly. Hollywood makes more money in China alone with all those unfair restrictions than all the world's foreign movies make in the US box office. That's a cultural mentality not only Hollywood's. Just like how Western countries are complaining and think it's their right to use China as their garbage can and they're the victim when they can't dump their garbage on China. Does China get to dump half its garbage onto their countries? No. They have a twisted sense of what's fair and a level playing field.

What the West is afraid of most is China in the future will do to them what they're already doing to China right now. When does China get to slap sanctions for bad behavior on the US like bombing countries left and right every year? It doesn't happen. No one except the West slaps sanctions on other countries for anything. China's independence technologically and economically will not only make China be able to strike back against any Western moves against it, China will be able to slap sanctions back. Why are they afraid of OBOR? It's because ultimately China could lead multinational sanctions against the West just like how the US leads the West to sanction other countries. And one of the worst nightmare scenarios for the West is not a military attack by China on them. It's that China might act like the West doesn't exist and ignore their opinion like they do with most of the world right now. It has nothing to do with the US's concern over unfair trade or the EU's concern over transparency in OBOR. Those are just excuses to prevent their worst nightmare scenario from happening. The only way they can stop it if China doesn't voluntarily comply to their wishes is to be the universally seen bad guy when they start the war. Just imagine if China lead a coalition to internationally ban nuclear weapons and if any country doesn't comply, they'll be sanctioned. The US wants to keep its nukes. That's why the US has never led such a ban. Guess who's going to look like the belligerent rogue nation? They don't ever want the West in a position they put every other country in.

You know when the West will like China is like when Donald Trump Jr. said in India that he loved the Indian people because they live in poverty and they still have a smile on their faces. When will the Chinese know their place the West puts them in and just accept it?

Suggest you stop using the blanket term "the west" and just use "the US" it's shorter and much more accurate. As an example Canada by any one's definition is in the West but I don't think it matches the descriptions or narrative you're throwing out there.

 

[PiSigma]

Suggest you stop using the blanket term "the west" and just use "the US" it's shorter and much more accurate. As an example Canada by any one's definition is in the West but I don't think it matches the descriptions or narrative you're throwing out there.

He is using the west because he sees countries like UK France Canada etc as having nonindependent foreign policy. Basically satrapies of USA.