Chinese Economics Thread

[Lethe]

Well sure, if 'old' is everyone over 60....

In 2035 China's total dependency ratio (children plus elderly compared to working age population) will be about what USA's is today. Even in 2050, China will have a lower total dependency ratio than USA.

So yes the shifts are significant and will be challenging for Chinese society, but they not unprecedented.

 

[Franklin]

This is what happens when you try to one up mother nature even if done under good intentions. It ultimately bites you in the back. Hopefully automation and advancement in technology can mitigate some of these aging population issue.
It will take a couple more generation before China's population regain equity and stabilized across the age and gender differential.

I myself would be considered elderly come 2035 but luckily for me there are gazilions of millineials and young whipersnappers here to support folks like me... of course I may still have to work all the way to my grave site with reduction in SS and other benefits.

How many children do you have ? US population growth is slowing down close to China levels and your future pension is linked to the stock market which at this point is one huge bubble of biblical proportions. The central banks insist on 2% inflation a year. This means that over the next 18 years the currency will loose more than 36% of its purchasing power. The inflation will eat away your savings and your future pension annuities. So, yes you and the rest of us will have to work to our graves.

 

[kwaigonegin]

How many children do you have ? US population growth is slowing down close to China levels ......

That is simply incorrect. The US population is growth is healthy and actually one of the highest amongst all developed nations.
Even the Chinese gov. themselves have now realized the effects of the1 child policy and the gender imbalance between males and females is a very serious cause for concern in the coming decade.
As to economic specifics I can't speak to that since that is all speculation and involves multiple other factoids unlike population which is hard numbers and much easier to forcast..

 

[solarz]

This is what happens when you try to one up mother nature even if done under good intentions. It ultimately bites you in the back. Hopefully automation and advancement in technology can mitigate some of these aging population issue.
It will take a couple more generation before China's population regain equity and stabilized across the age and gender differential.

I myself would be considered elderly come 2035 but luckily for me there are gazilions of millineials and young whipersnappers here to support folks like me... of course I may still have to work all the way to my grave site with reduction in SS and other benefits.

The problem with that analysis is that Japan has an even worse aging problemen, and they never had any family planning policy.

China's family planning policy was implemented around 1980 and relaxed around 2010. That's about 30 years. The compliance rate is about 60%, but that figure includes families with twins and those with a first-born daughter who can legally have a second child. Average childbirth age being around 25, that means there are lots of families who were never affected by the one-child policy. For example, people who were born in the 70's would have siblings, and by the time the policy relaxed, they would only be in their 30's, a prime age for having a second child.

To put it into perspective, assuming China's population peaks at 1.4 billion in 2035, 400 million elders is around 28%. Even today, Japan's proportion is 27%, and many European countries hover around 20%.

So in 20 years, China's population will be like what Japan has today. Not exactly a disaster.

 

[kwaigonegin]

The problem with that analysis is that Japan has an even worse aging problemen, and they never had any family planning policy.

China's family planning policy was implemented around 1980 and relaxed around 2010. That's about 30 years. The compliance rate is about 60%, but that figure includes families with twins and those with a first-born daughter who can legally have a second child. Average childbirth age being around 25, that means there are lots of families who were never affected by the one-child policy. For example, people who were born in the 70's would have siblings, and by the time the policy relaxed, they would only be in their 30's, a prime age for having a second child.

To put it into perspective, assuming China's population peaks at 1.4 billion in 2035, 400 million elders is around 28%. Even today, Japan's proportion is 27%, and many European countries hover around 20%.

So in 20 years, China's population will be like what Japan has today. Not exactly a disaster.

Not a disaster but Japan IS in a bad spot! there are no two ways about it. People much much smarter than you or I have written thousands of articles in regards to this issue.A declining birth rate and the increase in longevity will cause both social and economic strain in the next generation or two until it stabilizes.
With that being said,China does have an additional problem which Japan do not have and that is a gender imbalance which may cause social issues as well with tens of million of men within a single generation not being able to find a bride.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Guangdong economy powered by advanced manufacturing and smartphone technology

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

| November 1, 2017 |

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

up 7.6 percent year-on-year, while GDP in East China’s Jiangsu province hit 6.26 trillion yuan, up 7.2 percent, reported China Business News Tuesday.

The GDP growth rate in Guangdong province was 0.3 percentage points higher than that in the same period last year. In addition, Guangdong’s first three quarter GDP accounted for 10.6 percent of China’s entire GDP, 0.1 percentage points higher than the percentage in the same period last year.

In the first nine months of this year, industry contributed 37.9 percent of the GDP growth in Guangdong, 1.6 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.5 percentage points higher than the first half of this year.

Advanced equipment manufacturing and home appliance manufacturing along the west shore of Pearl River has improved a lot and the smartphone industry in Dongguan city, along the east shore of Pearl River, has been developing fast.

During the first three quarters, GDP in advanced and new technology industries in Jiangsu province reached 5.47 trillion yuan, up 14.5 percent year-on-year and accounting for 42 percent of the whole output of industrial companies above the designated level.

 

[solarz]

Not a disaster but Japan IS in a bad spot! there are no two ways about it. People much much smarter than you or I have written thousands of articles in regards to this issue.A declining birth rate and the increase in longevity will cause both social and economic strain in the next generation or two until it stabilizes.
With that being said,China does have an additional problem which Japan do not have and that is a gender imbalance which may cause social issues as well with tens of million of men within a single generation not being able to find a bride.

Japan is only in a bad spot because of its trend, right now they can still handle it.

On the other hand, there is nothing that says China's 400 million elders in 2035 will continue to grow in proportion. For all we know, that could be the peak.

Gender imbalance is not really an issue, beyond the development of some strange attitudes toward marriage. As China's living standards and economic prospects improve, immigration will easily take care of any imbalance.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Not a disaster but Japan IS in a bad spot! there are no two ways about it. People much much smarter than you or I have written thousands of articles in regards to this issue.A declining birth rate and the increase in longevity will cause both social and economic strain in the next generation or two until it stabilizes.
With that being said,China does have an additional problem which Japan do not have and that is a gender imbalance which may cause social issues as well with tens of million of men within a single generation not being able to find a bride.

What Gender issue? With improving standard of living China now attracted a lot of bride to be from the neighboring country
The lower class can choose Vietnamese, Lao or Myanmar bride

Well if you have plenty of money than the choice is even better How about Ukrainian bride

How about Russian bride

Here is one lucky guy who get hitch with beautiful Ukrainian wife His story cause a stir in China . He come from working class family has no money and fail entrance exam and at loss what to do . So his friend invite him to Ukraine. Because it is cheap he went there speak no language and bored to death He play pingpong at community hall met this beautiful girl but to scare to ask out . But he is amateur photographer and ask this girl to be his model eventually win her heart and open restaurant in Ukraine got successful and branch into import and export of wheat an machinery. Built himself 3400 sq m home. Now he want to be match maker because so many Chinese men ask him to find them bride

You too can find a beautiful Ukrainian wife, says this Chinese entrepreneur
PHOTO: Weibo/Mei Aisi
LAM MIN LEE

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Remember him?

In 2014, Mei Aisi made Chinese men green with envy by

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

After answering endless questions on how a man from a humble background like him managed to charm such an attractive foreign lady, Mei now wants to play matchmaker.


Late last year, he

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

to bring Chinese men and Ukrainian ladies together.

Culove organises monthly tours to Ukraine for bachelors to meet their prospective brides.

You can find a beautiful Ukrainian wife too, this Chinese entrepreneur says

• Remember him? In 2014, Mei Aisi made Chinese men green with envy by marrying a young and beautiful Ukrainian woman.
  
  " style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 1px; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 598.661px; flex: 1 1 0%; position: relative; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; background-color: transparent;">
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

On each tour, 10 male participants pay about 69,000 yuan (S$14,000) for the six-day tour, which includes stays in five-star hotels and lavish dinner parties where they are introduced to 30 foreign beauties.

After the formal introduction, participants are free to get to know each other better in the following days through one-on-one dates at various scenic spots.

To help love blossom between the participants, Mei's company conducts free classes for Ukrainian women to introduce them to Chinese culture and learn how to converse in Mandarin.

READ ALSO

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In comparison with Chinese women who have set high standards for an ideal spouse, Mei said that Ukrainian women marry more for love and less for money.

And this is turning out to be a lucrative business too.

Mei said in TV programme Maker China that his team of three at Culove has managed to rake in 6 million yuan (S$1.2 million) over the first six months of operation.

Barely a year after launching the dating service, Mei has already seen at least one imposter in China that is offering similar services online.

But judging by how lavish Culove's dates are, it seems like only successful Chinese bachelors will be able to find an attractive foreign bride.

 

[manqiangrexue]

What Gender issue? With improving standard of living China now attracted a lot of bride to be from the neighboring country
The lower class can choose Vietnamese, Lao or Myanmar bride

Well if you have plenty of money than the choice is even better How about Ukrainian bride

Here is one lucky who get hitch with beautiful Ukrainian wife His story cause a stir in China . He come from working class family has no money and fail entrance exam and at loss what to do . So his friend invite him to Ukraine. Because it is cheap he went there speak no language and bored to death He play pingpong at community hall met this beautiful girl but to scare to ask out . But he is amateur photographer and ask this girl to be his model eventually win her heart and open restaurant in Ukraine got successful and branch into import and export of wheat an machinery. Built himself 3400 sq m home. Now he want to be match maker because so many Chinese men ask him to find them bride

You too can find a beautiful Ukrainian wife, says this Chinese entrepreneur
PHOTO: Weibo/Mei Aisi
LAM MIN LEE

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Remember him?

In 2014, Mei Aisi made Chinese men green with envy by

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

View attachment 42942

After answering endless questions on how a man from a humble background like him managed to charm such an attractive foreign lady, Mei now wants to play matchmaker.


Late last year, he

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

to bring Chinese men and Ukrainian ladies together.

Culove organises monthly tours to Ukraine for bachelors to meet their prospective brides.

You can find a beautiful Ukrainian wife too, this Chinese entrepreneur says

• Remember him? In 2014, Mei Aisi made Chinese men green with envy by marrying a young and beautiful Ukrainian woman.
  
  " style="box-sizing: border-box; padding: 1px; float: left; cursor: pointer; width: 598.661px; flex: 1 1 0%; position: relative; display: inline-block; vertical-align: middle; max-width: 100%; background-color: transparent;">
  Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

On each tour, 10 male participants pay about 69,000 yuan (S$14,000) for the six-day tour, which includes stays in five-star hotels and lavish dinner parties where they are introduced to 30 foreign beauties.

After the formal introduction, participants are free to get to know each other better in the following days through one-on-one dates at various scenic spots.

To help love blossom between the participants, Mei's company conducts free classes for Ukrainian women to introduce them to Chinese culture and learn how to converse in Mandarin.

READ ALSO

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

In comparison with Chinese women who have set high standards for an ideal spouse, Mei said that Ukrainian women marry more for love and less for money.

And this is turning out to be a lucrative business too.

Mei said in TV programme Maker China that his team of three at Culove has managed to rake in 6 million yuan (S$1.2 million) over the first six months of operation.

Barely a year after launching the dating service, Mei has already seen at least one imposter in China that is offering similar services online.

But judging by how lavish Culove's dates are, it seems like only successful Chinese bachelors will be able to find an attractive foreign bride.

Oh my God, I so remember this guy! So entrepreneurial! Grew up broke, didn't do well in school, by all definitions going nowhere and lands a lady fit to be a footballer's wife? Knew there was something inside him just waiting to be brought out to shine! I always said, everyone could be someone if he only found his niche in the world.

 

[Hendrik_2000]

Oh my God, I so remember this guy! So entrepreneurial! Grew up broke, didn't do well in school, by all definitions going nowhere and lands a lady fit to be a footballer's wife? Knew there was something inside him just waiting to be brought out to shine! I always said, everyone could be someone if he only found his niche in the world.

I guess he is not the exception Entrepreneur spirit come naturally to Chinese specially the southern one. I once read this book "Letter from Thailand" It chronicle the life of Chinese immigrant . Here the protagonist said "When the land is parched farmer become trader. When becoming trader is so hard because of oppressive rule we migrate to find a better life" that show the flexibility and determination to better oneself Like this guy.

He is not a bad person I am not sure who is luckier. Let face it the Girl got a reliable provider who can provide her with good life and treat her fairly. He does not drink or beat his wife. He loves his family. Here he spoke about himself. Beauty is fleeting in another 10 year it is all gone She make good decision