Chinese Economics Thread

[Hendrik_2000]

China is no more country of cheap labor. all those screw and assembled job are leaving about time. Japanese factory that depend on cheap labors are gone I say good riddance. It was good while it last . Sayonara!

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Wage Hikes in China Bring Jobs, Factories Back to Japan
Southeast Asia is in focus for Japanese off-shoring
By
Yoshiaki Nohara
August 22, 2017, 4:00 PM EDT
From
While there is no end in sight to off-shoring by Japanese companies, signs are emerging that surging wages in China are encouraging at least some of them to bring jobs, factories and businesses back home.

According to an annual

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of about 3,000 firms by the Japan External Trade Organization, among those that had recently moved or planned to move operations across national borders, 8.5 percent came back to Japan from China. In the first reversal since Jetro began asking the question in 2006, there were fewer cases -- just 6.8 percent -- going to China from Japan, according to poll released in March.

"The biggest reason is rising wages in China, which is sending businesses to Southeast Asian nations like Vietnam, as well as back to Japan," said Yuichi Kodama, chief economist at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo. "This supports capital investment in Japan."

On top of the narrowing pay gap, the depreciation in the yen due to record monetary easing by the Bank of Japan is encouraging more companies to make things at home and export, said Yuji Shimanaka, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. The yen has weakened about 15 percent against the Chinese yuan since the start of 2013.

Jobs returning home adds to positive signs in the Japanese economy, which is in the middle of its longest period of expansion in more than a decade.

But the bigger picture is still one of Japanese companies moving or expanding production overseas as they seek cheap labor and growth markets, neither of which are available in aging Japan.

A record proportion of the goods made by Japan’s manufacturers were produced outside Japan in the first three months of this year.

"Companies continue to target places where they can find demand," said Kodama.


Asean, with its young and growing population, and expanding economies, has emerged as a favored destination for Japanese companies.

 

[AndrewS]

Retards. Chinese factory wages have been growing explosively by double digits for DECADES. Chinese wages have gone from cheaper than Africa to above some EU countries like Croatia.

If you want to see a country that has been raping her EU trade partners by keeping wage increases artifically low, Germany can look in a fucking mirror. But I wouldn't expect any such self-reflection from a state owned sinophobic propaganda mouthpiece like the DW.

Chinese manufacturing wages are now higher than Mexico for example.

 

[Equation]

Expect a mega-economy to emerge amid growing linkages in the Greater Bay Area, with a mind-boggling US$3.6 trillion in annual economic output from the region in a little more than a decade, according to new research.


The growth entails a near tripling of the region's current size, even as China's economy is set to cool, according Daniel Shih, director of research at Colliers, who notes that the Bay area had an annual economic output worth US$1.3 trillion in 2015.


"I think this could be achieved although the economic growth rate has been slowing down in China in recent years," Shih said.


China's Bay Area is the Next Big Thing, but where is it?


The research came after Chinese Premier

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announced a plan for the "development of a city cluster in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area" in March. The plan is part of China's urbanisation push, to have clusters leveraging the strength of first-tier cities to boost growth in less developed ones.

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[Figaro]

My prediction: the coming collapse of China’s Ponzi scheme economy
So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 12:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 1:03am
Jake Van Der Kamp

BANKING & FINANCE

Friends who have a greater interest than I do in reading the tea leaves in Beijing tell me that the emphasis in relations with Hong Kong from now on will be on one country rather than two systems.

I think this phrases things the wrong way. The one country bit was never in issue.
What they actually mean to say is that Beijing’s system of state command of the economy will become dominant and Hong Kong’s more freewheeling system will fade away.
I don’t think it will happen.
In my view human society is so dynamic that no command system can last long in charge of an economy. Attempts at this particular form of hubris inevitably end in either war or financial crisis. For the Soviet Union it was financial crisis. I think the same fate awaits Beijing.
Consider crude steel production, a test-tube example of how command economies get it wrong. In the mainland this stood in June at an all time monthly record of 73 million tonnes, five times the total production in all of Europe.

Steel was recently targeted for a reduction in capacity but then a regime of easy money intended to help the industry overcome a difficult period of contraction instead stimulated production.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses
It has happened across the mainland’s rust belt industries.
Why is so much steel needed?
Simple. It is needed to build more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways and bridges so that more ships can be built to carry more iron ore to more ports and thence along more rails and bridges to more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways ...
What we have here, in short, is a giant Ponzi scheme. In a Ponzi scheme you pay out the winnings of the first entrants with what others later pay into it.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses.
In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014’s.
Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.
They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.
Aluminium prices soar due to deeper cuts in capacity by China

You don’t see it right away. Any Ponzi scheme looks just fine as long as more people can be found to put their money in. But the end is inevitable and the longer it is delayed the more resounding the collapse.
It has so long been delayed in the mainland that, when the end finally comes, I believe more than half of the loans and advances of the financial system will prove irrecoverable, which would be very resounding indeed.
When will it happen?
I cannot tell you. No one has ever conducted so big a Ponzi scheme from so high a level of authority before. The closest comparison is the Soviet Union and its collapse was not only extraordinarily rapid but took the whole world by surprise.
I think the Chinese Communist Party is unlikely to survive this coming debacle although I do not think it will result in the break-up of China or replacement by a full democracy.
Political and economic affairs are more likely to resemble the Russian emergence from a command economy.
I am sure, however, that it will happen long before 2047. We will then make a less difficult transition to one country, one system across all of China, a system that will look more like present-day Hong Kong’s than present-day Beijing’s.

A garbage article posted by SCMP with so many inaccuracies ... but I want you guys' critique on this post ...

 

[Blitzo]

My prediction: the coming collapse of China’s Ponzi scheme economy
So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 12:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 1:03am
Jake Van Der Kamp

BANKING & FINANCE

Friends who have a greater interest than I do in reading the tea leaves in Beijing tell me that the emphasis in relations with Hong Kong from now on will be on one country rather than two systems.

I think this phrases things the wrong way. The one country bit was never in issue.
What they actually mean to say is that Beijing’s system of state command of the economy will become dominant and Hong Kong’s more freewheeling system will fade away.
I don’t think it will happen.
In my view human society is so dynamic that no command system can last long in charge of an economy. Attempts at this particular form of hubris inevitably end in either war or financial crisis. For the Soviet Union it was financial crisis. I think the same fate awaits Beijing.
Consider crude steel production, a test-tube example of how command economies get it wrong. In the mainland this stood in June at an all time monthly record of 73 million tonnes, five times the total production in all of Europe.

Steel was recently targeted for a reduction in capacity but then a regime of easy money intended to help the industry overcome a difficult period of contraction instead stimulated production.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses
It has happened across the mainland’s rust belt industries.
Why is so much steel needed?
Simple. It is needed to build more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways and bridges so that more ships can be built to carry more iron ore to more ports and thence along more rails and bridges to more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways ...
What we have here, in short, is a giant Ponzi scheme. In a Ponzi scheme you pay out the winnings of the first entrants with what others later pay into it.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses.
In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014’s.
Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.
They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.
Aluminium prices soar due to deeper cuts in capacity by China

You don’t see it right away. Any Ponzi scheme looks just fine as long as more people can be found to put their money in. But the end is inevitable and the longer it is delayed the more resounding the collapse.
It has so long been delayed in the mainland that, when the end finally comes, I believe more than half of the loans and advances of the financial system will prove irrecoverable, which would be very resounding indeed.
When will it happen?
I cannot tell you. No one has ever conducted so big a Ponzi scheme from so high a level of authority before. The closest comparison is the Soviet Union and its collapse was not only extraordinarily rapid but took the whole world by surprise.
I think the Chinese Communist Party is unlikely to survive this coming debacle although I do not think it will result in the break-up of China or replacement by a full democracy.
Political and economic affairs are more likely to resemble the Russian emergence from a command economy.
I am sure, however, that it will happen long before 2047. We will then make a less difficult transition to one country, one system across all of China, a system that will look more like present-day Hong Kong’s than present-day Beijing’s.

A garbage article posted by SCMP with so many inaccuracies ... but I want you guys' critique on this post ...

What's there to critique?

There are dozens of similar articles like this written and published every year, for the past decade and more, with one imminent cut off point after another, though this guy is really keeping his options open by putting 2047 as his deadline lol.


A better question is why should this guy be taken anymore seriously than the others?

 

[Hendrik_2000]

I am sure, however, that it will happen long before 2047. We will then make a less difficult transition to one country, one system across all of China, a system that will look more like present-day Hong Kong’s than present-day Beijing’s.

Anyone who can make 30 years must be either vodoo or clairvoyant . A lot of thing can happened in the intervening years. those dragon slayer were never right in the last 30 years
What make them right in the next 30 years?
They died first before they get right!

They always compare it with Soviet Union But soviet Union collapse not because of communism They collapse because unsustainable defense spending and non existence of private company.

By definition China is not communist country because the mean of production is less than 30% in the hand of government and decreasing with every year. The rest is in private ownership that grew by leap and bound. French is more of socialist state
China cannot let go SOE because doing so would result in pain of mass layoff and social instability so it has to be done gently

This holly than thou people never get it right in the Asian financial crisis their remedy is worst than the disease!
Country that follow their recipe implode and they one that didn't thrive

 

[N00813]

My prediction: the coming collapse of China’s Ponzi scheme economy
So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 12:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 1:03am
Jake Van Der Kamp
...( snip )

A garbage article posted by SCMP with so many inaccuracies ... but I want you guys' critique on this post ...

LOL.
I assume that van der Kamp has assumed that the banks that have financed these steel companies act exactly like Goldman Sachs and Citibank, and are totally not under any obligation from the authorities to keep social order. Remember, state-owned banks are essentially government departments -- they just have the extra option to get some money from sources other than tax income.

VDK's mistake here is not a rare one amongst the Western commentariat, but it seems they never learn. LOL. Eventually you end up with "surprises" like Trump's victory in the 2016 election, when the word on the street at the time was that the race was far closer than the media wrote (or wanted).

What will happen in a real emergency is either 1) a moratarium on debt repayment, i.e. the banks agree to delay asking for interest and repayments until the gov't says its OK and 2) haircut / debt forgiveness, or 3) both.
It's not only the banks that will eat this loss, though -- the steel companies (probably state-owned) will probably also have to sell assets, like (the technically private) Wanda Group selling their assets to Sunac.

 

[manqiangrexue]

My prediction: the coming collapse of China’s Ponzi scheme economy
So much production in industries like steel is based on demand for more production, but should that demand falter, the whole system could come crashing down
PUBLISHED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 12:00am
UPDATED : Sunday, 27 August, 2017, 1:03am
Jake Van Der Kamp

BANKING & FINANCE

Friends who have a greater interest than I do in reading the tea leaves in Beijing tell me that the emphasis in relations with Hong Kong from now on will be on one country rather than two systems.

I think this phrases things the wrong way. The one country bit was never in issue.
What they actually mean to say is that Beijing’s system of state command of the economy will become dominant and Hong Kong’s more freewheeling system will fade away.
I don’t think it will happen.
In my view human society is so dynamic that no command system can last long in charge of an economy. Attempts at this particular form of hubris inevitably end in either war or financial crisis. For the Soviet Union it was financial crisis. I think the same fate awaits Beijing.
Consider crude steel production, a test-tube example of how command economies get it wrong. In the mainland this stood in June at an all time monthly record of 73 million tonnes, five times the total production in all of Europe.

Steel was recently targeted for a reduction in capacity but then a regime of easy money intended to help the industry overcome a difficult period of contraction instead stimulated production.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses
It has happened across the mainland’s rust belt industries.
Why is so much steel needed?
Simple. It is needed to build more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways and bridges so that more ships can be built to carry more iron ore to more ports and thence along more rails and bridges to more steel mills so as to build more shipyards, ports, railways ...
What we have here, in short, is a giant Ponzi scheme. In a Ponzi scheme you pay out the winnings of the first entrants with what others later pay into it.
As long as it keeps growing everything is fine. When it stops growing it collapses.
In this case you justify production with demand based purely on more production. As long as you keep pushing production up everything looks fine. At its peak in 2014 China turned out 30 times more cement than the United States, and the latest production figures are only a smidgen less than 2014’s.
Command systems may be good at deciding where to direct economic effort in wartime but they are hopeless in peacetime at deciding when to stop and do something else.
They just keep going down the same old track and then what you get is economic cancer, uncontrollable growth.
Aluminium prices soar due to deeper cuts in capacity by China

You don’t see it right away. Any Ponzi scheme looks just fine as long as more people can be found to put their money in. But the end is inevitable and the longer it is delayed the more resounding the collapse.
It has so long been delayed in the mainland that, when the end finally comes, I believe more than half of the loans and advances of the financial system will prove irrecoverable, which would be very resounding indeed.
When will it happen?
I cannot tell you. No one has ever conducted so big a Ponzi scheme from so high a level of authority before. The closest comparison is the Soviet Union and its collapse was not only extraordinarily rapid but took the whole world by surprise.
I think the Chinese Communist Party is unlikely to survive this coming debacle although I do not think it will result in the break-up of China or replacement by a full democracy.
Political and economic affairs are more likely to resemble the Russian emergence from a command economy.
I am sure, however, that it will happen long before 2047. We will then make a less difficult transition to one country, one system across all of China, a system that will look more like present-day Hong Kong’s than present-day Beijing’s.

A garbage article posted by SCMP with so many inaccuracies ... but I want you guys' critique on this post ...

Did Gordon Chang change his name legally or is this his new pen name? LOL

 

[tidalwave]

ho, ho, ho, what the heck is that?
Loongson CPU +kirin Linux system on official Guangdong government.
Getting rid of Intel/AMD Window system on the rise!

近日，在广东省和云浮市的支持下，基于龙芯3号系列处理器的终端/服务器及应用方案已经开始在云浮市政府机关、政务服务中心及有关县区陆续进行部署，该项目是广东省信息中心和广东省信息工程有限公司承担的 “核高基” 专项—— “基于国产CPU/OS的复杂办公环境示范应用” 课题的重要组成部分，首期终端部署规模为2000台，采用龙芯3A2000 CPU+ 中标麒麟V7.0操作系统 + 金山WPS办公套件，并集成了龙芯最新的火狐浏览器、FLASH插件等高性能API软件，初步构建了云浮市党政机关政务办公和公众政务服务的国产化办公应用环境，可以满足云浮市政府机关的日常办公需要及公众政务服务基本需求，是目前标志性的国产信息化应用，为安全可靠办公信息化的发展提供了宝贵的经验。

 

[Jura The idiot]

just a google translation of:

近日，在广东省和云浮市的支持下，基于龙芯3号系列处理器的终端/服务器及应用方案已经开始在云浮市政府机关、政务服务中心及有关县区陆续进行部署，该项目是广东省信息中心和广东省信息工程有限公司承担的 “核高基” 专项—— “基于国产CPU/OS的复杂办公环境示范应用” 课题的重要组成部分，首期终端部署规模为2000台，采用龙芯3A2000 CPU+ 中标麒麟V7.0操作系统 + 金山WPS办公套件，并集成了龙芯最新的火狐浏览器、FLASH插件等高性能API软件，初步构建了云浮市党政机关政务办公和公众政务服务的国产化办公应用环境，可以满足云浮市政府机关的日常办公需要及公众政务服务基本需求，是目前标志性的国产信息化应用，为安全可靠办公信息化的发展提供了宝贵的经验。

"Recently, in Guangdong Province and Yunfu City, the support, based on the Godson 3 series processor terminal / server and application program has begun in Yunfu city government agencies, government service centers and related counties have been deployed, the project is Guangdong Province Information Center and the Guangdong Provincial Information Engineering Co., Ltd. commitment to the "nuclear high base" special - "based on domestic CPU / OS complex office environment demonstration application" an important part of the project, the first phase of the terminal deployment of 2,000 units, using Godson 3A2000 CPU + winning unicorn unicorn V7.0 operating system + Jinshan WPS office suite, and integrated the Godson of the latest Firefox browser, FLASH plug-in and other high-performance API software, the initial construction of the Yunfu City party and government organs of government offices and public services of the localization of office Application environment, to meet the daily needs of the government offices in Yunfu City and the basic needs of public services, is the iconic domestic information technology applications for the development of safe and reliable office information provides a valuable experience."