Chinese Economics Thread

[plawolf]

He's already said he's from ROC but don't try to make sense of the stuff he writes. He makes no sense.

Yeah, everyone's out for their own interest; ROC wouldn't care if the US, Russia, China, anyone destroyed each other if it means ROC can get what it wants (independence? I dunno what most of them want and I have no idea why someone would want to be a country so small and unable to command respect that the Philippines dares sink their fishing ships). And Trump is really just trying to trade the ROC for a good deal from China. Sell the little trouble-makers for a shiny dollar; only problem is, they're trying to sell China's property to China so any price is inappropriate.

Trump's main problem is that he is totally ignorant of history. If he had any appreciation of history, he will know that bullyboy tactics is guaranteed to backfire against China. Even if the political leaders wanted to make a deal, the people will simply not stand for it.

He may actually have gotten a really sweet deal from China, trade wise, if he wanted to make a deal on Taiwan by offering China something concrete and valuable (like outlawing arms sale to Taiwan and/or repealing the Taiwan relations act etc).

However, he and every US administration before him only seems to want something for nothing when it comes to negotiations with China.

Rather than offer something in exchange for something, he is threatening to rip up his part of a deal struck decades ago if China doesn't give him something more now.

That's not trade or negotiation, but extortion, and China will not, and cannot accept that.

For someone so apt at manipulating nationalistic sentiment in Americans, he seems oddly blind to just how much his bullyboy antics stirs up Chinese nationalist sentiment.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Trump's main problem is that he is totally ignorant of history. If he had any appreciation of history, he will know that bullyboy tactics is guaranteed to backfire against China. Even if the political leaders wanted to make a deal, the people will simply not stand for it.

He may actually have gotten a really sweet deal from China, trade wise, if he wanted to make a deal on Taiwan by offering China something concrete and valuable (like outlawing arms sale to Taiwan and/or repealing the Taiwan relations act etc).

However, he and every US administration before him only seems to want something for nothing when it comes to negotiations with China.

Rather than offer something in exchange for something, he is threatening to rip up his part of a deal struck decades ago if China doesn't give him something more now.

That's not trade or negotiation, but extortion, and China will not, and cannot accept that.

For someone so apt at manipulating nationalistic sentiment in Americans, he seems oddly blind to just how much his bullyboy antics stirs up Chinese nationalist sentiment.

Trump is not at all good at making deals; he's good at rallying and lying to angry white men! He couldn't even make deals with A-list performers after offering them premium prices to perform for his inauguration. Someone who's good at making deals doesn't publicly tell people how he's going to get himself (or his country) better deals at the expense of others because that immediately triggers defensive sentiment in other countries as they know he's out to get them sour deals to prove himself to his people.

 

[Ultra]

Why are you so dramatic all the time? Get nukes to blow yourself up to prevent invasion, once COMAC makes good planes Airbus and Boeing won't sell a single one, China build-up more than 7,000 nukes to counter Trump, what's up with you and all this crazy shiet every time you post? I bet you none of that's gonna happen. Some leaders will talk, maybe some unpleasant conversations, but in the end, I'll bet you get just a bit more or less of the same thing. Probably there will be some (non-catastrophic) loss of trust in the US among the international community which will last 4-8 years until someone sane once again assumes the US presidency. (Military conflict against Russia? Are you kidding me?)

Brain drain is already happening, market instability and stagnation is coming real soon.
Military conflict is almost certain under Trump.

The only question you have to ask yourself is ....
How much do you wanna bet?

 

[montyp165]

Deal with trolls the way they deserve to be treated, and nothing else.

 

[Ultra]

Now you are revealing yourself what you are. You are the one who want to see U.S. and China to clash to certain death. Also from the notion that you pit China against not only US, but also Japan, Russia and India, I am sure you want China to collapse, but you are willing to sacrifise US first as the only able one. That tells everybody here that you hate China the first, US the second, so much so that you want both dead tomorrow.

I have two suspected places where you may be from. No, it is not suspicion, it is certain. Unfortunately for you, none of the two worth the breathes of U.S. or China so long as they two keep their heads clear which is a given.

Edit: I forgot your "nuke myself" proposal, that nailed where you are.

Reveal myself?
Sure, I am not as DELUSIONAL as some of you. I am in no way hope this will happen, but worse case scenerios are looking more than certain now under current circumstances. You are the one who is the sticking the head in the sand for refusing to see the reality.

The only question you going to ask yourself is, when it happens how many chinese are going to survive this?

 

[montyp165]

Reveal myself?
Sure, I am not as DELUSIONAL as some of you. I am in no way hope this will happen, but worse case scenerios are looking more than certain now under current circumstances. You are the one who is the sticking the head in the sand for refusing to see the reality.

The only question you going to ask yourself is, when it happens how many chinese are going to survive this?

Your ideological bias already shows quite clearly, given how much your own rhetoric resembles Trumps own ambiguous statements on intentions and actions.

 

[Equation]

Brain drain is already happening, market instability and stagnation is coming real soon.
Military conflict is almost certain under Trump.

The only question you have to ask yourself is ....
How much do you wanna bet?

The only thing draining for sure is ROC hope for independence as a separate nation. As they are losing whatever diminishing weak 3rd world allies they got left along with anyone (even the US) wouldn't want to risk their children's lives for someone else's self entitlement.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Brain drain is already happening, market instability and stagnation is coming real soon.
Military conflict is almost certain under Trump.

The only question you have to ask yourself is ....
How much do you wanna bet?

Brain drain goes both ways; there's no real measure for it, just like market instability. How unstable? How do you measure? Stagnation? How serious? For how long? You can have stagnation for a month before the government kicks in and fixes it. These are all weasel terms that are very common in all economies; it all depends on how much. You can write like Gordon Chang and make it sound like it's an impending apocalypse with all these things going on or you can put them to scale and say it's normal economic fluctuation.

BUT military conflict is not a weasel term (as we usually think of it). I would be willing to bet that the US and China will not get into any military conflict (firing warning shots doesn't count) with people being killed or ships being sunk (accidents like the 2001 Hainan incident don't count as military conflicts) under Trump. I could bet you that will not happen; loser closes his account on this forum. But let's make it shorter term. 4-8 year bets are not realistic. 1 year? That's when things are most rocky. If they don't happen in year 1, fat chance year 3 or 6 will do you any good. What do you say?

You also mentioned Chinese military conflict with Russia under Trump? LOL Can we bet our houses and bank accounts on that one?

 

[Equation]

Anyway, back to the real subject matter.

China’s fintech industry shows where the rest of the world is heading

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  about China’s fintech boom, with people entrusting US$1.8 trillion in 2015 to online finance services of all shapes and sizes.
  
  
  
  
  Data is for end of 2015.
  
  China’s overall fintech market is now worth up to US$2.2 trillion.
  
  By looking at China’s main fintech sectors, we can sketch a picture of how this will shape up around the rest of the world.
  
  Scan me: the surge in mobile payments
  China’s shoppers pay with their phones more so than people in any other country – a
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  , rising to an anticipated 332 million in 2020, says Emarketer. Leading the way are WeChat, the turbocharged messaging app from Tencent, and Alipay, the wallet app run by Jack Ma’s Ant Financial.
  
  Apple, Huawei, Samsung, and Xiaomi have their own wallet apps, but they have few functions in comparison to WeChat and Alipay. They’re all fighting over US$1.8 trillion in mobile payments, collectively accounting for 89.2 percent of the transactions in China’s fintech space, according to McKinsey.
  
  
  
  
  Alipay app shown after being used to pay for coffee.
  
  In China, mobile payments have proved to be a gateway drug for more hardcore fintech services, showing that getting people into wallet apps and giving them a real-world and convenient use case is the first and highest barrier.
  
  WeChat and Alipay have exploited this best, using the muscle of their tech titan parents – Tencent and Alibaba – to build an array of financial services into their apps, which are used daily by hundreds of millions of people.
  

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[manqiangrexue]

Reveal myself?
Sure, I am not as DELUSIONAL as some of you. I am in no way hope this will happen, but worse case scenerios are looking more than certain now under current circumstances. You are the one who is the sticking the head in the sand for refusing to see the reality.

The only question you going to ask yourself is, when it happens how many chinese are going to survive this?

You are easily the most delusional person here. Literally not even 1 person on here Chinese, American or any nationality agrees with you. If you think the Chinese are just not thinking straight, go ask Brat or Jeff and see what they think about your doomsday theories. Go ask Forbin; he's French. When you see everyone else driving on the road in the opposite direction of you, you need to have the sense to realize that you, not everyone else, are probably the one driving the wrong way.

You need to be clear on what you are saying. Are you saying that these are worst case scenarios? If so, then yes, they are and there are risks of them happening. Are you saying they are more "certain?" I think you mean more probable because there is no such thing as more or less certain. Something is either certain or not, and clearly, they are not. If you mean they are more probable under Trump, then yes again because he is much more of a loose cannon than any other recent US president. BUT to put things into perspective, "more probable" here represents something that had a 1% chance of happening under Obama going up to a 2 or 3% chance of happening under Trump. There are so many sane people in the white-house to check a crazy president from starting global nuclear war; I think you have the powers of the US president confused with those of an ancient emperor.

How many Chinese survive what? A nuclear war in your mind or some market fluctuations in reality?