Chinese Economics Thread

[SampanViking]

Of course the Chinese Bourses are booming, the Chinese economy continues to boom and at a time that every other major developed economy is in deep recession.

Where do you think that the global investors are parking their money these days:coffee:

 

[A.Man]

Do we really know the universe is closed or open?

Where is the end of China's expansion?

China is in defiant of the odds. China is rewriting the book.

 

[RedMercury]

Not surprising because the system that exists in China is novel. It may not suffer from the 'business cycles' which other economies enjoy.

 

[bladerunner]

Where is the end of China's expansion?

Well I have heard it said that China cannot grow at 8%+ annually indefinitely, because the resources it depends on, are finite.

China is in defiant of the odds. China is rewriting the book.

Perhaps it was more shovel ready than America was when they implemented the stimulus.

 

[crobato]

Well I have heard it said that China cannot grow at 8%+ annually indefinitely, because the resources it depends on, are finite.

No, it could, conditionally, if China shifts to a service economy in addition to a production economy.

 

[antiterror13]

A landmark has passed. China's market value now exceeds Japan.

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I thought China' market value is a lot bigger than Japan's since a while ago, about 50% bigger

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[bladerunner]

.......Even economists working for state-run Chinese economic think tanks are raising doubts about the government figures after it announced that industrial output rose 8.9 percent in May while electricity use fell 3.55 percent. "Actual industrial output probably grew less than five percent," said Wang Jian, secretary general of the China Society of Macroeconomics. "It appears that regional governments submitted inflated figures." Yuan Gangming, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said May's economic statistics were exaggerated, while actual industrial output is estimated to have grown zero percent.

[email protected] / Jul. 13, 2009 11:48 KST

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[Schumacher]

.......Even economists working for state-run Chinese economic think tanks are raising doubts about the government figures after it announced that industrial output rose 8.9 percent in May while electricity use fell 3.55 percent. "Actual industrial output probably grew less than five percent," said Wang Jian, secretary general of the China Society of Macroeconomics. "It appears that regional governments submitted inflated figures." Yuan Gangming, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, also said May's economic statistics were exaggerated, while actual industrial output is estimated to have grown zero percent.

[email protected] / Jul. 13, 2009 11:48 KST

On something as complex as economic measurements, no countries' are perfect. Those who say otherwise are lying or just not very smart.
That Chinese government's own researchers are vigilant to some inaccuracies especially from regional governments should actually increase confidence in the final overall figures.
I'd be more worried about some countries' figures who don't face any questioning or scrutiny from even their own researchers.

 

[crobato]

Read more by clicking on the links

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"HONG KONG (MarketWatch) -- China's foreign exchange reserves ballooned at a record pace in the second quarter to top the $2 trillion milestone for the first time, even as the nation's exports remained under pressure during the period because of weak global demand."

 

[crobato]

From Brad Setser's blog. Click to read more.

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"The second trillion though came remarkably fast. It took a few millennium for China to get its first $1 trillion in reserves (Ok, more like a decade … ). The second trillion took less than three years. Reserves topped $1 trillion in late 2006. They topped $2 trillion in April 2009."