Chinese Economics Thread
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45% tarrifs on Chinese and perhabs Mexican goods is just like his plan to build a wall on the Mexican border. Its not going to happen. And even if it does that would lead to massive price increases and shortages in stores in the US. China would increase tarrifs on US goods going the other way and the jobs he promises wouldn't materialize because those goods instead of coming from China will simply come from other countries. And Chinese goods will reach US shores anyway through third countries.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Another milestone is reached . China just inaugurated a new high speed line between Zhengzhou-Xuzhou therefore exceed the built line of high speed track above 20000 kilometer
It is remarkable drive when one considered that in 1949 China railline is only 20000 kilometer vs Indian railine of 54000 km. Fast forward China has increase the rail track to 110000 while the Indian increase their rail line to 60000 km according to this youtube
A new train line that makes cross-country trips faster has opened just in time for the end of the Mid-Autumn festival. The new high-speed train links Zhengzhou in central China's Henan Province with Xuzhou in the eastern Jiangsu Province. The 360-kilometer line has nine stations. It links two other major high-speed rail lines. They are the Beijing to Shanghai and Beijing to Guangzhou lines.
The newly-opened high-speed rail line connects two of China's key transportation hubs, namely Zhengzhou in Central China’s Henan Province, and Xuzhou in the eastern Jiangsu Province.
The trains can cover 300 kilometers every hour. The 400-kilometer trip from Zhengzhou to Xuzhou will now take only 90 minutes. This is twice as fast as before.
Every day, there are about 350 high speed trains arriving and departing from this station.The Zhengzhou East Station is China’s largest high speed railway hub.
On top of the existing rail network, the blue lines on this map in 2012, Zhengzhou became a strategic high-speed rail hub, connecting major cities in eight different directions.
North to Beijing, south to Wuhan and Guangzhou, west to Xi'an and east to Xuzhou. From here, you can go to the capital cities of neighboring provinces within two hours. The new Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high-speed rail line also links China's two most important north-south high-speed lines, Beijing to Shanghai and Beijing to Guangzhou. Now, passengers from China's central and western regions can get to eastern cities like Shanghai and Nanjing swifter than ever.
"Now that the Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high-speed railway is open, we have more than 100 newly-added trains departing from Zhengzhou to the Yangtze River Delta Region every day. This will basically satisfy the travel needs of passengers from Henan and the surrounding provinces," said Yang Yanming from Dep. Party Sec., Zhengzhou East Railway Station.
Zhang Chenhe is the chief conductor of the bullet train traveling between Zhengzhou and Shanghai. She says the new high-speed line will attract more passengers, especially during the three-day mid-autumn festival holiday.
"The top speed for our train was only 190 kilometers per hour on the old line. Now we can travel at a speed of 300 kilometers per hour. It only takes four hours from Zhengzhou to Shanghai, two hours fewer than before," said Zhang Chenhe from Zhengzhou-Shanghai High-Speed Train.
It's more convenient to travel on high-speed trains than planes. You can make it to the destination within four hours on trains.
The ride is very comfortable and convenient. I'll choose a high-speed train during the Spring Festival travel rush.
It took less than four-and-a-half years to complete this 362-kilometer line -- its cost was just under 48 billion yuan, or about 7.5 billion US dollars. The completion of the line takes the total length of China's high-speed rail network beyond the 20,000 kilometre mark.
"I've been a conductor for four years. I’ve seen the great development of China’s high-speed rail network. Now, passengers can get to many major cities in China by high-speed train," said Zhang Chenhe.
China expects to add another 10,000 kilometres of high-speed rail by 2020, integrating about four-fifths of the country's major cities into the network in the process. By 2025, it's total length should be about 38,000 kilometers -- just shy of the equator's total length. The investment in infrastructure will continue to have a positive impact on economic growth, while the more extensive network will also create more jobs.
It is remarkable drive when one considered that in 1949 China railline is only 20000 kilometer vs Indian railine of 54000 km. Fast forward China has increase the rail track to 110000 while the Indian increase their rail line to 60000 km according to this youtube
A new train line that makes cross-country trips faster has opened just in time for the end of the Mid-Autumn festival. The new high-speed train links Zhengzhou in central China's Henan Province with Xuzhou in the eastern Jiangsu Province. The 360-kilometer line has nine stations. It links two other major high-speed rail lines. They are the Beijing to Shanghai and Beijing to Guangzhou lines.
The newly-opened high-speed rail line connects two of China's key transportation hubs, namely Zhengzhou in Central China’s Henan Province, and Xuzhou in the eastern Jiangsu Province.
The trains can cover 300 kilometers every hour. The 400-kilometer trip from Zhengzhou to Xuzhou will now take only 90 minutes. This is twice as fast as before.
Every day, there are about 350 high speed trains arriving and departing from this station.The Zhengzhou East Station is China’s largest high speed railway hub.
On top of the existing rail network, the blue lines on this map in 2012, Zhengzhou became a strategic high-speed rail hub, connecting major cities in eight different directions.
North to Beijing, south to Wuhan and Guangzhou, west to Xi'an and east to Xuzhou. From here, you can go to the capital cities of neighboring provinces within two hours. The new Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high-speed rail line also links China's two most important north-south high-speed lines, Beijing to Shanghai and Beijing to Guangzhou. Now, passengers from China's central and western regions can get to eastern cities like Shanghai and Nanjing swifter than ever.
"Now that the Zhengzhou-Xuzhou high-speed railway is open, we have more than 100 newly-added trains departing from Zhengzhou to the Yangtze River Delta Region every day. This will basically satisfy the travel needs of passengers from Henan and the surrounding provinces," said Yang Yanming from Dep. Party Sec., Zhengzhou East Railway Station.
Zhang Chenhe is the chief conductor of the bullet train traveling between Zhengzhou and Shanghai. She says the new high-speed line will attract more passengers, especially during the three-day mid-autumn festival holiday.
"The top speed for our train was only 190 kilometers per hour on the old line. Now we can travel at a speed of 300 kilometers per hour. It only takes four hours from Zhengzhou to Shanghai, two hours fewer than before," said Zhang Chenhe from Zhengzhou-Shanghai High-Speed Train.
It's more convenient to travel on high-speed trains than planes. You can make it to the destination within four hours on trains.
The ride is very comfortable and convenient. I'll choose a high-speed train during the Spring Festival travel rush.
It took less than four-and-a-half years to complete this 362-kilometer line -- its cost was just under 48 billion yuan, or about 7.5 billion US dollars. The completion of the line takes the total length of China's high-speed rail network beyond the 20,000 kilometre mark.
"I've been a conductor for four years. I’ve seen the great development of China’s high-speed rail network. Now, passengers can get to many major cities in China by high-speed train," said Zhang Chenhe.
China expects to add another 10,000 kilometres of high-speed rail by 2020, integrating about four-fifths of the country's major cities into the network in the process. By 2025, it's total length should be about 38,000 kilometers -- just shy of the equator's total length. The investment in infrastructure will continue to have a positive impact on economic growth, while the more extensive network will also create more jobs.
election propaganda, not going to happen if he want to remain in the office for a second term.
Every U.S. presidents up to Obama taunted "money manipulator, unfair trading practice, linking "human right" with trade " etc. before they entered the oval office, then just back-stepped from those positions afterwards. Trump won't be able to get out of that circle because these words are false, following through these words will hurt not only China but US as well and as much as it hurts China if not more. It will be insane if any politician seriously believe what they are saying.
So, shrug off.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
election propaganda, not going to happen if he want to remain in the office for a second term.
Every U.S. presidents up to Obama taunted "money manipulator, unfair trading practice, linking "human right" with trade " etc. before they entered the oval office, then just back-stepped from those positions afterwards. Trump won't be able to get out of that circle because these words are false, following through these words will hurt not only China but US as well and as much as it hurts China if not more. It will be insane if any politician seriously believe what they are saying.
So, shrug off.
It's an article posted by a well known China hater, what did you expect?
Had a quick skim of the article, and it didn't surprise me one bit to turn out to be a piece of dross.
Looks like some journalist with strong agenda took a piece of academic thought exercise and tried to pass it off as a realistic assessment of the likely consequences if anyone was truly moronic enough to try actually implement that sort of obvious bare faced lie that Trump has trademarked.
China isn't some 3rd world banana republic the US can slap around for lolz with zero consequences.
For the US to impose that sort of stupid blanket tariff on Chinese goods will see a near-immediate and equally devastating Chinese economic retaliation that will be launched at the same time as a Chinese WTO complaint against America, which China will win hands down.
Such a move will undoubtably hurt China, but China can and will take steps to make sure America suffers just as much, if not more so.
Furthermore, such a massive trade war will drag the entire global economy down around the two combatants, so you will see pretty much the entire world suffer and not even the western media will be able to spin hard enough to convince any reasonable person it's not all Trump's America's doing.
Oh, and just to put a cherry on top, such a tariff will likely end up being mostly passed on to American consumers.
Chinese manufacturing outfits make razor thin profits as it is, it's the US megaCorps like Walmart, Apple and Amazon etc who pocket most of the profits from trade.
If they tried to pass on much of those new tariff costs to Chinese manufacturers, those manufacturers will either go out of business or simply refuse the contract and seek opportunities elsewhere.
Fat chance those megaCorps will take the hit out of their own pockets, so the only possible outcome is going to be greatly increased costs of Chinese goods for American consumers.
Exactly the point you say? Well far from it!
Problem is China is the factory of the world. Squeeze China out of the US market and no one else has anything like the capacity to step in and fill the volid.
As any high school economics student will tell you, when the supply of goods is massively constricted, prices jump up.
If Trump makes $100 Chinese goods $145, the Vietnamese, Mexican and other companies who were making similar products previously for $105 are not going to keep their goods still at $105. No, they are going to raise the price of their goods to maybe $140, because they know they will still have more orders than they can meet at that price, so why the hell not?
So, American consumers who can afford the price hit will find a huge portion of their average essential goods have suddenly become significantly more expensive so their disposable incomes will take a big hit, along with their spending power to buy those expensive luxury items that are more often made in the US, Europe or other developed economy, spreading the pain to those countries.
Those who cannot afford the new prices will suddenly find that they cannot make ends meet, which will cause tremendous human suffering and almost certainly a spike in crime, because if history has taught us one thing, it's that many good honest people will turn to crime before watching their own babies starve.
No, this is just another Trumpism like his much trumpeted Great Wall of Mexico.
It's a good sound bite to hook the poorly educated angry people, but make actually zero sense because what he is blaming isn't and has never been the real source of the problems, and his suggested advise will only make things significant worse with zero prospect of achieving any of the intended goals.
American voters really should be compelled to take a long hard, honest look at how Trump conducted his business.
The link below is a classic example of the way he operates
And this offers great insight into why he comes up with a lot of the BS idea that he does. Simply put, he was able to abuse the power his wealth granted him, and America's two-tier justice system where the rich and powerful get a overwhelming advantage, to bully small businesses he did business with, and get away with some frankly jaw-dropping stunts.
He has been able to get away with that sort of behaviour so consistently and for so long that I believe that's how he honestly think the world operates.
Up to a point he is correct, and the real ironic tragedy is that if he became president, he could and would almost certainly employ those same tactics he used against small businesses against small countries.
He will make ridiculous demands, and then see those demands met because his victims know that it would ultimately cost them more to stand up to him than to just capitulate.
The real danger will come if he tried that against a true heavyweight with backbone.
If Trump finds himself loosing the economics 'war', he would be real tempted to try using real wars to make up for it.
But that is getting sidetracked.
The point to all this is to lend some insight into Trump 'rationale' for saying what he says.
While objectively speaking, Trump's economic suggestions and ideas are full of holes and almost senseless, that does not necessary mean he won't go through with them anyways. Because he is likely to use extortion-like tactics alongside those stupid suggestions, which will carry so much threat that countries may well decide it's less damaging to just accept his demands even if they make no sense.
I can easily see him saying, 'Mexico, pay for that wall or we will send the US army in, annex 100km of Mexico and declare that a patriotic national security self defence zone. Anyone in that zone gets drone striked no questions asked'.
Faced with that sort of a choice, paying for the wall suddenly seems a lot more agreeable if you were in Mexico's shoes.
It has to be remembered that Trump knows how to use a carrot as well as a stick, and is smart enough to know which one to chose most of the time.
With China, he may say, 'give us these economic concessions and I will repeal the Taiwan relations act'. For that prize, I can see China being willing to pay almost any price. That will all be done behind closed doors of course, so Trump can publically sell that as him having faced up to the might Chinese dragon and won a glorious victory for America and the free world, democracy, Chrisitanity, gun rights and baby Jesus!
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Agree with everything else except this one. China was willing to pay in the past decades. But I don't think China is going to buy it this time. Concessions are always made by anyone, but one's might decides how much one is going to pay if paying at all, the more might, the less one pay. The whole thing about OBOR, RMB internationalization, AIIB etc. is to build a parallel world/market to offset the dependence on a single "partner". Xi has paid much much less concessions in every aspect that his predecessors did.
Not disagreeing with you fundamentally on this one, but I say this kind of card is less and less useful, soon they will be just "jokes" and laughs, just like the "red line" in the sand.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
Don't believe any of that nonsense from Trump that everything is one-sided.
"Currency manipulation" helps keep US corporations' profits up and costs down. Tariffs are paid by the importer not the country exporting. Apple will be paying the tariffs for iPhones shipped to the US from China. Changing these things increases US corporations' costs meaning less profits which will send US markets crashing. Panic explodes because of how American workers' retirement accounts are heavily invested into the stock market. Investors pull out to save what they have left. It does little to China because not a lot of actual Chinese companies sell their products in the US ergo tariffs have little impact. The US is only around 20% of China's foreign trade and most of that is foreign corporations that outsourced to China shipping their products to the US to sell to Americans. Those products will increase in price to payoff the tariff. Ending outsourcing to save American jobs only increases the price of American goods where foreign markets play an ever increasing importance. Foreign competitors, many of whom are US allies, that don't have to stop outsourcing will reap all the profits from global markets including the US because no one will be buying American goods, including Americans, that cost more paying American wages for labor. Maybe tariffs will be slapped onto them to stem the loss and then a trade war erupts between allies. China sits pretty because foreign corporations that outsource to China don't pay much hence why they outsource in the first place. They say countries outsourcing to China are facing higher costs because they can't find enough workers. That's because people are finding jobs that pay more than what outsourcers are willing to pay meaning China's workforce is not at all dependent on foreigners and the domestic economy gets ever stronger. China doesn't collapse from the US pulling their outsourced jobs from China. US corporations needing access to foreign markets because theirs is saturated start dying off because no one will buy high-priced American goods.
"Currency manipulation" helps keep US corporations' profits up and costs down. Tariffs are paid by the importer not the country exporting. Apple will be paying the tariffs for iPhones shipped to the US from China. Changing these things increases US corporations' costs meaning less profits which will send US markets crashing. Panic explodes because of how American workers' retirement accounts are heavily invested into the stock market. Investors pull out to save what they have left. It does little to China because not a lot of actual Chinese companies sell their products in the US ergo tariffs have little impact. The US is only around 20% of China's foreign trade and most of that is foreign corporations that outsourced to China shipping their products to the US to sell to Americans. Those products will increase in price to payoff the tariff. Ending outsourcing to save American jobs only increases the price of American goods where foreign markets play an ever increasing importance. Foreign competitors, many of whom are US allies, that don't have to stop outsourcing will reap all the profits from global markets including the US because no one will be buying American goods, including Americans, that cost more paying American wages for labor. Maybe tariffs will be slapped onto them to stem the loss and then a trade war erupts between allies. China sits pretty because foreign corporations that outsource to China don't pay much hence why they outsource in the first place. They say countries outsourcing to China are facing higher costs because they can't find enough workers. That's because people are finding jobs that pay more than what outsourcers are willing to pay meaning China's workforce is not at all dependent on foreigners and the domestic economy gets ever stronger. China doesn't collapse from the US pulling their outsourced jobs from China. US corporations needing access to foreign markets because theirs is saturated start dying off because no one will buy high-priced American goods.
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Skywatcher
Captain
45% tarriffs on Chinese and Mexican goods?
There will be riots across the entire country as every Best Buy, Target and Walmarts runs out of all the consumer goods (image Black Friday if all those shoppers decided to decide on the White House, National Mall and Capitol Hill in November 2017).
And riots by angry Boeing, Ford workers and soybean farmers who suddenly lost major export markets.
There will be riots across the entire country as every Best Buy, Target and Walmarts runs out of all the consumer goods (image Black Friday if all those shoppers decided to decide on the White House, National Mall and Capitol Hill in November 2017).
And riots by angry Boeing, Ford workers and soybean farmers who suddenly lost major export markets.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
Exactly No one can replace China when it come to consumer product. Because no one can produce these product at "China price" with reasonably quality at this scale
Just watch this video . Amazing talking about the benefit of scale . This Humongous factory the size of Monaco can churned out electric grill, coffee maker and ironing board by the zillion.
The factory is located in Xiamen Fujian province. It used to be called Amoy. A mountainous region cut off from the rest of China by jungle and mountain.The soil in this area is poor so million are fleeing poverty and immigrate to Taiwan and South East Asia
Ironically the descendants are now coming back and built factory and make China the factory of the world and export power house
This factory is the size of Monaco and has 17000 worker . Not only that by they are highly efficient, flexible and can switch production on the dime Mind boggling
Just watch this video . Amazing talking about the benefit of scale . This Humongous factory the size of Monaco can churned out electric grill, coffee maker and ironing board by the zillion.
The factory is located in Xiamen Fujian province. It used to be called Amoy. A mountainous region cut off from the rest of China by jungle and mountain.The soil in this area is poor so million are fleeing poverty and immigrate to Taiwan and South East Asia
Ironically the descendants are now coming back and built factory and make China the factory of the world and export power house
This factory is the size of Monaco and has 17000 worker . Not only that by they are highly efficient, flexible and can switch production on the dime Mind boggling
duncanidaho
Junior Member
I think it's not wise, not to observe and follow siegecrossbow's instructions.