The key word here is "may". So no decision has been taken yet. This is a bad idea. Metrolines are extremely expensive and small cities like that may not have the economic carrying capacity to make such a system profitable. Far better just to quicken the expansion of existing lines in the bigger cities.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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solarz
Brigadier
If we look at China's infrastructure building, we see a clear pattern: to redistribute population from crowded metropolises and remote villages and put them into smaller cities. The HSR and the property boom (so-called "ghost cities") are all indicative of this purpose.
Metrolines are extremely useful for developing a city. They enable rapid, high volume, congestion-free transportation in the heart of a metropolis. Everyone wants to live near a metro station, because it's just so incredibly convenient.
It doesn't matter that those cities are small now, the idea is to make them bigger with the metro systems. Profitability is not the purpose.
At the moment, China is still 50% urban, so there are still 600million people to move into the cities.
But many of the existing cities are already too big, too crowded and too expensive. Just look at Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen.
If I extrapolate the European experience and overlay this on China's land area and population density - 100 cities with subway systems looks reasonable.
Almost every metro/subway system in the world is unprofitable on its own - so what matters is the overall economic benefit of improved productivity from having a bigger city.
And yes, the HSR network is designed to improve communication and facilitate the transfer of growth to the poorer interior
But many of the existing cities are already too big, too crowded and too expensive. Just look at Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen.
If I extrapolate the European experience and overlay this on China's land area and population density - 100 cities with subway systems looks reasonable.
Almost every metro/subway system in the world is unprofitable on its own - so what matters is the overall economic benefit of improved productivity from having a bigger city.
And yes, the HSR network is designed to improve communication and facilitate the transfer of growth to the poorer interior
Whilst these improvements in infrastructure are much needed - this will only get the inland provinces to middle-income status.
The next step will be to raise R&D spending levels in those poorer interior province from the current low levels - to a level which is appropriate to their populations.
The Kunming, Nanning and Guiyang triangle is amongst the poorest places in China - yet it has a high level of environmental biodiversity given the prevalence of rainforest and jungle - unlike the rest of China. So it looks like a logical location for a critical mass of medical/pharma research institutes that will spawn future biotech companies.
Henan Province has 94million people, yet is very under-industrialised and is still very poor/cheap. But it is now crossed by the Beijing-Guangzhou HSR and the Xi'An-Shanghai HSR trunklines. It is also now only 500km from the coast on modern freeways, which is the limit of an affordable day-return journey for a truck.
And Zhengzhou city certainly looks like it has the size and educational institutions to support a mutually supporting creativity cluster of research institutions and companies.
As a comparison, we can see that Sichuan used to send out so many migrants to Guangzhou. Yet the development of Chengdu into a mini-Shenzhen has helped to raise incomes locally and allow people to live closer to their friends and family, whilst still being a lot cheaper than Guangzhou.
The next step will be to raise R&D spending levels in those poorer interior province from the current low levels - to a level which is appropriate to their populations.
The Kunming, Nanning and Guiyang triangle is amongst the poorest places in China - yet it has a high level of environmental biodiversity given the prevalence of rainforest and jungle - unlike the rest of China. So it looks like a logical location for a critical mass of medical/pharma research institutes that will spawn future biotech companies.
Henan Province has 94million people, yet is very under-industrialised and is still very poor/cheap. But it is now crossed by the Beijing-Guangzhou HSR and the Xi'An-Shanghai HSR trunklines. It is also now only 500km from the coast on modern freeways, which is the limit of an affordable day-return journey for a truck.
And Zhengzhou city certainly looks like it has the size and educational institutions to support a mutually supporting creativity cluster of research institutions and companies.
As a comparison, we can see that Sichuan used to send out so many migrants to Guangzhou. Yet the development of Chengdu into a mini-Shenzhen has helped to raise incomes locally and allow people to live closer to their friends and family, whilst still being a lot cheaper than Guangzhou.
Equation
Lieutenant General
It's also has to do with the make up of the terrain. Is it more mountainous or flat? The more mountainous a terrain is the more expensive in cost in engineering, man power, and materials it takes to build those infrastructures as well regardless of the population density.
The population density across the core of mainland China is very high - irrespective of the terrain.
In flat terrain, there is a very high population density. In mountainous terrain, there is a lower population density - but this is more concentrated because of the mountains. So irrespective of terrain, these population centres will end up needing a dedicated passenger railway line.
I see it very much as a chicken and egg situation. Business won't voluntarily locate or grow unless there is good connectivity, but a railway depends very high traffic volumes to make it viable.
In flat terrain, there is a very high population density. In mountainous terrain, there is a lower population density - but this is more concentrated because of the mountains. So irrespective of terrain, these population centres will end up needing a dedicated passenger railway line.
I see it very much as a chicken and egg situation. Business won't voluntarily locate or grow unless there is good connectivity, but a railway depends very high traffic volumes to make it viable.
Jura The idiot
General
What is the relevancy of this article to economics? You should start a new thread perhaps.
I disagree projects have to be financially viable or the country will be burdened by it. And growing smaller towns in response to urbanization is neither economically efficient nor environmentally sound. It doesn't have to be all Beijing, Shanghai or Shenzhen. But to have several large mega cities will be the best solution for China.