Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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Equation
Lieutenant General
It's dead, I can't open it.
Equation
Lieutenant General
And you still failed to prove me wrong by showing me how the CPC is wrong.
solarz
Brigadier
Looks like Brumby knows as much about how the internet works as he knows about how China works, LOL
Actually what I said was "it may be worth considering if this may be true" -- i.e.: the latter part of my suggestion is most important as it helps instill doubt into what you would've been about to say.
But rather, your actual post starts off only with "Before you pop the champagne it might be worthwhile considering a different read into the numbers," which as I described, it is used in such a way so as to simply present an alternate view to equation's post. "Might be worth" is not really the key part of my suggestion, as its use in this context is effectively a "hey let's look at this" role, rather than instilling doubt which should be something like "this lacks evidence and might not be true".
Furthermore, I also then said that it is the lack of doubt about your claims, lack of acknowledgement about the lack of evidence about your claims, and the overall confident nature of your claims and reasoning in the face of a lack of evidence, which would make a reader infer that you believed your claims were fact.
It seems like in all your replies to me you have not acknowledged this above bulk of my position.
I think at this point I've made a pretty convincing case and answer to your question as to how your post would've come across as you believing/portraying your claims as facts. I'm not sure why you're still unwilling to acknowledge this.
Okay, now that it seems this previous discussion has finally reached a conclusion, let's try to continue back to posting articles relevant to the Chinese economy.
This is one which I think does a good job of cautioning readers about why not to buy in the hype of China (both negative and positive) too much, and to think about what various statistics actually mean.
Why China's Economy Is Not Headed for Imminent Collapse
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- There has been a deluge of economic data from China. Most people don't have the luxury of time to cut through the media hype and make up their own minds about what these economic indicators mean. When navigating the maze of data and signals on the Chinese economy, it is advisable to bear in mind four key points.
1. Short-term indicators do not necessarily reflect the strength of long-term economic fundamentals.
The short-term prospects for the Chinese economy are very cloudy, but the long-term economic fundamentals are strong. Beijing's long-term aim is to transform the Chinese economy from one driven by investment and export to one driven primarily by innovation and domestic consumption. Most key indicators -- from spending on research and development, to the number of patents, to consumer spending -- are pointing in the right direction.
You should not ignore short-term indicators; they help us get a feel of how the economy is performing and evaluate the effectiveness of a government's economic policy. At the same time, however, you should not confuse short term bright spots, setbacks and challenges with the structural strengths and weaknesses of the economy.
It is inevitable that the Chinese economy slows down during the rebalancing process. The transition to the new economic model is bumpy and challenging, but the doomsday scenario of an economic crash in China is unlikely. The government is moving cautiously toward a balanced, more sustainable growth model, underpinned by consumption rather than excessive investment.
2. The short term is unpredictable.
We are overwhelmed with the constant deluge of data coming out of China, and because of the importance of the Chinese economy, every economic datum is put under the magnifying glass and often described in heightened language. In the short term, there is simply no way of knowing with a degree of certainty how the Chinese economy is doing or how it will respond to the various stimuli and incentives being introduced. This explains the current cacophony of views about the state of the Chinese economy. Every time positive figures are released -- and prove the doom-mongers wrong again -- counter indicators come out to disprove the positive ones, thereby thickening the fog of fear over the state of the Chinese economy.
3. Different indicators track different aspects of the economy.
Every time you read about a newly released economic indicator about the Chinese economy, you should stop and ask: What is it? What does it cover (what is included in the data)? And what is its significance to the Chinese economy? Take for instance the latest Caixin Media/Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index. The figures showed that Chinese manufacturing is still contracting. Not surprisingly, analysts picked on the reported contraction figures to suggest that the economy is losing steam and painted a gloomy outlook for the economy. But this should have been juxtaposed against the government's official manufacturing PMI released the same day, which painted a more positive picture. The official PMI showed that while manufacturing is still contracting (a reading of less than 50 indicates economic contraction), it moved up to 49.8 in September from 49.7 in August. Actually, you expect the official manufacturing purchasing managers' figures to paint a better picture than those released by Caixin. Not because the former is official and the latter is independent, but because the PMI index tracks large state-owned enterprises, which are benefiting from a significant government stimulus and investment in infrastructure, while Caixin tracks small and medium-sized enterprises' activities, which are struggling.
4. The real economy is different.
The Chinese economy is different from a typical Western economy. Reports on the Chinese economy are littered with warnings about the housing bubble, rising debt and stock market crashes, to mention a few. But although these warnings are well founded, they do not always reflect what's going on in the rest of the Chinese economy. Take the stock market for instance, which went up 150% before it went down by about 40%, sending shockwaves across financial markets. It is actually less significant to the real Chinese economy than many analysts seem to suggest. It represents only a small portion of firms' capital funding, about 60% of which is held by the government. The real economy is still doing OK: Unemployment is holding steady at about 6%, wage growth is rising at about 10% annually, consumption expenditures are growing and the service sector is picking up, albeit slowly, to rectify the effects of a contracting manufacturing sector.
So when the next piece of Chinese economic data comes out and is accompanied by lurid headlines about the country's imminent collapse, pause, take a deep breath, and reread these four points. It is probably not as bad as it sounds.
This is one which I think does a good job of cautioning readers about why not to buy in the hype of China (both negative and positive) too much, and to think about what various statistics actually mean.
Why China's Economy Is Not Headed for Imminent Collapse
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- There has been a deluge of economic data from China. Most people don't have the luxury of time to cut through the media hype and make up their own minds about what these economic indicators mean. When navigating the maze of data and signals on the Chinese economy, it is advisable to bear in mind four key points.
1. Short-term indicators do not necessarily reflect the strength of long-term economic fundamentals.
The short-term prospects for the Chinese economy are very cloudy, but the long-term economic fundamentals are strong. Beijing's long-term aim is to transform the Chinese economy from one driven by investment and export to one driven primarily by innovation and domestic consumption. Most key indicators -- from spending on research and development, to the number of patents, to consumer spending -- are pointing in the right direction.
You should not ignore short-term indicators; they help us get a feel of how the economy is performing and evaluate the effectiveness of a government's economic policy. At the same time, however, you should not confuse short term bright spots, setbacks and challenges with the structural strengths and weaknesses of the economy.
It is inevitable that the Chinese economy slows down during the rebalancing process. The transition to the new economic model is bumpy and challenging, but the doomsday scenario of an economic crash in China is unlikely. The government is moving cautiously toward a balanced, more sustainable growth model, underpinned by consumption rather than excessive investment.
2. The short term is unpredictable.
We are overwhelmed with the constant deluge of data coming out of China, and because of the importance of the Chinese economy, every economic datum is put under the magnifying glass and often described in heightened language. In the short term, there is simply no way of knowing with a degree of certainty how the Chinese economy is doing or how it will respond to the various stimuli and incentives being introduced. This explains the current cacophony of views about the state of the Chinese economy. Every time positive figures are released -- and prove the doom-mongers wrong again -- counter indicators come out to disprove the positive ones, thereby thickening the fog of fear over the state of the Chinese economy.
3. Different indicators track different aspects of the economy.
Every time you read about a newly released economic indicator about the Chinese economy, you should stop and ask: What is it? What does it cover (what is included in the data)? And what is its significance to the Chinese economy? Take for instance the latest Caixin Media/Markit Economics Purchasing Managers' Index. The figures showed that Chinese manufacturing is still contracting. Not surprisingly, analysts picked on the reported contraction figures to suggest that the economy is losing steam and painted a gloomy outlook for the economy. But this should have been juxtaposed against the government's official manufacturing PMI released the same day, which painted a more positive picture. The official PMI showed that while manufacturing is still contracting (a reading of less than 50 indicates economic contraction), it moved up to 49.8 in September from 49.7 in August. Actually, you expect the official manufacturing purchasing managers' figures to paint a better picture than those released by Caixin. Not because the former is official and the latter is independent, but because the PMI index tracks large state-owned enterprises, which are benefiting from a significant government stimulus and investment in infrastructure, while Caixin tracks small and medium-sized enterprises' activities, which are struggling.
4. The real economy is different.
The Chinese economy is different from a typical Western economy. Reports on the Chinese economy are littered with warnings about the housing bubble, rising debt and stock market crashes, to mention a few. But although these warnings are well founded, they do not always reflect what's going on in the rest of the Chinese economy. Take the stock market for instance, which went up 150% before it went down by about 40%, sending shockwaves across financial markets. It is actually less significant to the real Chinese economy than many analysts seem to suggest. It represents only a small portion of firms' capital funding, about 60% of which is held by the government. The real economy is still doing OK: Unemployment is holding steady at about 6%, wage growth is rising at about 10% annually, consumption expenditures are growing and the service sector is picking up, albeit slowly, to rectify the effects of a contracting manufacturing sector.
So when the next piece of Chinese economic data comes out and is accompanied by lurid headlines about the country's imminent collapse, pause, take a deep breath, and reread these four points. It is probably not as bad as it sounds.
2015-10-16 09:27 | Xinhua | Editor: Mo Hong'e
Authorities in northeast China's Liaoning Province on Thursday opened a trade zone with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
The Guomenwan trade zone in the city of Dandong covers an area of 40,000 square meters and involves an investment of 1 billion yuan (158 million U.S. dollars).
Residents living within 20 km of the border will be able to exchange commodities at the marketplace with people from the DPRK and enjoy a duty-free policy if spending less than 8,000 yuan (1,260 U.S. dollars) per day.
"This will be an open trade platform," said Chen Quantong, chairman of China All Access (Holdings) Ltd, operator of the trade zone.
Chen said apart from buying in the brick-and-mortar stores in the zone, consumers can also make purchases on its e-commerce platform.
Tang Shenfei, deputy director of Liaoning provincial bureau of foreign trade and economic cooperation, said the zone will help boost the border trade and increase incomes of both Chinese and DPRK people.
Dandong is the key hub for trade, investment and tourism between China and the DPRK. There are more than 600 border trade enterprises in the city, and trade with the DPRK accounts for 40 percent of the city's total trade turnover.