Chinese Economics Thread

Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
All discussions regarding US vs China gender equality and other branch items on the economics thread have been deleted.

A couple of members tried to warn those engaging in this ridiculousness, but to no avail. I thank those for trying to self moderate...that is what should happen.

Tcontra2, you started this OT material, not long after I reopened the thread and said to keep it on topic. You then continued an argument with Blackstone. You have been here long enough to know better. You are receiving a two week suspension.

Assinsmance, you immediately jumped into the fray and argued with Blackstone, whom it is clear over they years that you have an issue with. I would suggest you simply put him on your ignore list. But you took his relatively benign initial response and turned it to a full fledged argument that has derailed the entire thread. You have been here a long time. You too are receiving a two week suspension.

Blackstone, you took up the OT conversation and continued argueing with TC and AM, even though you knew it was OT. You also clearly have an issues with AM. I suggest you put him on your ignore list. You too have been here a long time. Since you did not start the OT, you will receive a one week suspsension.

You three, DO NOT POST ON SD for the proscribed periods. If you do, you will be immediately warned once, and if you do again, you will be permanently banned.

The thread will remain open to see if these moderations address the issue. but if it goes off rail like this again, it will be closed permanently.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.

WalkingTall3.jpg
 
Jeff Head

Jeff Head

General
Registered Member
Blackstone said:
Daniel Rosen is a China economy expert ...
Click to expand...
Blackstone, you were suspended for a week. Read the Moderation above your post.

With the current software in the new forum, we cannot do partial suspensions. So you HAVE to not post yourself.

This is a warning. Do not post after such a suspension. You (and others) will be warned if you do...but if you keep doing so, you will be banned.

DO NOT RESPOND TO THIS MODERATION.
 
Miragedriver

Miragedriver

Brigadier
Low Oil Prices And China Pull The Rug From Under Latin America
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

The world’s second largest economy is suddenly looking unstable, with economic growth slowing, the stock markets gyrating, and a surprise currency devaluation having taken worldwide markets by surprise. That could be bad news not just for China, but for a lot of countries that depend on exporting to China.

China’s phenomenal growth over the past two decades led to boom times for other countries as well. China is a voracious consumer of all sorts of commodities – oil, gas, coal, copper, iron ore, agricultural products, and more. For countries exporting these goods, the run up in commodity prices since the middle of the last decade has been extraordinary.

Nowhere is that more true than in Latin America. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Colombia have enjoyed strong economic growth rates because of China’s rapid expansion.

But the boom times are over. Latin America is getting hit with a double whammy: the collapse in commodity prices and the sudden economic turmoil in China.

Low oil prices are hurting Latin America’s exporters. Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex has already
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
for the year, cutting spending from $27.3 billion to $23.5 billion. Pemex has also borne the brunt of government spending cutbacks. And the much-anticipated first auction of Mexico’s offshore oil resources following a historic liberalization of its energy sector produced
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, as low oil prices scared away bidders.

Brazil has fared worse. Compounded by a colossal corruption scandal, Brazil’s Petrobras is drowning in debt as oil prices have plummeted. In late June, Petrobras
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
it would slash spending by one-third, divest itself of billions of dollars in assets, and it lowered its long-term oil production target to just 2.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2020, down from a previous target of 4 mb/d.

But no oil producer is in deeper trouble than Venezuela. The Maduro government
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
oil prices well over $100 per barrel for its budget to breakeven, and it was struggling even before the collapse in oil prices. Venezuela is suffering from the highest inflation in the world, a crime rate that could be the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the Americas, and ordinary people are struggling to find basic foodstuffs and household items.

Venezuela has stayed afloat with the help of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Chinese loans. The country has borrowed more than $37 billion from China, and pays back part of the loans with at least
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


However, things could get worse for Latin America. Already hit with falling commodity prices (especially oil), China’s sudden slowdown could further dampen Chinese demand for Latin American commodities. In fact, the slowing Chinese economy, the recent currency devaluation, along with the appreciating dollar (in part due to forthcoming interest rate increases), have all caused the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to fall this year. Colombia’s peso is off by 21 percent against the dollar so far this year, Brazil’s real is down by about one third, Chile’s peso has lost 12 percent, and Mexico has seen its peso fall by 10 percent.

For these countries, commodity exports represent a larger share of their economies than other countries, so China’s devaluation and the stock market plunge – which
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on August 18 – present real economic threats. “These headwinds have really concentrated on Latin American currencies,” Nick Verdi, a foreign-exchange strategist for Standard Chartered Bank, told the Wall Street Journal in an interview.

Still for much of Latin America, China’s problems will probably cause some economic headaches, but most countries can weather the storm without too much trouble. Venezuela, on the other hand, is facing a real crisis.

Venezuela’s GDP is expected to fall by 7 percent this year, and its foreign exchange has dropped to just $15.3 billion, a 12-year low,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Moody’s predicts there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Venezuela will default on its debt in 2016. Oil accounts for 95 percent of Venezuela’s export revenue, so the crushingly low prices are bleeding the government dry.

There are no easy choices for Maduro’s government, and short of a dramatic rebound in oil prices, which most analysts aren’t entertaining, Venezuela’s economy is in for a rough ride over the next year.


Back to bottling my Grenache
 
b787

b787

Captain
Miragedriver said:
Low Oil Prices And China Pull The Rug From Under Latin America
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com

The world’s second largest economy is suddenly looking unstable, with economic growth slowing, the stock markets gyrating, and a surprise currency devaluation having taken worldwide markets by surprise. That could be bad news not just for China, but for a lot of countries that depend on exporting to China.

China’s phenomenal growth over the past two decades led to boom times for other countries as well. China is a voracious consumer of all sorts of commodities – oil, gas, coal, copper, iron ore, agricultural products, and more. For countries exporting these goods, the run up in commodity prices since the middle of the last decade has been extraordinary.

Nowhere is that more true than in Latin America. Countries like Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, and Colombia have enjoyed strong economic growth rates because of China’s rapid expansion.

But the boom times are over. Latin America is getting hit with a double whammy: the collapse in commodity prices and the sudden economic turmoil in China.

Low oil prices are hurting Latin America’s exporters. Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex has already
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
for the year, cutting spending from $27.3 billion to $23.5 billion. Pemex has also borne the brunt of government spending cutbacks. And the much-anticipated first auction of Mexico’s offshore oil resources following a historic liberalization of its energy sector produced
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, as low oil prices scared away bidders.

Brazil has fared worse. Compounded by a colossal corruption scandal, Brazil’s Petrobras is drowning in debt as oil prices have plummeted. In late June, Petrobras
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
it would slash spending by one-third, divest itself of billions of dollars in assets, and it lowered its long-term oil production target to just 2.8 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2020, down from a previous target of 4 mb/d.

But no oil producer is in deeper trouble than Venezuela. The Maduro government
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
oil prices well over $100 per barrel for its budget to breakeven, and it was struggling even before the collapse in oil prices. Venezuela is suffering from the highest inflation in the world, a crime rate that could be the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
in the Americas, and ordinary people are struggling to find basic foodstuffs and household items.

Venezuela has stayed afloat with the help of
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
and Chinese loans. The country has borrowed more than $37 billion from China, and pays back part of the loans with at least
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


However, things could get worse for Latin America. Already hit with falling commodity prices (especially oil), China’s sudden slowdown could further dampen Chinese demand for Latin American commodities. In fact, the slowing Chinese economy, the recent currency devaluation, along with the appreciating dollar (in part due to forthcoming interest rate increases), have all caused the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
to fall this year. Colombia’s peso is off by 21 percent against the dollar so far this year, Brazil’s real is down by about one third, Chile’s peso has lost 12 percent, and Mexico has seen its peso fall by 10 percent.

For these countries, commodity exports represent a larger share of their economies than other countries, so China’s devaluation and the stock market plunge – which
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
on August 18 – present real economic threats. “These headwinds have really concentrated on Latin American currencies,” Nick Verdi, a foreign-exchange strategist for Standard Chartered Bank, told the Wall Street Journal in an interview.

Still for much of Latin America, China’s problems will probably cause some economic headaches, but most countries can weather the storm without too much trouble. Venezuela, on the other hand, is facing a real crisis.

Venezuela’s GDP is expected to fall by 7 percent this year, and its foreign exchange has dropped to just $15.3 billion, a 12-year low,
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
Moody’s predicts there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Venezuela will default on its debt in 2016. Oil accounts for 95 percent of Venezuela’s export revenue, so the crushingly low prices are bleeding the government dry.

There are no easy choices for Maduro’s government, and short of a dramatic rebound in oil prices, which most analysts aren’t entertaining, Venezuela’s economy is in for a rough ride over the next year.


Back to bottling my Grenache
Click to expand...
I think it is more south america, Mexico does not export too much commodities to China, Mexico has a much larger trade with the USA, the USA is the economy that affects much more Mexico, Mexico has not grown due to corruption rather than China
 
b787

b787

Captain
Equation said:
Whatever happen to NAFTA that's suppose to help Mexico's economy as well?
Click to expand...
without too much going off topic i can tell you that China exports more to the US even without FTA than Mexico, but the advantages NAFTA has are also offset by disadvantages add a corrupt government and you have one of the roots people go to the US as illegal immigrants, any way tis is off topic so open another thread or let us finish here
 
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
Last edited:
Jura The idiot

Jura The idiot

General
oops, I was informed
t2contra
was suspended; am saying this because I quoted him yesterday, as a part of the discussion started
Jun 28, 2015
with the CNBS article claiming "A bubble in Chinese stocks is bursting and the market is likely to halve in value from current levels", 4,528 figure inside, etc.:
https://www.sinodefenceforum.com/chinese-economics-thread.t3715/page-422#post-349255

anyway, yesterday at about the same time (of my lunch-break :)
Jura said:
...


right now I see 3217 there

...
Click to expand...

and now:
about 2965
 
Air Force Brat

Air Force Brat

Brigadier
Super Moderator
SamuraiBlue said:
Well if it's going to half from 4,528 we're near the bottom, I guess but am not holding my breath.
One thing for sure this is no adjustment stage unless you call bursting of the bubble as adjustment.
Click to expand...

Can you say affordable care act boys and girls, how about minimum wage increase? all part of the war on private sector business and the US economy. The US consumer has been hamstrung by our own recession, I lost my job in a private Hospice, when the US govt rewrote the medicare guidelines for Hospice and cut pay-outs for services provided by our Hospice. My small company "fired" 4 Chaplains in a year, as well as cut other important support staff.

All our economies are inter-twined, and we really ought to stick together? just a thought.
 
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