Higher oil prices have hit the Chinese hard. What else could be the explanation?
Chinese Economics Thread
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manqiangrexue
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China is very very insulated to this compared with Western economies not only from state management but also due to high EV penetration. General global economic downturn leads to sentiments favorable towards saving. With the EU leading the way in terms of shit economics and the US in tow, Chinese aren't going to be on a spending spree, and even then, it's still positive.
You want to get banned in this thread too?
I thought he was a Bloomberg "economist"
Something wrong? Massive fiscal stimulus!
No massive fiscal stimulus? We're doomed!
Youth unemployment take into account ages between 16 to 24. I don't know you but I think kids age 16-18 should be in school not grinding their future in factory, especially as China urbanize more and if you take into account that more of them are going to vocational schools and collage, youth unemployment should be lower.
You will likely to get ban.
A economy growth could not depend on an permanent asset-financial bubble propped up central bank cheap money creating fake inflation that is eating into people savings with housing prices so high that in 10 years young families would have to live in in expensive cartbox boxes. I think is a huge mistake that Western economies are doing. Is simple unsustainable. In order to people in the US to afford houses again prices have to fall way deeper and faster than China. The longer the bubble the more painful the correction has to be.
China policymakers realize that in the first housing bubble of 2014 when prices were going up pretty high that putting stimulus for keeping a bubble will only lead to a bigger bubble, as happen in 2016 and in 2018.
Propping up the bubble will lead to a more painful correction. So as long others sectors can keep up with the economy they could lead the property market to correct itself and they can stimulate in the future.
Interest all of these "free market economist" don't understand that.
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According to SCMP, cadre promotion KPIs are being modified to include residents' income growth as a KPI, and they are shifting away from using GDP as the primary KPI for performance evaluations. They are educating cadres about this in a 5 month campaign that started after Chinese New year ended, so it's still ongoing.
Frankly, I don't know how cadre performance assessment really works in China (if they get graded on a quarterly or annual basis like an employee in a corporate setting would get) but if they are taking these KPIs seriously then I expect they will try implementing or experimenting with policy changes before their next evaluation is done.
They need to print more money so that people can buy more stocks, especially new technology IPO. First step is to hike up the RMB, sell a ton of RMB bonds. As the rmb appreciates, foreign investors will be dragged into the Chinese financial markets, both stocks and bond markets. The local investors will have more confidence investing in a market that has a trend of going up.
its unbelievable what China has done.
Since mid-2025, Germany has been buying more capital goods from China than vice versa.
Since mid-2025, Germany has been buying more capital goods from China than vice versa.
wait wat, this is yoy, which is (value this year -value last year)/value last year
it dropped to 0.2 because value last year (april 2025) was very high and increase in this year wasnt as significant, not exactly a drop.
tf happend during april (edit: not may) 2025 to cause such a increase in consumption?
edit: researched a bit,
april 2025's increase was attributed to trade in policy, communication devices and house hold appliances had 30+% yoy (!!!)
at this point im more surprised that there can still be 0.2 yoy as that era was an outlier
source:
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