what matters is how old the population is. china gets old rapidly; fertility rate is getting close to 1. the number of workforce reduces, while the number of retirees increases.
Old way to think about things. Traditionally, workers in their 20's and 30's are the most productive because physical labor was the backbone of the economy. Now, professors/scientists/engineers in thier 50's and 60's are the most productive because the world is increasingly about science and technology.
Didn't world bank predict chinese population to be less than that of the usa by 2100? the chinese demographic problem is that the population ages rapidly with fertility rate close to 1.
1. Who takes 75 year predictions seriously?
2. As we all know, smaller technologically elite populations can be much stronger than larger less advanced populations; China and the US seem to be passing each other very quickly technologically but very slowing in population.
3. America's lead in tech is measured in months and years, not decades. 2100 is way too long for the US to hang onto.
4. What is America's population made of? Is it made of well-to-do scientists and engineers with high fertility or do those people exhibit low fertility with the high fertility rates seen in poor, lower class, crime-laden communities, the exact communities that burden a society and Trump wishes to remove?
how rapidly exports grow?
Read the article.
apparently, not fast enough to generate positive PMI. PMI has been negative for monts in china.
PMI hasn't been negative for months; it is mostly positive this year with negative spots.
And also, GDP rises strongly, indicating that China is shifting more towards high tech and services rather than bulk manufacturing. That is the mark of a country entering high income.
with fertility around 1 and downward trend continuing, 30s sound logical for the peak.
Just saying it's logical doesn't mean anything. I have shown why it is not logical but you failed to rebut:
"2030's doesn't even make sense; the first generation of low fertility people working thier hardest on thier careers, hyper-accelerating China's development at the expense of children will mostly be in their 40's. These are scientists, not physical laborers; scientists don't peak in their 40's, maybe in their 60's and up to their 80's sometimes. Don't get your hopes up."
the trend has been that chinese GDP/world_gdp increases, but in the 2030s it will likely decrease.
Who said it will decrease? There is faster growth and slower growth in China; this is not Europe where GDP contracts casually.
I didnt say china will collapse, I said it will likely peak at that time.
I know what you said and I said there is no logic except Western wishful thinking to a 2030's peak for China. Reread above.
