Chinese Economics Thread

Nevermore

Junior Member
Registered Member
Define reasonable though. When China’s industrial output is greater than that of G7 combined I think a few percent decline in shares is no big deal.
Yes, as China's economy focuses more on domestic demand, the proportion of manufacturing will be smaller in the future. So if we want to evaluate the changes in the scale of China's manufacturing industry, we should look at the proportion of China's manufacturing value added in the world.
 

dingyibvs

Senior Member

first half and June industrial production figures. people should be engaged by the continued growth in auto sector, robot sector, CNC, chemical industry and new energy industries.

Not sure how the industrial robots are counted, but I think the annual installation of industrial robots in China is only ~300k, which account for around 50% of the world total, but the chart states the production in 1H is at 369k. Either way, a 36% increase is massive. Domestic production already accounts for close to 50% of the domestic market, such gigantic increases in domestic production would ensure a complete domestic takeover of the industrial robot market within a few years and deal a crushing blow to the current world leader the Japanese. First autos, next industrial robots, the Japanese won't have any dominant manufacturing industry left.

Define reasonable though. When China’s industrial output is greater than that of G7 combined I think a few percent decline in shares is no big deal.

It depends. If AI and robotics continue to progress, and progress at an exponential rate like many new technology does, they may start to displace many of what used to be service jobs. The idea that a country can't rely on manufacturing for too long and must transition to services dominant economy (i.e. 70-80+% of GDP) is predicated on the assumption that eventually you'll have all the manufactured goods you need and the world won't be able/willing to absorb your excesses either. While that's almost certainly eventually going to come true, what if we're underestimating the "break even" point?

What if with revolutions in energy, AI, robotics, etc. that we discover so many more manufactured goods that we need to consume than we had thought would be possible in the next say 25 years? What if AI starts replacing some bureaucrats, financial analysts, lawyers, programmers, commercial artists, real estate agents etc., robots start replacing some nurses, waiters, plumbers, deliverymen etc.? Imagine all the inventions in the 20th century like cars, computers, internet, cellphones, etc. all come onto the market in a 25 year period instead of a 100 year period, how much longer can you rely on a manufacturing as a major component of your economy? How much would it eat into traditionally services jobs?
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not sure how the industrial robots are counted, but I think the annual installation of industrial robots in China is only ~300k, which account for around 50% of the world total, but the chart states the production in 1H is at 369k. Either way, a 36% increase is massive. Domestic production already accounts for close to 50% of the domestic market, such gigantic increases in domestic production would ensure a complete domestic takeover of the industrial robot market within a few years and deal a crushing blow to the current world leader the Japanese. First autos, next industrial robots, the Japanese won't have any dominant manufacturing industry left.
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Theres legal restrictions on what CRIA can report on
 

Wrought

Senior Member
Registered Member
BRI investment flows achieved record highs during H12025, with particular emphasis on African and Central Asian projects.

Key findings​

  • 2025 H1 saw the highest BRI engagement ever for any 6-month period, with USD 66.2 billion in construction contracts and about USD 57.1 billion in investments;
  • China’s energy-related engagement in 2025 was the highest in any period since the BRI’s inception, reaching USD 42 billion, an increase of 100 per cent compared to 2024 H1;
  • Oil and gas engagement surged to record highs of about USD44 billion, higher than in all of 2024, particularly through oil/gas processing facilities construction contracts in Nigeria (USD 20 billion);
  • Green energy engagement reached new records with USD 9.7 billion in wind, solar, and waste-to-energy projects and an installed capacity of about 11.9 GW of green energy;
  • China continued to invest in coal-related activities through various construction of coal mine infrastructure;
  • The metals and mining sector reached new records, surpassing the full year of 2024 (which itself was a record year) in the first 6 months of 2025 with about USD 24.9 billion—mostly through investments and in minerals processing (about USD 10 billion into mining);
  • The technology and manufacturing also broke records and reached almost USD 23.2 billion with high-tech engagements in solar PV, EV batteries and in hydrogen (in Nigeria);
  • Africa and Central Asia topped the rank of BRI engagement, reaching USD 39 and USD 25 billion, respectively (unseating the Middle East);
  • BRI investments in 2025 were driven by private sector companies, dominated by East Hope Group, Xinfa Group and Longi Green Energy;
  • Since its establishment in 2013, cumulative BRI engagement reached USD 1.308 trillion, with about USD 775 billion in construction contracts, and USD 533 billion in non-financial investments;
  • For the rest of 2025, we see stabilisation of Chinese BRI engagement with a focus on BRI engagement in renewable energy, mining and new technologies;
  • Global trade and investment volatility will potentially spur further investment for supply chain resilience and alternative export markets for Chinese companies;
  • Potential future engagements remain in six project types: manufacturing in new technologies (e.g., batteries), renewable energy, trade-enabling infrastructure (including pipelines, roads), ICT (e.g., data centres), resource-backed deals (e.g., mining, oil, gas), high visibility or strategic projects (e.g., railway, ports).

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horse

Colonel
Registered Member

I watched some other videos, discussing why Philippines remains a poor nation, relative to it neighbours. Going back decades.

There was a tendency to say the peso devalues constantly, and corruption, that this corruption part was total bs I thought.

That is what I always complain about, economics is not a morality story, that the reason why the nation stays poor is due to morality, ie corruption. That is bogus.

This is my guess why a nation in the global south stays poor.

1. Currency devalues, because automatically you're poorer.

2. Lack of knowledge or skills.

3. Lack of investment. Probably due to lack of the right people to hire.

4. People are second class citizens, who by definition get the short end of the stick, which makes them poor.

5. Second class citizens who are also exploited. Haha! Not funny but it is.

The video posted, Professor Hudson actually touches upon all the above, but not directly.

Development of industrial capitalism, we need certain conditions, but that could be in conflict to weathier nations in the West, so they regime change some hapless country to retain a rentier control over their economy. Often in cahoots with a compadre class.

Industrial capitalism allowed countries to increase their wage rate, thereby increasing the general welfare of the people. In essence, higher wages usually mean more productivity, which is good for the economy.

Blah blah blah, but you get some of the picture. Prof Hudson does not use the word exploitation, but he talks about it, the nuts and bolts.

:confused::cool:
 

chlosy

Junior Member
Registered Member
Wouldn't it be beneficial for China to-
Allow foreigners to buy condominium units? Limit one unit per person?
Issue retirement visas?
 
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