Chinese Economics Thread

supercat

Major
Number of coal power plants is not the construction rate of new power plants, it is the construction rate - decommissioning rate.
Also, the new coal-fired power plants, such as those ultra-supercritical ones, are much more efficient and less polluting than the old ones they replace.

Everything You Think You Know About Coal in China Is Wrong​

China’s new coal-fired power plants are cleaner than ours—and stronger on climate change.
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Actually, 2024 is the year of inflection for China's clean-energy sectors - they finally overtaken real estate as China's top growth driver.
Clean-energy technologies made up more than 10% of China’s economy in 2024 for the first time ever, with sales and investments worth 13.6tn yuan ($1.9tn).

Clean-energy sectors drove a quarter of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2024 and have overtaken real-estate sales in value.
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Chinese needs less US Treasuries and more gold and other precious metals. At its peak, China held more than a trillion US Treasuries.

China’s holdings of US Treasuries fall to lowest level since 2009​

Beijing has been seeking to hold US debt through lower-profile accounts and diversifying into other assets

The value of US sovereign debt held by Chinese investors fell by $57bn to $759bn in 2024, data published by the US Treasury on Tuesday showed.
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escobar

Brigadier
Even if overall economic growth remains comparatively weak and many Chinese firms continue to struggle, China's central and local governments will keep supporting high-tech industries and emerging stars like DeepSeek. Xi's priorities are clear, and fiscal constraints—especially for localities—are not yet strong enough to curtail support to high-tech firms. That means that Western policymakers shouldn't make the mistake of believing China is down and out, and they shouldn't be surprised when China continues to catch up or make breakthroughs in critical and emerging technologies.
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Lethe

Captain
A worrying trend -
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Trying to make sense of this, when clean energy is a focus for the govt.

The same website presents this case in more detail
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:

Even as electricity demand growth slowed down in October and November, fossil-fuel generation continued to increase. This was due to a sharp drop in the utilisation of solar and wind capacity, as shown by China Electricity Council data accessed through Wind Financial Terminal.

It is normal for utilisation to vary month-to-month, especially in the case of wind power, as wind conditions vary. The fall in utilisation of solar power was, however, the largest on record and, in the case of both solar and wind, this specific drop is not readily explained by weather conditions.

If the fall in utilisation was not caused by weather, the other possible cause is an increase in curtailment, or the amount of solar and wind power supply not fed into the power grid.

However, officially reported curtailment rates only increased marginally.

The apparent increase in unreported solar and wind curtailment in November is indicative of issues likely to arise in China’s electricity market as demand for coal-fired power begins to fall.

The government has pushed electricity buyers to enter into long-term contracts with coal-power companies, which involve guaranteed sales volumes. This has been a way to shore up profitability and enable investments in new coal-power capacity.

This now appears to be coming into conflict with clean-power growth and efforts to limit emissions.

When power generation from clean sources grows faster or total power demand grows slower than expected, electricity buyers with these long-term contracts can face penalties, unless they refuse power supply from clean sources and purchase from coal-power generators instead.

This conflict is accentuated when a lot of new coal-power capacity enters into the market. The new units have internal production targets and, at least in some cases, power purchase agreements signed in advance, making them unwilling to reduce output, even if there is no space in the grid.

If power demand growth slows down in 2025 and the expected record clean-energy additions are realised (see below), the conflict between coal and clean power could worsen. Demand for coal-fired power would be likely to fall, even as the coal industry expects rapid growth.

It would only be possible to ease this conflict by relaxing the government’s targets for long-term power contracts and accepting a fall in the utilisation of coal-power capacity.

China's current and announced investments in renewable energy are quite remarkable: the latest IEA
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estimate that China will be home to half of all renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030, with growth over the 2024-2030 period outpacing that of the EU (as the next-largest contributor) several times over. But if that prodigous capacity is significantly underutilised owing to long-term contracts with coal suppliers and coal-fired generators....
 
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SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Why no DJI? Maybe trying to distance the company from any blowback?
DJI has already been blacklisted for merely being a Chinese company.

It was probably due to the limited number of seats per region/sector for DJI not having been picked. Sure it was kind of an honour to be in that room but there are just too many significant private enterprises in China to be all included.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
DJI is already the global leader when to comes to consumer drones.. hold 70 percent market share.

what else you want ??

there are so many other important tech companies. you just cannot invite everyone.
I also think the focus might have been more on companies in up and growing sectors, not ones that dominate existing ones.

Also what I'm hoping now is that the government will partner with deepseek search to replace Baidu. There's insanely strong potential here, no other country has widely adapted AI/LLM powered search as their main search engine.
 

Serb

Junior Member
Registered Member






Only CIA-aligned Orwellian propagandists could twist the chart above into something negative for either China or the world. To me, it signals only strength and progress.

For China, the impact is obvious, it lifted over 800 million people out of poverty through that exact structure. For the world, the effects have also been overwhelmingly positive.

Many countries were able to partially use those inputs to set production in line with their own capabilities, benefiting from Chinese intermediate and capital goods, while consumers gained access to affordable, high-quality products that improved their quality of living.

Unlike the US, which sucks capital out through capital account surpluses, China reinvests its trade surpluses massively into partner nations, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road.

If concerns over Chinese economic dominance arise, China doesn't just strong-arm its way forward, it adapts where it needs. Take BYD as an example: when Turkey imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese EVs, the company responded by setting up local production instead.

This is the difference. Unlike the US, which prioritizes unilateral advantage, China thrives on genuine win-win cooperation because its strength and confidence come from within.

For example, this so-called "expert" probably framed it as China "stealing" jobs from the rest of the world, when in reality, if it wasn’t China, Germany, Japan, and South Korea would have likely taken those jobs instead.

The truth is, that modern manufacturing is so complex that most Global South countries simply lack the necessary infrastructure and technical expertise to compete. This outcome was inevitable.

But unlike others, China actively helps these nations adapt by investing in them, sending FDI, experts, know-how and building factories. Through its world-class state-backed civil engineering initiatives, it provides them the infrastructure they need to develop and participate in the future of global industry in some way.













Ignore the "slowdown" comment, this guy sometimes pushes pro-US nonsense (testified in the US Congress), but his charts are solid.

China's low shares in some of these categories aren’t due to a technological gap but because it is often the world's largest market for these goods.

Domestic demand takes priority, which naturally limits export volume.

For those claiming China has "peaked," take a good look at this chart.

The sheer potential for growth in high-value-added exports alone shows just how much more China's economy can grow in the future.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Reading stories like this makes me smile at all the crying from property developers and homeowners and especially investors. They are playing chicken with the government, and they just keep losing. They will all bleed to death, and the country will be better off for it.

To make the finances work, SOEs are offering prices at least 40% below market, say developers, adding they instantly reject the bids.
Even if starved for cash, developers have reason to hold their ground, analysts say. They expect Beijing will do anything it can to stabilise home prices at much higher levels than what SOEs currently offer, given the damaging implications a steep drop would have on the wider economy.

"If developers sell some buildings to the local government at a 50% discount, how would the homeowners in that area think about the future price of their homes?" said John Lam, head of Greater China property research at UBS Investment Bank.

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