Chinese Economics Thread

Miyayaya

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The Q3 economic data showed slightly stronger industrial output and consumption, but not exceeding expectations. PMI production improved month-on-month in September, and the replacement of old home appliances with new ones drove sales of 69 billion yuan, the bulk of which was in September, driving up retail sales by more than one percentage point.

The test will be in Q4. Even if we rush to export and pull exports back to 10% and retail sales return to above 5%, and linearly extrapolate industry and investment, the growth rate in Q4 will be 4.5-4.6%, and 4.7-4.8% for the whole year.

Therefore, the baseline forecast for the full year is 4.6-4.7%, and policies need to continue to be implemented.

 
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