Chinese Economics Thread

[supercat]

China hasn't completely tapped out the economic benefits of urbanization yet. Currently, only 48.3% of China's population has permanent urban residency.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828325267795800379

China's auto industry:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1827732453911626203

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828087396317180064

Mitch Presnick talks about the strength of China's economy.

The 4 Key Strengths of China’s Economy — and What They Mean for Multinational Companies​

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This article validates some of Presnick's arguments about China's economic relationship with the Global South above.

Is China’s overseas direct investment outflanking US trade strategy?​

Geopolitical tensions have led to a decline in Chinese exports to the US by US$240 billion between 2018 and 2023, but trade dependencies between the two superpowers have not fallen to the degree that headlines suggest. Chinese content has strategically relocated to third countries before being exported with value-add to the United States, even as the West seeks to decouple or de-risk from the world's largest manufacturing economy.

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Mitch Presnick's article triggered some serious coping and seething.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828133474794119187

 

[Enestori]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828177826052288878

COVID has caused far more permanent scarring of China’s economy than of any other large economy and due to behavioral changes surrounding capital investment, consumption, etc - has sent China’s trend growth path permanently lower

The guy who produced those charts got it completely wrong on the biggest economic story of the decade: inflation. Here are some gems.

March 2021
2.6% Inflation

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May 2021
5% Inflation

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August 2021
5.3% Inflation

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The temporary acceleration in price increases is already fading….

November 2021
6.8% Inflation

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December 2021
7% Inflation

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January 2022
7.5% Inflation

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A comprehensive decomposition of the changes in consumer prices since the pandemic began suggests that supply constraints in a handful of sectors are still the main source of the trouble.

At this point, inflation was 7.5% and he was STILL saying it was a “supply constraints in a handful of sectors” and to "keep watching motor vehicles(!)"

You cannot get more wrong than this. No, inflation was not about motor vehicles. No, it was not "a handful of sectors." It was systemic and it was getting worse and it lasted for all of Biden's presidency.

This person spent years producing charts cherrypicking data to say inflation wasn’t happening. He’s now doing the same with the Chinese economy.

This guy is a joke.

 

[Enestori]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1828177826052288878

COVID has caused far more permanent scarring of China’s economy than of any other large economy and due to behavioral changes surrounding capital investment, consumption, etc - has sent China’s trend growth path permanently lower

Here is more brilliant inflation analysis from the guy who created the charts proving China's economy is collapsing.

September 2021
5.4% Inflation

The temporary inflation spike associated with America’s reopening seems to have ended—or even partly reversed.

- Matthew Klein,

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In March 2023, 18 months later, inflation finally “reversed” below 5.4%.

November 2021
6.8% Inflation

A close read of the data so far suggests that the current price pressure is still confined to the same batch of idiosyncratic sectors that have been driving inflation all year.

- Matthew Klein,

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December 2021
7% Inflation

A close reading of the data suggests that the current price pressure is still confined to the same batch of idiosyncratic sectors that have been driving inflation all year.​

- Matthew Klein,

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Klein actually highlighted this part himself. This guy was convinced 7% inflation was “idiosyncratic” and all just “motor vehicles.”

This is some of the worst economic analysis I've ever read. It may literally be the worst. Right now, I cannot think of a single other economist who wrote something so wrong. Well, at least his charts full of cherry-picked data looked pretty.

 

[abenomics12345]

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Have a look at the government budget folks.

 

[HighGround]

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Have a look at the government budget folks.

Incomes and proceeds from sales taxes are down. That's not a great economic indicator, but I am not someone who follows China's econ data. Anybody else able to put this into proper context?

 

[abenomics12345]

Here is more brilliant inflation analysis from the guy who created the charts proving China's economy is collapsing.

September 2021
5.4% Inflation

In March 2023, 18 months later, inflation finally “reversed” below 5.4%.

November 2021
6.8% Inflation


December 2021
7% Inflation

Klein actually highlighted this part himself. This guy was convinced 7% inflation was “idiosyncratic” and all just “motor vehicles.”

This is some of the worst economic analysis I've ever read. It may literally be the worst. Right now, I cannot think of a single other economist who wrote something so wrong. Well, at least his charts full of cherry-picked data looked pretty.

Him being an absolute idiot on the US economy doesn't make him an absolute idiot on China.

Similarly, that the US has deep rooted economic problems does not mean China does not have economic problems.

 

[didklmyself]

Him being an absolute idiot on the US economy doesn't make him an absolute idiot on China.

Similarly, that the US has deep rooted economic problems does not mean China does not have economic problems.

Agree on the latter but do you think that an economist that fails to read their own economy would do better analyzing foreign economies much less the Chinese one?

 

[proelite]

Incomes and proceeds from sales taxes are down. That's not a great economic indicator, but I am not someone who follows China's econ data. Anybody else able to put this into proper context?

Use google translate.

 

[HighGround]

Use google translate.

I did, that's not what my question was about.

 

[qrex]

Him being an absolute idiot on the US economy doesn't make him an absolute idiot on China.

Similarly, that the US has deep rooted economic problems does not mean China does not have economic problems.

Abenomics is back!