See above for surveys showing deterioration (note I emphasize deterioration, not implosion) of income expectations/consumption patterns with time series data.
I believe the specific phrase you used was "Confidence/sentiment is Atrocious".
The other relevant phrase was "As such, the majority of the population do not share the overall positive sentiments espoused by those on this forum".
The charts you shared (which is a fair bit more representative with 2000 individuals though I would prefer something a bit larger than that still) are interesting, but I don't think they depict what you were trying to describe above.
For example, in the first chart of "China economic outlook in next six months" you posted (which is probably the one most directly relevant to both of those phrases), the % of those surveyed in October with negative outlook is at 11%, same at 33% and positive at 56%. Tracking the trends over the prior year or so in that graph, we can observe that the positive sentiments have reduced slightly from December 2022, with slight rise in the "same" category and significant fluctuations in the "negative" category.
I'm not sure if that data shows "atrocious" or "majority of the population do not share the overall positive sentiments" unless you have a different definition of those to myself.
If you want to turn it back and then limit yourself merely to "deterioration" then I can agree with you, but I note in your original post #29299 you did not use that word nor other similar words like "relative decline" or "fluctuation" or even "uncertain".
When 700mln consumers at KFC and Pizza Hut are voting with their wallets, in my books that certainly is quite characteristic of the "majority of the population", especially considering the other 700mln largely do not have readily available access to KFC locations and would have even worse off financial conditions than those who do. It is not extremely disingenuous to question the validity of what someone says when they are literally seeing how 700 mln customers behave daily? If your only retort is - 'but they don't see the other 700mln' - then all the power to you.
I'll take the statements you recall from the Yum CEO as fact for the purposes of my response, and to be honest I don't have any particular objection to what was described. I wouldn't be surprised if consumer spending was fluctuating with periods of relative declines during the year. However I do not think that warrants the phrases you used above.
Furthermore, even if we look at what Yum China are saying to media in terms of their opinions of recovery and revenue, I actually even agree with them there. Wave-like and non-linear being a way of describing the post pandemic economic recovery. And describing consumer demand as "softening" for a period also seems reasonable to me.
"The post-pandemic economic recovery is shaping up to be a ‘wave-like’ and ‘non-linear’ process,” CFO Andy Yeung said in a statement, noting that Yum China “observed softening consumer demand emerged in late September through October.”
“So, we will continue to stay agile and take actions to drive sales and cost-efficiency in these evolving market conditions. However, the overall trend towards recovery is evident this year, and many of our performance metrics are setting new records,” Yeung said.
Furthermore, what I am describing here is the present situation, never did I ever claim to represent that this will indeed last into the future - do not put words in my mouth.
I don't think I ever made any claims that you said anything "will indeed" last into the future.
Rather, I am saying that you used the sentiments/anecdotes/conversations you personally experienced, and generalized it in a manner that the sampling method and sample size should not enable, and on top of that you had described it as having a risk of worsening or continuing into the future:
"As such, the majority of the population do not share the overall positive sentiments espoused by those on this forum. Take it for what its worth - you may disagree and think they are all idiots or they are wrong, but you better make sure you understand that this is the feeling of majority of the population.
...and is at risk of turning into a vicious cycle. As a result, the overall negative sentiment is turning into a societal consensus and this is the biggest risk for Japanification at a much lower disposable income level - if the population at large do not share confidence in the future of the State, then you have situations where all the 'elites' want to run. "
By the way, inverting the question here, why in the world would the central government stimulate more if they didn't think the economic recovery was weaker than expected? Are you suggesting that they are making a mistake for stimulating into an overheated economy? (Especially when debt/gdp is already quite elevated.)
I assume this question isn't directed to me, as I haven't made any statements about government stimulus.
