Chinese Economics Thread

[ZeEa5KPul]

I don't see it that way at all. The U.S. is not like one of those primitive powers of centuries past that tries to dominate everyone. It is really an exceptional country that was founded on the ideals of human equality, and, as Antony Blinken said, although it often is imperfect, it tries to improve itself and strive to be good. That is why so many countries from Europe to Japan consent to live under U.S. domination - because they know that, the U.S. is a benevolent power that will not try to hold down their peoples just for wanting a better life. That is why it is such a surprise, to me, and morally wrong, thay the U.S. would try to do this to China.

And for those of you who glibly and smugly say, "You should have expected this", consider this: If the U.S. suppressed China's development successfully, the next day it could do the same to your country, if your country were to become too successful or cross whoever is in Washington at the time. Would you be so complacent and accepting then? If the U.S. can suppress any country's development by diktat from Washington, then it will be able to subjugate anyone. There, it is in the interests of 90% of the world's population that technology is distributed and not in the hands of such a small group of elites.

As an American, I can only push for my government to change policy and adopt a more enlightened approach that will restore our moral high ground in the future.

Consider a career in comedy. Monetize your enormous talent instead of wasting it on a forum that overwhelmingly disagrees with you, to put it mildly.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

Surpass in nominal GDP? but such measurement is dependent on the U.S. currency, which is the defacto world reserved currency. When the dollar inflates/appreciates its value up goes it's GDP while the countries of the world suffers and are affected, China is of no exception. Is it not the case?

A lot of these writings and prognostications of China winning, China collapsing are being done majority of the time, by Western-China watchers, both the doomers/gloomers and boomers. China never publicly expressed that their intended desire is to surpass America's nominal GDP by such a date in x,y,z when in fact, by the time managed to surpass U.S. GDP via PPP calculation the general consensus in China's leadership was of alarm, since they were quite adept and sensitive to how the Americans would perceive such unwelcome news. The ego, and butthurt from the Americans would be unbearable as we have all witnessed these many years.

Western publications, build up their China strawman, both pros and cons, then they busily argue with, for, and against themselves deconstructing, explaining, extrapolating their fallacious arguments without actually giving a flying 2 bits what the actual Chinese people both from within and without the government.

Western mindset is quite extraordinary when it comes to inventing fiction.

Just look at this example as a supporting evidence to what I wrote above: The Pentagon/War Dept. has been talking, planning about U.S. China war in the Taiwan Straights since 1994. The China 2025 plan has been discussed for almost 30 years. Here's the X post:

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[tamsen_ikard]

It is quite funny to see so many experts predicting that China will never surpass the US in nominal GDP, with some even singling out low consumption as a major issue, immediately following a post that shows that Chinese online retail is on pace be double the US this year even at current exchange rates.

This post was so eye opening. The fact that so many so called experts in such prominent positions can have such distorted view of economics and so easily swayed by typical western media articles about China is telling how delusional general public in the west is. They have literally no clue what is going on in the world. They are completely blinded by their own sense of superiority.

I do notice that the overwhelming majority of people who "disagree" are not even economists. They are simply think tankers with likely political science degrees. So, their only supporting evidence is the typical talking points of demographic collapse and xi jinping being obsessed with power and so on.

The ones that do agree that China will surpass the US are also very careful about saying this. Alot of them did not even write a comment. As if they are afraid to say what they think. This shows how this notion that China cannot surpass US nominal GDP is becoming a loyalty test now. If you don't parrot the talking points, you are likely to be shunned by the mainstream.

 

[tygyg1111]

I don't see it that way at all. The U.S. is not like one of those primitive powers of centuries past that tries to dominate everyone. It is really an exceptional country that was founded on the ideals of human equality, and, as Antony Blinken said, although it often is imperfect, it tries to improve itself and strive to be good. That is why so many countries from Europe to Japan consent to live under U.S. domination - because they know that, the U.S. is a benevolent power that will not try to hold down their peoples just for wanting a better life. That is why it is such a surprise, to me, and morally wrong, thay the U.S. would try to do this to China.

As an American, I can only push for my government to change policy and adopt a more enlightened approach that will restore our moral high ground in the future.

Seriously, do you believe that your 'compatriots' consider you, unconditionally, an American?

 

[Staedler]

I don't see it that way at all. The U.S. is not like one of those primitive powers of centuries past that tries to dominate everyone. It is really an exceptional country that was founded on the ideals of human equality, and, as Antony Blinken said, although it often is imperfect, it tries to improve itself and strive to be good. That is why so many countries from Europe to Japan consent to live under U.S. domination - because they know that, the U.S. is a benevolent power that will not try to hold down their peoples just for wanting a better life. That is why it is such a surprise, to me, and morally wrong, thay the U.S. would try to do this to China.

And for those of you who glibly and smugly say, "You should have expected this", consider this: If the U.S. suppressed China's development successfully, the next day it could do the same to your country, if your country were to become too successful or cross whoever is in Washington at the time. Would you be so complacent and accepting then? If the U.S. can suppress any country's development by diktat from Washington, then it will be able to subjugate anyone. There, it is in the interests of 90% of the world's population that technology is distributed and not in the hands of such a small group of elites.

As an American, I can only push for my government to change policy and adopt a more enlightened approach that will restore our moral high ground in the future.

As an American, our government has never had the moral high ground on anything. Jesus Christ man, make your shilling a little less obvious.

 

[azn_cyniq]

I don't see it that way at all. The U.S. is not like one of those primitive powers of centuries past that tries to dominate everyone. It is really an exceptional country that was founded on the ideals of human equality, and, as Antony Blinken said, although it often is imperfect, it tries to improve itself and strive to be good. That is why so many countries from Europe to Japan consent to live under U.S. domination - because they know that, the U.S. is a benevolent power that will not try to hold down their peoples just for wanting a better life. That is why it is such a surprise, to me, and morally wrong, thay the U.S. would try to do this to China.

And for those of you who glibly and smugly say, "You should have expected this", consider this: If the U.S. suppressed China's development successfully, the next day it could do the same to your country, if your country were to become too successful or cross whoever is in Washington at the time. Would you be so complacent and accepting then? If the U.S. can suppress any country's development by diktat from Washington, then it will be able to subjugate anyone. There, it is in the interests of 90% of the world's population that technology is distributed and not in the hands of such a small group of elites.

As an American, I can only push for my government to change policy and adopt a more enlightened approach that will restore our moral high ground in the future.

I understand that your post is well-intentioned, but I could not disagree more with your assessment of the United States.

How was the United States "founded on the ideals of human equality?" That statement is so detached from reality that I was left speechless for a few seconds after reading it. This nation was founded on the idea that all landowning Englishmen were equal. That's it. I have no idea where you got the idea that the founders of this nation cared about "human equality."

Did they care about "human equality" when they nearly exterminated the natives of North America to create "living space" for their people? Do you think that the US was "founded on the ideals of human equality" because the US has a lot of immigrants? Only members of the elites of other countries are allowed to immigrate to the United States. Don't get it twisted. The US is not an altruistic nation.

Europe and Japan choose to live under U.S. domination because they have no other choice. What are the Japanese people supposed to do? Rise up and get nuked again? Sure, being dominated by the U.S. isn't the worst thing in the world, but don't pretend that these countries have a choice. China and Russia do. They are strong enough to say no to the United States. That is precisely the reason why the US is trying to bring them down.

What moral high ground are you referring to? Does a country with the moral high ground forcibly sterilize hundreds of thousands of African-American women? Does a country with the moral high ground allow its corporations to poison its population with sugar and ultraprocessed food for the sake of profit? Why did the United States, with its moral high ground, coerce Taiwan into purchasing its mad-cow-disease-infested beef?

 

[Minm]

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It's sad that all these people don't talk about the main determinant of nominal GDP, which is the exchange rate and how the RMB's purchasing power relative to the dollar is very low at the moment

 

[Topazchen]

I understand that your post is well-intentioned, but I could not disagree more with your assessment of the United States.

How was the United States "founded on the ideals of human equality?" That statement is so detached from reality that I was left speechless for a few seconds after reading it. This nation was founded on the idea that all landowning Englishmen were equal. That's it. I have no idea where you got the idea that the founders of this nation cared about "human equality."

Did they care about "human equality" when they nearly exterminated the natives of North America to create "living space" for their people? Do you think that the US was "founded on the ideals of human equality" because the US has a lot of immigrants? Only members of the elites of other countries are allowed to immigrate to the United States. Don't get it twisted. The US is not an altruistic nation.

Europe and Japan choose to live under U.S. domination because they have no other choice. What are the Japanese people supposed to do? Rise up and get nuked again? Sure, being dominated by the U.S. isn't the worst thing in the world, but don't pretend that these countries have a choice. China and Russia do. They are strong enough to say no to the United States. That is precisely the reason why the US is trying to bring them down.

What moral high ground are you referring to? Does a country with the moral high ground forcibly sterilize hundreds of thousands of African-American women? Does a country with the moral high ground allow its corporations to poison its population with sugar and ultraprocessed food for the sake of profit? Why did the United States, with its moral high ground, coerce Taiwan into purchasing its mad-cow-disease-infested beef?

The moral high was before the libtards and the GOP took over and destroyed brand America.

America really believed in human equality that's why they had to put it in the constitution that African Americans were 3/5ths of a person and had a Chinese exclusion act restrict immigration of a certain people. Good old days.

 

[xypher]

This post was so eye opening. The fact that so many so called experts in such prominent positions can have such distorted view of economics and so easily swayed by typical western media articles about China is telling how delusional general public in the west is. They have literally no clue what is going on in the world. They are completely blinded by their own sense of superiority.

I do notice that the overwhelming majority of people who "disagree" are not even economists. They are simply think tankers with likely political science degrees. So, their only supporting evidence is the typical talking points of demographic collapse and xi jinping being obsessed with power and so on.

The ones that do agree that China will surpass the US are also very careful about saying this. Alot of them did not even write a comment. As if they are afraid to say what they think. This shows how this notion that China cannot surpass US nominal GDP is becoming a loyalty test now. If you don't parrot the talking points, you are likely to be shunned by the mainstream.

Good for China then, it means that the US is indeed in a state of steady decline - decadent regimes tend to surround themselves with "yes-men" and turn up propaganda to mask the failures instead of working to solve them which ultimately leads to their demise as they miss the opportunity windows. The US can keep self-deluding itself while sleep walking into the abyss.

Meanwhile I see Chinese government at least trying to address the obvious problems with property sector, high borrowing by local governments, etc. Sure, this stuff is not changing overnight but there's a progress.

@gadgetcool5 did you at least receive some compensation for that propaganda post or you are one of those ideological libs?

 

[mossen]

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Most of us already knew this, but nevertheless a very good overview. Lots of detail. My favourite stat:

A recent report from Tsinghua University, China’s leading institution, reveals the trend for China’s top talent: Over the past few years, the number of Tsinghua graduates who chose to study in the United States plummeted — from 11% in 2018 to a mere 3% in 2021. This sentiment marks a significant change from the late 1980s and 1990s. For example, when Shi Yigong, the former vice president of Tsinghua University, graduated in 1989, more than 70% of his graduating class at Tsinghua chose to study in the United States. A similarly drastic drop in interest in studying in the United States is reported in other top universities in China such as Peking University.

There's a lot of debate about the perceived weakness of the Chinese economy in this thread, but people ultimately vote with their feet. If the elite youth of China were jumping ship I would be worried. But they are clearly not.

The jump of illegal migrants from China at the US border cannot be taken as a serious indicator, possibly because that demographic has some unique characteristics. I've seen it suggested that many of them could be involved in illegal gambling (there has been a recent crackdown), but of course I have no hard proof to confirm that. Just found it an interesting theory.