Chinese Economics Thread

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
China basher who often criticize unelected Chinese government or CCP legitimacy as aberation should read this excellent article by Martin Jacques in BBC First posted by Don Juan in CDF
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A Point Of View: Is China more legitimate than the West?

China and the United States are about to choose new leaders via very different methods. But is a candidate voted for by millions a more legitimate choice than one annointed by a select few, asks Martin Jacques.

This week will witness an extraordinary juxtaposition of events. On Tuesday the next American president will be elected. Two days later, the 18th congress of the Chinese Communist Party will select the new Chinese president and prime minister.

The contrast could hardly be greater.

Americans in their tens of millions will turn out to vote. In China the process of selection will take place behind closed doors and involve only a relative handful of people.

You are probably thinking, "Ah, America at its best, China at its worst - the absence of democracy. China's Achilles heel is its governance. This will be China's downfall."

I want to argue quite the contrary.

You probably think that the legitimacy and authority of the state, or government, is overwhelmingly a function of democracy, Western-style.

But democracy is only one factor. Nor does democracy in itself guarantee legitimacy.

Think of Italy. It is always voting, but the enduring problem of Italian governance is that its state lacks legitimacy. Half the population don't really believe in it.

Now let me shock you: the Chinese state enjoys greater legitimacy than any Western state. How come?

In China's case the source of the state's legitimacy lies entirely outside the history or experience of Western societies.


In my first talk I explained that China is not primarily a nation-state but a civilisation-state. For the Chinese, what matters is civilisation. For Westerners it is nation. The most important political value in China is the integrity and unity of the civilisation-state.

Given the sheer size and diversity of the country, this is hugely problematic. Between the 1840s and 1949, China was occupied by the colonial powers, divided and fragmented. The Chinese refer to it as their century of humiliation.

They see the state as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilisation. Its most important responsibility - bar none - is maintaining the unity of the country. A government that fails to ensure this will fall.

There have been many examples in history. The legitimacy of the Chinese state lies, above all, in its relationship with Chinese civilisation.

But does the Chinese state, you may well ask, really enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of its people?

Take the findings of Tony Saich at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. In a series of surveys he found that between 80 and 95% of Chinese people were either relatively or extremely satisfied with central government.

Chinese people say they are happy with their government's economic record
Or take the highly respected Pew Global Attitudes surveys which found in 2010, for example, that 91% of Chinese respondents thought that the government's handling of the economy was good (the UK figure, incidentally was 45%).

Such high levels of satisfaction do not mean that China is conflict-free.

On the contrary, there are countless examples of protest action, such as the wave of strikes in Guangdong province for higher wages in 2010 and 2011, and the 150,000 or more so-called mass incidents that take place every year - generally protests by farmers against what they see as the illegal seizure of their land by local authorities in cahoots with property developers.

But these actions do not imply any fundamental dissatisfaction with central government.

If the Chinese state enjoys such support, then why does it display such signs of paranoia? The controls on the press and the internet, the periodic arrest of dissidents, and the rest of it.

Good point. Actually, all Chinese governments have displayed these same symptoms. Why?

Because the country is huge and governance is extremely difficult. They are always anxious, always fearing the unforeseen. Anticipating sources of instability has long been regarded as a fundamental attribute of good governance.


Not surprisingly, the Chinese have a quite different attitude towards government to that universal in the West.

True, our attitude depends in part on where we stand on the political spectrum. If you are on the right, you are likely to believe in less government and more market. If you are on the left, you are likely to be more favourably disposed to the state.

But both left and right share certain basic assumptions. The role of the state should be codified in law, there should be clear limits to its powers, and there are many areas in which the state should not be involved. We believe the state is necessary - but only up to a point.

The Chinese idea of the state could hardly be more different.

They do not view it from a narrowly utilitarian standpoint, in terms of what it can deliver, let alone as the devil incarnate in the manner of the American Tea Party.

They see the state as an intimate, or, to be more precise, as a member of the family - the head of the family, in fact. The Chinese regard the family as the template for the state. What's more, they perceive the state not as external to themselves but as an extension or representation of themselves.

The fact that the Chinese state enjoys such an exalted position in society lends it enormous authority, a remarkable ubiquity and great competence.

Take the economy. China's economic rise - an annual growth rate of 10% for more than 30 years - has been masterminded by the Chinese state.

It is the most remarkable economic transformation the world has seen since the modern era began with Britain's industrial revolution in the late 18th Century.

Even though China is still a poor developing country, its state, I would argue, is the most competent in the world.


Take infrastructure - the importance of which is belatedly now being recognised in the West. Here, China has no peers. Its high speed rail network is the world's largest and will soon be greater than the rest of the world's put together.

And the state's ubiquity - a large majority of China's most competitive companies, to this day, are state-owned. Or consider the one-child policy, which still commands great support amongst the population.

The competence of the state is little talked about or really valued in the West, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world.

Continue reading the main story
China's high speed railway

Indeed, since the early 80s, the debate about the state in Britain has largely been conducted in terms either of what bits should be privatised or how it can be made to mimic the market.

Now, however, we are in a new ball game. With the Western economies in a profound mess and with China's startling rise, the competence of the state can no longer be ignored. Our model is in crisis. Theirs has been delivering the goods.

As China's dramatic ascent continues - which it surely will - then China's strengths will become a growing subject of interest in the West. We will realise that our relationship with them can no longer consist of telling them how they should be like us. A little humility is in order.

One of the most dramatic illustrations of this will be the state. We think of it as their greatest weakness but we will come to realise that it is one of their greatest strengths.

Beyond a point it would be quite impossible for a Western state to be like China's. It is the product of a different history and a different relationship between state and society. You could never transplant their state into a Western country, and vice versa. But this does not mean that we cannot learn from the Chinese state, just as they have learnt much from us.

China's rise will have a profound effect on Western debate.


The Chinese economy is set to overtake the US in 2018
In about six years hence, the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size. By 2030 it will be very much larger.

The world is increasingly being shaped by China, and if it has looked west for the last two centuries, in future it will look east.

Welcome, then, to the new Chinese paradigm - one that combines a highly competitive, indeed often ferocious market, with a ubiquitous and competent state.

For us in the West this is an entirely new phenomenon. And it will shape our future.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
China basher who often criticize unelected Chinese government or CCP legitimacy as aberation should read this excellent article by Martin Jacques in BBC First posted by Don Juan in CDF
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


A Point Of View: Is China more legitimate than the West?

China and the United States are about to choose new leaders via very different methods. But is a candidate voted for by millions a more legitimate choice than one annointed by a select few, asks Martin Jacques.

This week will witness an extraordinary juxtaposition of events. On Tuesday the next American president will be elected. Two days later, the 18th congress of the Chinese Communist Party will select the new Chinese president and prime minister.

The contrast could hardly be greater.

Americans in their tens of millions will turn out to vote. In China the process of selection will take place behind closed doors and involve only a relative handful of people.

You are probably thinking, "Ah, America at its best, China at its worst - the absence of democracy. China's Achilles heel is its governance. This will be China's downfall."

I want to argue quite the contrary.

You probably think that the legitimacy and authority of the state, or government, is overwhelmingly a function of democracy, Western-style.

But democracy is only one factor. Nor does democracy in itself guarantee legitimacy.

Think of Italy. It is always voting, but the enduring problem of Italian governance is that its state lacks legitimacy. Half the population don't really believe in it.

Now let me shock you: the Chinese state enjoys greater legitimacy than any Western state. How come?

In China's case the source of the state's legitimacy lies entirely outside the history or experience of Western societies.


In my first talk I explained that China is not primarily a nation-state but a civilisation-state. For the Chinese, what matters is civilisation. For Westerners it is nation. The most important political value in China is the integrity and unity of the civilisation-state.

Given the sheer size and diversity of the country, this is hugely problematic. Between the 1840s and 1949, China was occupied by the colonial powers, divided and fragmented. The Chinese refer to it as their century of humiliation.

They see the state as the embodiment and guardian of Chinese civilisation. Its most important responsibility - bar none - is maintaining the unity of the country. A government that fails to ensure this will fall.

There have been many examples in history. The legitimacy of the Chinese state lies, above all, in its relationship with Chinese civilisation.

But does the Chinese state, you may well ask, really enjoy legitimacy in the eyes of its people?

Take the findings of Tony Saich at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. In a series of surveys he found that between 80 and 95% of Chinese people were either relatively or extremely satisfied with central government.

Chinese people say they are happy with their government's economic record
Or take the highly respected Pew Global Attitudes surveys which found in 2010, for example, that 91% of Chinese respondents thought that the government's handling of the economy was good (the UK figure, incidentally was 45%).

Such high levels of satisfaction do not mean that China is conflict-free.

On the contrary, there are countless examples of protest action, such as the wave of strikes in Guangdong province for higher wages in 2010 and 2011, and the 150,000 or more so-called mass incidents that take place every year - generally protests by farmers against what they see as the illegal seizure of their land by local authorities in cahoots with property developers.

But these actions do not imply any fundamental dissatisfaction with central government.

If the Chinese state enjoys such support, then why does it display such signs of paranoia? The controls on the press and the internet, the periodic arrest of dissidents, and the rest of it.

Good point. Actually, all Chinese governments have displayed these same symptoms. Why?

Because the country is huge and governance is extremely difficult. They are always anxious, always fearing the unforeseen. Anticipating sources of instability has long been regarded as a fundamental attribute of good governance.


Not surprisingly, the Chinese have a quite different attitude towards government to that universal in the West.

True, our attitude depends in part on where we stand on the political spectrum. If you are on the right, you are likely to believe in less government and more market. If you are on the left, you are likely to be more favourably disposed to the state.

But both left and right share certain basic assumptions. The role of the state should be codified in law, there should be clear limits to its powers, and there are many areas in which the state should not be involved. We believe the state is necessary - but only up to a point.

The Chinese idea of the state could hardly be more different.

They do not view it from a narrowly utilitarian standpoint, in terms of what it can deliver, let alone as the devil incarnate in the manner of the American Tea Party.

They see the state as an intimate, or, to be more precise, as a member of the family - the head of the family, in fact. The Chinese regard the family as the template for the state. What's more, they perceive the state not as external to themselves but as an extension or representation of themselves.

The fact that the Chinese state enjoys such an exalted position in society lends it enormous authority, a remarkable ubiquity and great competence.

Take the economy. China's economic rise - an annual growth rate of 10% for more than 30 years - has been masterminded by the Chinese state.

It is the most remarkable economic transformation the world has seen since the modern era began with Britain's industrial revolution in the late 18th Century.

Even though China is still a poor developing country, its state, I would argue, is the most competent in the world.


Take infrastructure - the importance of which is belatedly now being recognised in the West. Here, China has no peers. Its high speed rail network is the world's largest and will soon be greater than the rest of the world's put together.

And the state's ubiquity - a large majority of China's most competitive companies, to this day, are state-owned. Or consider the one-child policy, which still commands great support amongst the population.

The competence of the state is little talked about or really valued in the West, especially in the Anglo-Saxon world.

Continue reading the main story
China's high speed railway

Indeed, since the early 80s, the debate about the state in Britain has largely been conducted in terms either of what bits should be privatised or how it can be made to mimic the market.

Now, however, we are in a new ball game. With the Western economies in a profound mess and with China's startling rise, the competence of the state can no longer be ignored. Our model is in crisis. Theirs has been delivering the goods.

As China's dramatic ascent continues - which it surely will - then China's strengths will become a growing subject of interest in the West. We will realise that our relationship with them can no longer consist of telling them how they should be like us. A little humility is in order.

One of the most dramatic illustrations of this will be the state. We think of it as their greatest weakness but we will come to realise that it is one of their greatest strengths.

Beyond a point it would be quite impossible for a Western state to be like China's. It is the product of a different history and a different relationship between state and society. You could never transplant their state into a Western country, and vice versa. But this does not mean that we cannot learn from the Chinese state, just as they have learnt much from us.

China's rise will have a profound effect on Western debate.


The Chinese economy is set to overtake the US in 2018
In about six years hence, the Chinese economy will overtake the US economy in size. By 2030 it will be very much larger.

The world is increasingly being shaped by China, and if it has looked west for the last two centuries, in future it will look east.

Welcome, then, to the new Chinese paradigm - one that combines a highly competitive, indeed often ferocious market, with a ubiquitous and competent state.

For us in the West this is an entirely new phenomenon. And it will shape our future.

I read his book and it mostly repeats much of the same content you see here, Jacques is very well informed but his view and writings are largely that of anthropological kind, that is to say he doesn't offer very much of substance on the economic or military workings of the Chinese government or society. Still he offers some good information that would be a valuable launching point for any relatively new student to Chinese affairs.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
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Lenovo knocks HP from top of global PC market: Gartner
Date
October 12, 2012
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Poornima Gupta and Lee Chyen Yee

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China's Lenovo edged out Silicon Valley icon Hewlett-Packard to become the world's No. 1 PC maker in the third quarter, according to data released by research house Gartner this week.

A rival to Gartner, IDC, still ranks HP in the lead - but by less than half a percentage point - in terms of PC shipments worldwide. Both studies reinforce HP's struggles against rivals as new chief executive Meg Whitman tries to overhaul the stalled 73-year-old company.

Worldwide shipments of personal computers fell over 8 per cent in the third quarter to 87.5 million, the steepest decline since 2001, Gartner analysts said.

PC demand growth has crumbled over the past year as more consumers flock to ultra-portable and increasingly powerful tablets and smartphones for basic computing.

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"It's quite a tough year for PC makers because [Microsoft's] Windows 8 is not launched yet and some consumers are waiting for that. Cannibalisation of tablet PCs is also another factor," said Eve Jung, an analyst with Nomura Securities in Taipei.

Both sets of data show that Lenovo, Taiwan's Acer and other Asian PC makers are taking share away from US competitors HP and Dell, which held on to the No. 3 spot in the quarter.

Lenovo, which has a market value of $US8.2 billion, said it believed there was room for continued growth in the sector.

"We are establishing even deeper roots in each major market around the world. In addition to localized sales and distribution teams in major markets, we are establishing an even stronger manufacturing footprint," Lenovo Chairman and CEO Yuanqing Yang said in a statement.

This year the company has bought Brazilian electronics maker CCE, valued at a base price of 300 million reais ($143 million), and US cloud computing firm Stoneware.

China's tech rise

Lenovo's rise highlights the advance of China's technology firms on the world stage in recent years as a result of aggressive pricing, overseas acquisitions, and taking advantage of a fast-growing home market.

The Chinese company, which vaulted into the PC market by buying IBM's personal computer division in 2005, took the top spot for the first time by growing its market share to 15.7 per cent, shipping an estimated 13.77 million units during the quarter, up nearly 10 per cent from a year ago, Gartner said.

HP's global PC share stood at 15.5 per cent after shipping 13.55 million units, down 16.4 per cent from a year ago, Gartner said, adding that this was the first time HP has not been the top-ranked PC vendor position since 2006.

IDC had HP at the No. 1 spot with a 15.9 per cent market share, marginally ahead of Lenovo's 15.7 per cent share.

HP responded to Gartner's study by saying IDC's was more expansive.

"While there are a variety of PC share reports in the market, some don't measure the market in its entirety," HP said in a statement. "The IDC analysis includes the very important workstation segment, and therefore is more comprehensive."

Analysts say PC makers are suffering from still-sluggish growth in consumer and corporate spending across the globe, even in once-reliably hot markets like China, Lenovo's home turf. The industry's future is uncertain, partly because of a proliferation of computing devices from tablets of all sizes to smartphones.

"PCs are going through a severe slump," said Jay Chou, senior research analyst at IDC's Worldwide PC Tracker.

"A weak global economy as well as questions about PC market saturation and delayed replacement cycles are certainly a factor, but the hard question of what is the 'it' product for PCs remain unanswered."

Reuters



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delft

Brigadier
Just a few remarks.
Martin Jacques mentions in his talk that the Chinese economy is to overtake that of the US in 2018. The OECD, which has a reputation of being optimistic about Western economies, published a report a few days ago in which it said this will happen in 2016.
China might be hurt by economic troubles in South Korea. See this article in the Christian Science Monitor:
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. There was also the news about nuclear power reactors in South Korea fitted with thousands of parts with falsified quality documentation.
 

kroko

Senior Member
heh, it seems china (both central and local governments) will keep the loss-making solar power companies running, little caring they are unprofitable, losing a lot of money (the 2 largest companies alone lost 1 billion dolares in 2012) and fuelling trade tension with the US and EU. I guess that the more subsidies they give in china, the more duties they get in the west. When will this guys learn ?

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cn_habs

Junior Member
heh, it seems china (both central and local governments) will keep the loss-making solar power companies running, little caring they are unprofitable, losing a lot of money (the 2 largest companies alone lost 1 billion dolares in 2012) and fuelling trade tension with the US and EU. I guess that the more subsidies they give in china, the more duties they get in the west. When will this guys learn ?

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Doesn't the US government hand out a boatload of subsidies to American farmers as well at the expense of other American taxpayers?

I guess the more subsidies they give in the US, the more duties they'll pay in China. When will this guy learn ?
 

Franklin

Captain
heh, it seems china (both central and local governments) will keep the loss-making solar power companies running, little caring they are unprofitable, losing a lot of money (the 2 largest companies alone lost 1 billion dolares in 2012) and fuelling trade tension with the US and EU. I guess that the more subsidies they give in china, the more duties they get in the west. When will this guys learn ?

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The bailouts is a bad idea and China should allow the solar panel makers to merge or go bankrupt. This is how the US got into trouble because the economy was carrying to much dead weight after two decades of bailing out everyone from the automakers to airliners to banks and insurance companies. China is risking making the same mistakes.
 

kroko

Senior Member
China´s SOE could be subjected to tighter controls in the USA. What i find remarkable is the fact that the content of this article is present on a state-owned website, describing the acusations made by the US comission and not refuting them.

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AssassinsMace

Lieutenant General
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Check out the comment by Irish Angel. He or she is the second to post. It has nothing to do with the article but I found it humorous. It's like they say you tell one person a story and it gets passed around then finally comes back to you only to be a totally different story from the one you told.

Well looks like Yahoo removed the comment for some unknown reason. They'll leave the most racist comments but for some reason this one crosses the line. Basically Irish Angel mentions he's just read about a US fighter made in China that just landed on a new US carrier. Then wonders if the carrier was made in China.
 
Last edited:

jackliu

Banned Idiot
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Check out the comment by Irish Angel. He or she is the second to post. It has nothing to do with the article but I found it humorous. It's like they say you tell one person a story and it gets passed around then finally comes back to you only to be a totally different story from the one you told.

Well looks like Yahoo removed the comment for some unknown reason. They'll leave the most racist comments but for some reason this one crosses the line. Basically Irish Angel mentions he's just read about a US fighter made in China that just landed on a new US carrier. Then wonders if the carrier was made in China.

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Why not go straight to the source itself for the funny comments.

Those are my favorites, each one have over 1000 thumps up.
I believe the U.S. landed a plane on a carrier way back in the 1920's.

Nice Ship bought with American money made on the sales of Chinese made goods here in the US.

A former Soviet ship, built in the Ukraine, operated by the Chinese - for the first time? What possibly could go wrong with that??

i dont know how everyone else feels about it but, i dont owe the chinese a MF'ing thing

US have been landing planes in carriers since before WW2
 
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