Chinese Economics Thread
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antiterror13
Brigadier
And how many Chinese buyers approved to takeover during the same period?
It's not impossible to do a stimulus without the money going into real estate.
The key is property taxes. The Chinese government has been reluctant to do anything drastic with this, but it is the proven way to get people off of investing solely in property. If your apartment is collecting dust and costing you 2% of its purchase price in taxes every year, it's not going to be considered a great investment. Actually, the Chinese government should be promoting bonds & treasuries as investment vehicles, which it can then direct to anything it wants to support, like chip companies, while using the proceeds from property taxes to deliver pay outs. Property taxes can go a long way to giving the government the levers it needs, in this respect.
But implementing country wide property taxes could very well crash the housing market, so you need to offer a carrot with the stick to combat deflation. Helicopter money is actually a great idea here, but it should be targeted, not thrown at the masses like the US did. In particular, helicopter money should be used to motivate people to have children. Through a combination of tax breaks, monthly pay outs, and priority housing for people looking to get married and start families. This could help stabilize housing prices after instituting property taxes, while at the same time, encouraging single people to stop dreaming about their "child free" comforts, because it should be made clear that China is not a country for toxic individualists.
Russia is a great case study of whether or not an economy can run on just economic relationship with China. It looks like you can. I think it's possible they hit $250B in trading this year. Russia is more dependent on importing the machineries it needs from China than even export.
Overall breakdown by region
Given the current weakness in Western economies, the % of trade w/ North America & Europe is probably at an all time low
The Russian and Chinese economies are highly complementary. China mostly imports raw materials and exports finished goods, while Russia is the exact opposite. By being the country with the largest land area on Earth, Russia is also the world's largest source of raw materials. And that is with current resource exploration, Russia has a lot more resource potential which thus far has not been explored.
The Russians found out they could replace all motor vehicle imports, i.e. cars and trucks, which used to come from Europe and Japan with Chinese ones. Right now a lot of formerly foreign owned car factories in Russia are still being transitioned to new owners. But in a year or two the Russian car industry will go back to 2021 car production levels. China's car exports to Russia might decrease somewhat and be replaced with car parts exports. But I think this change is pretty much going to be permanent and the Western cars won't be coming back in any significant fashion.
Russia was China's largest export market for cars. With basically double the amount of cars exported than the next on the list which is Mexico. Russia helped propel China into world's largest car exporter over the past year.
Russia could also have been replacing imports of European civilian transport aircraft (planes and helicopters) with Chinese ones. If such were available for their acquisition. For example if China gets the MA700 into production with Chinese components, Russia will quite likely be a client for such an aircraft, Russia might also end up buying light helicopters from China. For this China needs to come into the Russian market with such products.
Russia also bought way too many ships from the West and used the services of Western shipping companies. That will need to change. And as the world's largest shipbuilder it is hard to think that China will not have a role in this.
The Russians found out they could replace all motor vehicle imports, i.e. cars and trucks, which used to come from Europe and Japan with Chinese ones. Right now a lot of formerly foreign owned car factories in Russia are still being transitioned to new owners. But in a year or two the Russian car industry will go back to 2021 car production levels. China's car exports to Russia might decrease somewhat and be replaced with car parts exports. But I think this change is pretty much going to be permanent and the Western cars won't be coming back in any significant fashion.
Russia was China's largest export market for cars. With basically double the amount of cars exported than the next on the list which is Mexico. Russia helped propel China into world's largest car exporter over the past year.
Russia could also have been replacing imports of European civilian transport aircraft (planes and helicopters) with Chinese ones. If such were available for their acquisition. For example if China gets the MA700 into production with Chinese components, Russia will quite likely be a client for such an aircraft, Russia might also end up buying light helicopters from China. For this China needs to come into the Russian market with such products.
Russia also bought way too many ships from the West and used the services of Western shipping companies. That will need to change. And as the world's largest shipbuilder it is hard to think that China will not have a role in this.
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Deleted member 24525
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There's no way that the Siberian traps don't have commercially viable iron deposits. This has annoyed me for a long time and hopefully Chinese prospectors might get access to them in the future.
More generally I would be interested in the specific data on things like CNCs, bearings, or precision forging/casting equipment if such records are available. IMO that would probably be the best metric for how sinicized Russia's industrial network has become.
In the short term, that's more wishful thinking than the reality. Many countries have property taxes but their housing prices are still going to the roof. Property taxes makes the cost of owning multiple properties costly without renting them out. However, if you allowed excess money supply and low interest rate for a prolong period, then the speculators would gobble up homes and push up the prices because the borrowing cost is so low and flipping them would be so profitable.
Property taxes should be aimed at resolving the local government revenue problems and over reliance on land sales not as a tool to deter speculation as other countries with property taxes has shown that it doesn't work as well as many people might think.
Helicopter money is never a great idea. It is used by irresponsible government such as the US that can spread the pain to other countries or countries such as Argentina and Venezuela which the results were never great.
As for targeted approach, it isn't called helicopter money if it is constrained. For generous handouts to reshape social behavior, it is fine as long as it is sustainable and affordable in the long term. Any attempts to deviate from long term affordability would always come back to bite the government in a very hard way.
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antiterror13
Brigadier
How about machinery from India? anything exported to Russia ?