Chinese Economics Thread

sunnymaxi

sunnymaxi

Major
Registered Member
Some 106 million domestic tourist trips were made in China during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival, up 32.3% from a year earlier, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism said. Tourism revenue rose 44.5% to CNY37.3 billion (USD5.2 billion) in the period..


Image
 
D

Dolcevita

Major
China/Russia takes another step to improve China food security. I expect Russia to pay a larger role in feeding China with the New Land Grain Corridor. China hedging and decoupling already.


Watch the video to gain insight on this endeavor.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


01 June 2023

Commencement of Regular Grain Shipments for Export through the “New Russia-China Land Grain Corridor”​

The regular grain shipments to the People’s Republic of China commenced at the world’s first specialized full-cycle land-based grain terminal Zabaikalsk-Manchuria on May 31, 2023. The grain products, including soybeans, are shipped under the Contract signed between Russian Production-Export Company FET and Chinese state corporation China Chengtong. The first batch of grain products was sent under the concerted supervision of the local Directorates of the Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Surveillance for the Altai and Zabaikalsk Territories. From seed grains to harvest, control and laboratory testing of the grain products were conducted at the place of origin by the colleagues from the Altai Territory. The Directorate of the Zabaikalsk Territory verified the documents certifying the quarantine and phytosanitary status of the grain batches and prepared the fumigation certificates. All products comply with the phytosanitary requirements of China.
02-otgruzka-010623.jpg

The development of the “New Russia-China Land Grain Corridor” project will contribute to grain production increase in the territory of Ural, Siberia and the Far East and access to the Celestial Empire’s market. The New Land Grain Corridor Group of Companies is implementing the same-named program supported by the President of the Russian Federation, the Prime Minister and the Government of the Russian Federation, as well as the Eurasian Economic Commission.
05-otgruzka-010623.jpg


For reference (New Land Grain Corridor GC):

The New Land Grain Corridor Group of Companies (NLGC GC) is an export-oriented holding structure implementing in Ural, Siberia and the Far East a project on the creation and development of the infrastructure for export of grains, grain legumes and oilseeds to China, Central Asia and the Middle East. The NLGC GC consists of Grain Terminal Zabaikalsk (GTZ) with the transshipment capacity of up to 8 million tons a year and Production-Export Company FET (FET) which is an operator and organizer of the contract farming and grain elevators infrastructure, as well as an owner of the export contracts.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
H

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
henrik said:
The Chinese now need to award people by printing more money. Inflation is too low, and people do not have confidence of spending money. Lowering interest rates is not going to work, because businesses are not borrowing. Maybe giving out spending vouchers per month for most people. Export more rmb, instead of just manufactured products.
Click to expand...

This guy agrees with my advice of giving out cash coupons for spending. :)

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673262879896899586
 
R

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Staedler said:
We don't even have to guess, all of these numbers are available for calculation. Let's presume the trend is true and holds, then we can run some numbers.

1) Data from ILOSTAT (UN) for 2021 says the GDP-PPP/hr was $70.68 for USA and $13.53 for China.
2) CEIC (UN doesn't provide this) says China's labor productivity growth averages 7.4% since 1953 to 2022. Even the last 10 years (including COVID years), averages 6.97%. The US averages 1.52% from 1949 to 2023 and the last ten years isn't particularly different (harder to calculate because its by quarter). This is mostly in the same ballpark as figures from other sources I've seen.
3) UN Population Division in "World Population Prospects 2022" predicts with 95% interval that it will take until 2100 for Chinese total population to decline by half. This is of course with no effective measures taken to arrest the decline.

We can reverse some calculations to say:
1) At 7% vs 1.5% productivity growth rate, it will take 31 years to catch up.
2) Population will decline by 1% on average until 2100 if the UN predict holds true.

That means the labor-population gap is still massively in China's favor even if it doesn't do anything special for at least 3 decades. After that, just maintaining the same productivity growth rate as the USA will still have Chinese GDP grow overall.

There's no particular reason why China should be unable to match the USA's gross labor productivity nor it's labor productivity growth rate.
Click to expand...
China's demographics isn't that bad as media told. As automation comes, labours demands are hugely reduced far more than working pops decline and demand for high educated workers increase, which china still have plenty rooms to fill up.
China should just slow birthrate decline.
 
M

Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
Registered Member
resistance said:
China's demographics isn't that bad as media told. As automation comes, labours demands are hugely reduced far more than working pops decline and demand for high educated workers increase, which china still have plenty rooms to fill up.
China should just slow birthrate decline.
Click to expand...
Nah, they still need to improve the birthrate, but the overall reduction in population isn't as big of a doom and gloom as many people make it out to be.

Like ffs there was some stats about how there's a bit over 20% of the workforce in China employed in fucking farming or something like that, western countries are like at ~5, so it just shows not enough automation and efficiency in the farming sector (a significant decrease would also put people in search of jobs, putting even more pressure on the job markets and competition for jobs, so the only 'real answer' is to somewhat slowly reduce it over time such as down to ~10% by say 2035-2040 and like ~5 by 2050 maybe).
 
R

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Michaelsinodef said:
Nah, they still need to improve the birthrate, but the overall reduction in population isn't as big of a doom and gloom as many people make it out to be.

Like ffs there was some stats about how there's a bit over 20% of the workforce in China employed in fucking farming or something like that, western countries are like at ~5, so it just shows not enough automation and efficiency in the farming sector (a significant decrease would also put people in search of jobs, putting even more pressure on the job markets and competition for jobs, so the only 'real answer' is to somewhat slowly reduce it over time such as down to ~10% by say 2035-2040 and like ~5 by 2050 maybe).
Click to expand...
I think massively increase birthrate can be achieved after massively increase arable land via this huge irrigation project. I hope this will be done by 2060
 

Attachments

  • images - 2023-03-20T205906.627.jpeg
    images - 2023-03-20T205906.627.jpeg
    42.3 KB · Views: 39
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top