Chinese Economics Thread

Biscuits

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Tariffs on Australia should remain and be extended.

China should also investigate other ways of restraining Australia's increasingly racist and assertive behavior.

For instance, export bans should be explored. China should consider a 100% export tax on all goods sent to Australia.

Australians should also be banned from visiting Hong Kong and Macau. China should consider deporting all Australian residents in Hong Kong and Macau.

Finally, Australian citizens should not be granted the privilege of reporting in China (including Hong Kong and Macau).
The goal of anti Australian sanctions were probably never intended as large scope or open ended. Instead, it was meant to be a way to test the waters and get Australia into Yuan trading.

I think almost the opposite to you, that now is a good time to scale back, but ensure that as much of the formerly sanctioned will be using yuan to resume trade.

Australia is an outpost of fascism in Asia, and as we see with most fascist countries, they're good at balling up when there's an external threat and taking punishment. A plan to topple Australian economy might hurt the people, but the regime will survive.

Instead, let Australia's leaders keep their "freedom" to spew hate and radical ideology, but let them become a carrier for the yuan trade. He will help spread dedollarization like a sick soldier that returns to his master's camp.
 

tphuang

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I think this is a good article here talking about one of the structural advantages that China has over everyone else. The port advantage is just one of the many advantages it has
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There is a reason China doesn't spend money on building commercial ports of other countries in ASEAN, but do it in Africa, West Asian and Latin America. It's not in China's interest to do so.

This is not great. shows SME in China is not doing as well as large state corporation in manufacturing.

This will help. new home sales will lead to more consumer spending

I find this kind of funny. It should be obvious that there is a lot of room for domestic chipmakers to grow
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tphuang

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One sign of how quickly China is moving can be seen in its trade vs South Korea. At this point, it's clear that China has completely defeated Korean industries and Korea now relies on Chinese supply chain

韩国三大领域在中国衰落,经济要被中国打出原型?

韩国官方公布3月份韩国出口同比下降13.6%,至551.2亿美元,若经工作日差异调整后的出口则较上年同期下降17.2%;3月份整体进口下降6.4%,贸易逆差为46.2亿美元。3月份韩国三大支柱芯片出口暴跌34.5%,显示器的出口量下降了41.6%,好在汽车则增长了64.2%。
韩国对华贸易下降尤其厉害,关键在于三大领域都被冲击。

首先是韩国很自豪的OLED屏幕,韩国去年全球占比大概是67%;而按韩国预测,今年韩国份额估计下降为61%,中国占39%,日本的倒闭,剩下中韩对垒;我估计明年中国就可能超过韩国了。前几年韩国还占90%多的领域,已经快速下降,京东方超过LG份额了,维信诺也在快速提升。想起之前无论国内友商如何攻击诋毁中伤华为旗舰机京东方OLED屏幕,华为都坚定的站京东方,终于起来了。这也可以看出当年那些友商是多么鼠目寸光和没有基本底线。
而且,之前韩国厂家通过订货控制日本高端真空蒸镀机产能,妄图让中国厂家起不来。但是
国内厂家合肥莱德和欣奕华都各自生产出高端真空蒸镀机,而且居然把精度控制在了1.5um超越日本厂家。所以韩国厂家一下子就被干翻,按一些商业快报分析,今年一季度中国OLED产能可能和韩国差不多,超越来得非常快。
Huawei stood by BOE even when they got slammed for quality domestically
Koreans tried to stop China's progress by ordering up all of Japan's high end vacuum evaporation machines, but China ended up just producing its own and even surpassed Japanese producers. At this pace, China's OLED production will reach parity with Korea very soon.
第二是韩国的芯片出口。韩国三星和海力士存储芯片在中国市场份额还是挺高,但是主要是在中国的工厂生产的,不再需要韩国出口。而且随着中国国产厂家存储芯片制造产能提升,每一片芯片其实都是在抢回之前被美日韩厂家占领的市场。中国是全世界最大的存储芯片市场,慢慢在失去中国市场份额,意味着韩国芯片出口自然要大跌。
Talks about chip export. Clearly, Korea saw a big fall here.
第三是韩国的汽车在中国边缘化。以前现代和起亚在高峰期中国市场销量让韩系年破百万多年。但是现在韩系和法系已经接近歇菜。当然韩国不仅仅整车出口不行,零配件出口也全部废了。韩系和新国产比起来没有什么优势还贵,而且韩国汽车产品现在给中国用户也带不了面子感,处于要性能没有性能、要面子没面子的尴尬地位,自然就快速退潮了。
韩系车目前在欧美起到廉价而靠谱的效果,所以出口大涨,但是那是中国汽车出口竞争还不够,中国市场是竞争最激烈的,从这个炼钢炉出去的产品都是九死一生,战斗力无限的。连过去美国垄断的互联网APP美国人都发现中国企业竞争力太强了,快扛不住。
Korean cars really never did well in Chinese market, but now they can't even export parts to China. All Korean automakers have are EU and American export markets. But I think Chinese EV exports to Europe will probably end up killing Korean exports there.
所以中国已经是韩国最大逆差国,对华贸易逆差最大的品目是精密化工原料(-18.49亿美元),其后依次是干电池·蓄电池(-13.78亿美元)、电脑(-11.24亿美元)、工业电子设备(-7.32亿美元)等。连以前韩国对华大量顺差的化工材料都逆转,可见韩国经济已经被打出原型了。如果韩国显示器、半导体和汽车被中国逆转,那他们完全没有翻盘机会
Korea runs biggest deficit to China in chemical material, batteries, computers & industrial electronics.
 

siegecrossbow

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One sign of how quickly China is moving can be seen in its trade vs South Korea. At this point, it's clear that China has completely defeated Korean industries and Korea now relies on Chinese supply chain


Huawei stood by BOE even when they got slammed for quality domestically
Koreans tried to stop China's progress by ordering up all of Japan's high end vacuum evaporation machines, but China ended up just producing its own and even surpassed Japanese producers. At this pace, China's OLED production will reach parity with Korea very soon.

Talks about chip export. Clearly, Korea saw a big fall here.

Korean cars really never did well in Chinese market, but now they can't even export parts to China. All Korean automakers have are EU and American export markets. But I think Chinese EV exports to Europe will probably end up killing Korean exports there.

Korea runs biggest deficit to China in chemical material, batteries, computers & industrial electronics.

Historic norms are being restored. No surprise there.
 

tphuang

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I think there are some solid info on what Chinese rare earth companies are scouring the globe for more rare earth mines so that it can take over them and refine them.

Keep in mind that while China has the most rare earth reserves, it is far and away the only control with them. russia/vietnam/brazil all have about 1/2 of what China has. Australia also has some rare earth. The key is processing technology. China restricts the export of RE processing technology. It also has the expertise and large knowledge base in processing RE. That's how it comes to dominate the industry. I always find it funny for articles to say x and y can partner up and get away from China. These people think Rare earth is oil and that you can just refine the metals with a snap of their fingers. It's like economics, refining technology and knowledge base don't matter at all.
 

tphuang

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several deals in discussion bw China & Brazil.

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BYD working with Orion-E for 1000 100kWp projects in Brazil, so 100 mWp in total. enough to power 30,000 homes

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GWM building charging network in Brazil

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A whole list of deals here. BYD taking over Ford factory.
Embraer getting a small order of E2s. This should be no problem. E2 is not as good as A220, but it works well enough in the short haul market and doesn't interfere with C919
Of course, Vale is the big one with China providing financing for various projects
and
The BOCOM BBM bank will join the Chinese payment system to reduce the cost of direct exchange commercial transactions between Real and renminbi, the Chinese currency. This way, the Brazilian branch of the ICBC bank will act as the RMB clearing bank in Brazil.
A bunch of other ones too. This is a pretty consequential trip in firming up ties bw China and Brazil.

And we will see if they announce stuff like space exploration, semiconductor plant, AI, cloud computing & green hydrogen. A lot of stuff China can offer for greater ties and using Chinese system.
 
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