Chinese Economics Thread

antiterror13

Brigadier
It's been known for a while now that China is a huge net exporter of gold. It runs a huge trading surplus so should have a lot of incoming USD. It hasn't been accumulating UST. Normally, that would lead to currency appreciation, but we haven't seen that, but gold prices keep going up.

At some point, China probably has to reveal how much gold it has really accumulated. The huge domestic production + the huge net import has not led to China changing its official gold reserves numbers.

At some point, China needs to start selling its USD holdings in general, not just the UST
I think it probably is still too concerned about currency stability when it needs to work harder at pushing RMB importance.
Chinese exporters are so competitive vs the west that CNY can significantly appreciate and Chinese exports will still be cheap.

did you meant ..... huge net "Imported " instead of exported ?
 

Biscuits

Major
Registered Member
Simple answer. Why put your money in China when you can put it in the West which is ruled by capital?

Of course there is a difference on how the West will treat Chinese millionaires/billionaires but they are still attracted to put their money there.

There is a fundamental contradiction here. Money people prefer to put their money in a money-ruled country
The lack of rule of law actually helps the ultra rich, because a lot of them have shady history.

However, China would still benefit from having support from these people, as long as they don't cause abuses. Stability and safety is the best argument for putting money in China, whereas ability to skirt laws and loose capital controls benefit the west. The fact that the west is now not respecting private property rights except for their own ultra rich might be the factor that gives China a temporary leg up in the race.

The question is, perhaps China in the future needs it's own major tax haven that has loose capital controls and weak rule of law, just to keep the ultra rich leashed. Because billionaires as a class is here to stay for the short term at least, and if China drives them away, it will make things unnecessarily hard.
 

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
The question is, perhaps China in the future needs it's own major tax haven that has loose capital controls and weak rule of law, just to keep the ultra rich leashed. Because billionaires as a class is here to stay for the short term at least, and if China drives them away, it will make things unnecessarily hard.
You mean something like Monaco?

Which Chinese city do you think can play such a role?
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
did you meant ..... huge net "Imported " instead of exported ?
yes, China imports a lot of gold

lol, buyer's remorse already. This UBS/CS situation isn't over. Will have a huge impact in Asia since both banks managed huge Asian wealth account. About time some of this accounts go back to Asian banks like ICBC

money quickly leaving Europe

Again, the recent crisis has to be incentivizing these Asian customers to bringing money back to HK/Singapore. HK is re-establishing itself as the center of banking world in Asia

Given the issues that crypto banks have had in America (believe me, all the major ones got shut down), it's interesting that Chinese banks are stepping in

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Interesting model here. So China is becoming the lender of last resort even though its interest rates are higher than that of IMF
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China is going the method of lending without austerity. Counting on country to grow out of debt. Whereas IMF imposes austerities which crush local economy by cutting spending.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Short term concerns are actually with staying alive and keep the size of the pie as big as it is while pies around the world keep shrinking. China has gotten away with stuff like 996 for the past three decades because the size of the pie (Chinese economy) kept increasing so rapidly that the lower class are content with just the scraps. The current geopolitical/economic climate means that this will no longer be the case in the future. Major economic calamity is going to shakeup the global economy and there is no one to bailout Wall Street this time.

Am I right or am I right?
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Exports of excavators increased 34% YoY last month.
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China may overtake Japan to become the largest car exporter in the world this year. The more products China can offer globally, the more incentive for other countries to hold yuan.

Not the only kind of excavator China's exporting if you get what am saying...
 
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