Chinese Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Yeah, we thoroughly debunked that study—but that's not what I want to know here. The WTO developing nation status comes with some benefits at the expense of the developed nations. Is China deliberately strawmanning its economic figures out of strategic considerations?
Almost certainly as most Chinese don't pay taxes. Chinese services GDP is likely underestimated. As for how much, IDK.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
It is classical deception and data twisting. If published in an actual journal of geophysics, they'd be laughed out of the room. But since they were able to publish in the highly ideological field of economics, it's all good. Experimental integrity not so important, reaching the politically correct conclusion is important.
Im not sure from who I got but paraphrasing it:

In physics you can use 3% of the laws to describe 97% of the world(macro) and with economics you can use 97% of the laws to not even describe 3% of the economy.
 

CMP

Senior Member
Registered Member
Im not sure from who I got but paraphrasing it:

In physics you can use 3% of the laws to describe 97% of the world(macro) and with economics you can use 97% of the laws to not even describe 3% of the economy.
economics is a mumbo jumbo magical shill craft with snake oil sales as the modus operandi. it's kind of like medieval and dark ages medicine with leeches and humors.
 

PiSigma

"the engineer"
listed anywhere

I don't think Huawei is listed anywhere

My top 5 are:
BYD - obviously (already invested a fortune here)
SMIC - I think they will corner Chinese high end market in a few years and that's a huge market
Wuxi Biologics - Seems like the most promising of the biotech/Pharma companies & most likely to find new drug that will cure all the hard to treat disease out there
NAURA - the most promising of the SMEs and that will be a huge market, huge growth opportunities ahead
Longi - Most promising new energy company in terms of their ability to control solar supply chain and for quickly moving into hydrogen. I also really like Sinopec's approach in H2 and chemicals, but they are not really growth stock.
No CATL? I would buy that and BYD
 

paiemon

Junior Member
Registered Member
Alright, let's get back to actually talking about Chinese economics.

Here is a question, if you were to invest in 5 Chinese companies right now (must on currently on the stock market). Who are they and why?
1. SMIC - really the only option for semiconductor foundry and in the Chinese market they look like the champion by default for better or worse.
2. Naura - semiconductor equipment. They seem more diversified across offerings then other peers like AMAT and I like that in company. I would also pick AMEC but they are more specialized.
3. Legend Biotech - @abenomics12345 would love to hear your thoughts, but they seem like one of the few leading edge Chinese biotechs that are actually pushing novel therapy and not just piggybacking.
4. CATL - forefront of electrification
5. Tencent - their game portfolio is diverse and strong across multiple platforms, whatever you may think of the quality lol.
 

SanWenYu

Captain
Registered Member
Geological Society of China announced the top 10 scientific and technological breakthroughs and the top 10 geological discoveries in year 2022.

Some of discoveries are economically significant and critical to ensure supply:

- Found signs of a super large titanium reserve in northern China;

- Found 1 billion tons of shale oil reserve in Shangdong;

- Found 2.8 million tons of lithium oxide reserve and 193 million tons of high grade quartzite in Xinjiang;

- Found 100 million tons of high grade iron ore reserve in Hebei, including 4400 tons of associated cobalt minerals;

- Found a heavy rare earth reserve in Jiangxi (notably the amount of reserve is omitted in the announcement);

- Found 8.49 million tons of fluorite reserve in Inner Mongolia;

- Found 16.5 million tons of high grade graphite reserve in Qinghai;

- Found a super large reserve of phosphorite in Yunnan, with confirmed reserve of 1.1 billion tons and potential total reserve of more than 10 billion tons;

- Found a crude oil reserve of 600 million tons in Xinjiang;

- Found a natural gas reserve of 145.9 billion cubic meters in Sichuan;

- Found a high grade coal reserve of 1.4 billion tons in Henan.

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近日,经单位推荐、形式审查、公示、初审、审定等程序,遴选产生了中国地质学会2022年度“地质科技重要进展、地质找矿重大成果”项目,现予以公布。

中国地质学会2022年度地质科技重要进展

(排名不分先后)

一、志留纪特异埋藏化石库揭秘“从鱼到人”演化关键跃升

有颌脊椎动物或有颌类的崛起代表了“从鱼到人”演化史上的一次极为关键的跃升。分子钟推断的有颌类起源与其最早化石之间存在约3000万年的巨大空白,过去从未发现过志留纪晚期以前的完整有颌类化石,使得这一跃升长期笼罩在迷雾之中,著名古脊椎动物学者阿尔弗雷德·罗美尔曾经将其称为“古生物学史上一个顽固存在的重大空白”。中国科学院古脊椎动物与古人类研究所朱敏院士带领的团队在我国重庆秀山志留纪早期(兰多维列世)地层中发现了一个新的,保存大量从头到尾完整有颌类的特异埋藏化石库,将完整保存的有颌类化石的最早记录前推了约1100万年,展示了过去完全未知的4.35亿年前鱼类身体构型,大大填补了“从鱼到人”演化的关键跃升环节。相关研究成果共在《Nature》杂志上发表4篇文章,引起广泛社会关注和重要国际影响。

二、晚前寒武纪表生环境演化及其资源效应研究取得重要进展

由中国地质科学院地质研究所朱祥坤研究员领衔的团队在晚前寒武纪地球表层环境演化及其资源效应研究方面取得重要进展:一是首次发现中元古代早期(15.7亿年前)的氧化事件,颠覆了地球中年期沉寂10亿年的经典认识,揭示了最早大型真核生物演化与地球增氧事件的关系;二是首次完整重建了新元古代雪球地球事件期间海洋的氧化还原状态演化,揭开了真核生物穿越雪球地球的迷雾;三是依据氮同位素与碳同位素耦合波动关系,揭示了新元古代晚期表生环境-营养元素循环-生物演化的内在联系,提出了地球动物的“寒武纪大爆发”的新机制;四是提出了铁锰建造形成的新机制及其与地球表生环境演化的关系。该项研究进展不仅恢复了晚前寒武纪表生环境的演化,也揭示了表生环境演化的资源效应,建立锰碳酸盐矿床直接沉淀和早期成岩转化两种成矿模型。研究成果发表在《Nature Geoscience》等期刊。

三、华北地区本溪组首次发现古风化壳沉积金红石型钛矿

由中国冶金地质总局山东正元地质勘查院张保涛等组成的科研攻关团队,针对我国急需的战略性关键矿产资源“卡脖子”问题,通过科技创新和找矿实践相结合,在华北地区本溪组首次发现古风化壳沉积金红石型钛矿,为新的矿床类型,具有形成特大型金红石型钛等战略性关键资源矿床的潜力,具有重要找矿示范和理论价值。矿层具有金红石品位高、厚度大、层位稳定、埋藏浅的特点,同时共伴生锂、铌钽、镓等多种战略性关键矿产,综合利用价值高。同时,研究团队对成矿地质体源区构造背景和物源开展了研究,为本溪组铝质岩系内金红石等关键矿产资源的富集提供了理论支撑,指示了下一步找矿方向。

四、油气储层表征理论技术创新助力增储上产效果显著

由长江大学张昌民教授领衔的联合攻关团队,首次提出储层叠覆结构概念,创建了两类叠覆式三角洲沉积模式,实现了储层描述地质理论创新;创建储层建模地质知识平台,为油藏地质建模提供了知识约束,推动了大数据技术在储层表征应用;研发了多点地质建模技术和软件,改变了储层表征主流软件被国外垄断、储层建模缺少“中国芯”的被动局面,实现了储层建模理论和技术突破;形成了叠覆砂体解剖技术和工作流程,提出了富砂背景朵体型岩性油气藏成因模式,拓展了岩性油气藏勘探新领域,首次实现了单一流动单元剩余油快速定量评价,为高含水油田剩余油挖潜提供了新技术,增储增产效益显著。这项研究将储层沉积学理论和技术拓展应用于勘探开发全过程,使理论技术的覆盖范围、描述尺度和系统全面性都有了很大提高。

五、济阳坳陷古近系陆相断陷盆地页岩油富集机理及勘探技术取得重大突破

由中国石油化工股份有限公司胜利油田分公司刘惠民领衔的科技攻关团队,针对济阳古近系陆相断陷盆地页岩油富集机理及勘探技术等世界性难题开展攻关,取得了重大理论创新和技术突破。提出了泥页岩的“四要素三端元”岩相划分方案,建立了陆相断陷盆地泥页岩岩相“环带分布”发育模式;明确了“无机孔缝”是济阳坳陷古近系泥页岩主要储集空间,创建了不同岩相“多级孔缝网络”储集模型;建立了泥页岩含油量量化表征方法,证实了有机质Ro≥0.7%页岩油即富集可动;创建了页岩油勘探“储集性、含油性、可动性、可压性”评价体系,形成了“地质-工程甜点”预测及“组合缝网压裂”增产技术。成果指导了济阳坳陷古近系陆相断陷盆地页岩油勘探战略突破,2022年新增页岩油控制储量1.13亿吨、预测储量10.37亿吨,支撑了“胜利济阳陆相断陷湖盆页岩油国家级示范区”建设。

六、河南省地热资源地质系统成因与开发利用研究取得重要进展

由河南省国土空间调查规划院卢磊领衔的地热研究科技攻关团队,近年来持续开展河南省地热资源系统成因及开发利用模式研究。项目团队针对全省浅层地温能、中深层地热资源赋存条件及勘查开发程度,建立了多指标、全方位评估指标体系,首次运用数理统计模型对全省地热资源按构造单元和省辖市行政区域分别进行了全面评价。通过评价研究,查明了全省地热资源勘查程度,摸清了地热资源家底,掌握了地热资源开发潜力模数,同时规划了地热资源勘查-开发区块,提出了地热资源分级利用模式。项目成果能更好促进河南省大力勘查开发地热资源,对全省节能减排、助力绿色发展和推动能源转型具有重要意义。

七、新厘定阿尔金锂铍稀有金属成矿带支撑形成大型新能源产业基地

新疆维吾尔自治区地质矿产勘查开发局第三地质大队牵头新厘定了长230千米,宽10~35千米的阿尔金锂铍稀有金属成矿带。发现评价了吐格曼、瓦石峡南、塔什达坂、阿亚克等9个具有大型资源潜力的锂铍矿床,圈定矿体200余条,提交氧化锂资源量26.22万吨,预测-230米以浅氧化锂资源282万吨,实现了我国无古生代大型伟晶岩锂铍矿床“零”的突破,填补了国内伟晶岩+热液复合型锂铍矿床类型的空白;发现评价托盖里克、康图盖石英岩矿带,估算高品质石英岩1.93亿吨;阿尔金地区锂、硅资源的发现评价,实现了我国锂资源在新区域、新层系的重大找矿突破,支撑了志存锂业源网荷储锂基新材料、特变电工风光储硅基新材料等投资近200亿元的新能源产业落地新疆,产生了极其显著的社会经济效益。

八、喜马拉雅东构造结地质安全风险评价方法支撑服务国家工程规划

由中国地质调查局国家重大工程地质安全风险指挥部殷跃平等组成的科研攻关团队,针对喜马拉雅东构造结地质安全问题,创新发展了强烈活动构造地区重大工程选址安全岛理论,提出了东构造结重大工程区域-地区-场地多尺度精细动态的地壳稳定性评价方法;通过研发深部地质结构、地球物理、地应力、微震探测等深层地质信息获取新技术,揭示了雅鲁藏布江缝合带深部地质结构空间特征与断裂活动性,阐明了现今构造地应力状态、构造错断与工程建设面临的地质安全风险;提出了基于高分遥感、SAR和高原无人机综合探测的超高位冰岩崩灾害风险源识别技术与垂直分区分段监测新方法,揭示了大峡谷巨型堰塞带淹没与溃决洪水的流域性地质灾害链的地质安全风险;成果应用于东构造结重大工程地质安全风险评价与工程选址,为国家进行决策提供了重要的地质科技支撑。

九、我国首套三轴稳定平台航空重力测量系统成功研发并应用

由中国自然资源航空物探遥感中心周锡华教授级高工领衔,与北京自动化控制设备研究所组成的联合攻关团队,创新采用先进的“三轴惯性稳定平台+石英挠性加速度计”研制方案,突破角秒级惯性稳定平台、超低噪声重力传感器等核心技术,攻克微弱信息提取、误差精细消除等关键技术,解决了异常信号弱、干扰大、误差难分离等系列难题,自主研发了三轴稳定平台航空重力仪和数据处理软件,测量精度优于0.6mGal,核心部件全部实现自主设计和国产化。成功应用于青藏高原的2个国家重大工程,首次实现了高海拔地区5°起伏坡度的航空重力测量,填补了重力空白,揭示工程区深部结构,分析了深部地质构造与工程稳定性耦合关系,取得了显著效益。

十、国际首套全海深海底沉积物力学特性原位测试装置研制成功

深海科学研究与资源开发及国防安全,已经进入全海深时代,迫切需要准确获悉深海、海斗深渊浅层沉积物力学性质。中国海洋大学贾永刚教授领衔的研究团队围绕深海超高压力(100 MPa)下海底超软土力学参数精准测试这一国际难题,攻克了深海环境条件下传感器静水压力自平衡滤除、多量程探头智能组合施测、同步传动行程放大贯入、声学正交频分复用和超短基线万米通信定位技术等系列“卡脖子”技术,研发国际首套全海深海底沉积物力学特性原位测试装置,实现了万米深海沉积物土力学性质原位精准测试,贯入阻力测试精度可达0.02 kPa。实际应用于我国大洋多金属结核矿区、稀土矿区、海斗深渊区海底土力学测试,使我国成为首个具有全海深土力学原位测试能力的国家。


中国地质学会2022年度地质找矿重大成果

(排名不分先后)

一、河北省沙河市白涧地区探获高品位优质大型铁矿床

河北省地质矿产勘查开发局第九地质大队在沙河市白涧地区探获高品位大型铁矿床,是目前河北省迄今探明的最大规模矽卡岩型铁矿床,也是国内少有的高品位未开发铁矿。第九地质大队历代技术人员不断创新邯邢式铁矿找矿理论和找矿方法,提炼总结了“五位一体”找矿实践方法,有效指导了邯邢式铁矿深部及外围找矿。该项目提交探明+控制+推断铁矿石资源量10442.7万吨,矿床平均品位全铁(TFe)48.02%,磁性铁(mFe)44.15%,磁铁矿伴生钴4412.8吨,矿床潜在经济价值超千亿元。该铁矿可作为精钢、优质钢原材,其开发利用产生的经济效益和社会效益,对地方经济发展和保障国家能源资源安全具有重要意义。

二、江西省安远县石头坪重稀土矿找矿取得重大突破

由江西省矿产资源保障服务中心王先广为首席专家的团队,在江西南部南岭与武夷山钨锡稀土多金属成矿带交接复合地区,历经5年综合勘查,探获超大型风化壳离子型重稀土矿床。矿区共圈有7个重稀土矿段,其中2022年探获根背矿段推断类全相重稀土资源量XX.XX万吨,平均品位0.088%,浸出相重稀土资源量XX.XX万吨,品位0.060%;构建了离子型稀土“五元一体”找矿模型和“地质测量+风化壳圈定+赣南钻+浅钻+野外快速分析+实验测试”离子型稀土的绿色高效经济适用勘查方法,对离子型重稀土矿床勘查评价具有普适性意义。该勘查成果应用在石头坪矿区新丰等其他矿段和南岭地区的寻乌县、赣县地区,新发现夏湖等多处具有大型规模重稀土找矿潜力,成效十分显著。

三、黑龙江省嫩江市二道坎村银多金属勘探取得重大突破

黑龙江省自然资源调查院和黑龙江省地球物理地球化学勘查院在嫩江市二道坎村银多金属勘探中取得重大突破,共提交银金属量1777吨,平均品位431.10克/吨,银矿规模达到大型、锰矿达到中型。银多金属矿体赋存在上志留统—中泥盆统泥鳅河组海相沉积岩中,与辉绿岩脉密切共生,中酸性次火山岩发育,矿石为石英脉胶结的构造角砾岩,矿床类型属于中低温浅成热液型银矿床。该矿床为黑龙江省首个大型独立银矿床,填补了黑龙江省内独立银矿的空白,更是全国“十三五”期间银矿找矿中储量最大的矿床。通过对矿石加工选冶技术性能及经济概略研究认为,矿山投产后年均利润总额约3.4亿元,可服务近12年,年平均上缴所得税约8400万元,将极大提高地方财政收入,有效带动地区生产总值。

四、胶东大尹格庄超大型金矿床找矿技术方法创新与找矿重大突破

山东省地质矿产勘查开发局第六地质大队和招金矿业股份有限公司大尹格庄金矿联合探获招平断裂带中段规模最大金资源量超百吨的超大型金矿床。该项目厘清了矿体产出规律,解决了什么位置有利于成矿的问题;提出了分段富集定位找矿新方法,解决了到哪里找矿的问题;提出了趋势外推+体含矿率定量预测法,解决了深部有多少资源量的问题。实现了找矿重大突破,延长了矿山服务年限,助推招平成矿带成为千吨级金矿带,丰富完善了胶东地区金成矿理论,对区内金成矿规律及成矿预测起到了积极地推动作用,将在新一轮找矿突破战略行动中发挥引领示范作用,带动区域找矿取得新突破,为打造万吨级“中国山东黄金产业基地”提供有利支撑,为保障国家能源资源安全作出重大贡献。

五、内蒙古自治区四子王旗西里庙矿区探获大型萤石矿

内蒙古地质勘查有限责任公司在四子王旗西里庙矿区探明了一处大型萤石矿床,累计查明萤石矿石量849.3万吨,矿物量468.1万吨,CaF2平均品位55.12%。锰矿石量10.28万吨,Mn平均品位21.95%。萤石矿体产于中二叠统大石寨组二岩段结晶灰岩中,严格受碳酸盐岩层位、层间构造所控制,属碳酸盐岩中的层控(改造)型似层状萤石矿床。该矿床的发现一定程度上改变了我国层控型萤石矿所占比例较小且规模小的现状,为保障国家战略性矿产资源安全做出了积极贡献,带动了地方经济发展,展现了该区萤石找矿工作的良好前景,起到了勘查示范和指导作用。

六、青海格尔木市妥拉海河一带探获超大型石墨矿

中国建筑材料工业地质勘查中心青海总队、青海省地质调查局在格尔木市妥拉海河一带探获青海首个超大型大鳞片晶质石墨矿床,提交石墨矿物推断资源量1656.49万吨,固定碳平均品位4.86%,+100目大鳞片石墨占91.14%,实现了青藏高原浅覆盖区石墨找矿重大突破。矿床赋存于下元古界金水口岩群片麻岩、大理岩中,属层控型区域变质石墨矿床。矿石可选性能优异,选矿回收率达96%以上,精矿固定碳品位达95.26%以上,达到高碳石墨质量标准,具有较高的经济价值,开发利用前景好,可为青海柴达木循环经济实验区的发展提供资源保障,同时将推动地方资源开发和促进相关产业的发展。

七、云南镇雄地区发现亚洲最大规模隐伏单体富磷矿床

云南省地质调查院在镇雄地区发现亚洲最大规模隐伏单体富磷矿床——羊场超大型磷矿,实现深部隐伏磷矿找矿重大突破。羊场磷矿为赋存于下寒武统的浅海相沉积型磷块岩矿床,具“资源储量大、矿石品质优、资源分布集中”的特点。本次探获磷矿石推断资源量11.97亿吨,Ⅰ+Ⅱ品级占比51.87%,预测深部及外围磷矿潜在资源达100亿吨以上,潜在经济价值超万亿元。矿床的发现和评价为云南省打造千亿级全国重要磷化工产业基地奠定了坚实的资源基础,为国家能源资源安全和粮食安全提供了资源保障。

八、准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷二叠系风城组发现逾六亿吨大油区

中国石油新疆油田分公司首次在准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷二叠系风城组古老碱湖烃源岩层获重大发现,新增三级石油地质储量6.56亿吨,开辟了盆地级规模勘探新领域。该成果创新建立了风城组全类型储层孔喉结构下限序列,揭示了常规—非常规油藏全尺度成藏机理;建立了基于“源储耦合”的常规油—致密油—页岩油有序共生的全油气系统成藏模式,落实了2500km2勘探有利区;集成创新了全类型油藏综合勘探技术,风城组试油层成功率由35%提高到91%;指导了6亿吨级源内特大型非常规油藏的新发现。该成果实现了国际上首个全油气系统勘探实例探索成功,丰富和发展了油气系统地质理论,对保障国家能源安全、推动“一带一路”战略实施和新疆地区社会稳定具有重要意义。

九、綦江地区发现我国盆缘复杂构造区首个深层大型整装页岩气田

中国石油化工股份有限公司勘探分公司深层页岩气勘探攻关创新团队发现了我国盆缘复杂构造区首个深层页岩气大气田—綦江页岩气田,首期提交丁山区块页岩气探明地质储量1459.68亿立方米,标志着我国又一个超千亿方大型整装页岩气田诞生。该项目研究发现了深层页岩气“高孔”优质储层发育机理,形成了“超压富气”新认识,有效突破了“甜点”预测技术和工程工艺技术瓶颈,实现了深层页岩气勘探的重大突破,落实了川东南盆缘复杂构造区万亿方富气带,为向埋深大于4500m超深层页岩气拓展奠定了理论与技术基础。綦江页岩气田的发现,对国家绿色低碳发展战略,实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”减排目标,保障国家能源安全具有重要意义。

十、河南省宝丰县贾寨—唐街煤矿区实现煤炭资源找矿重大突破

河南省国土空间调查规划院在宝丰县贾寨—唐街煤炭找矿中取得重大突破,累计查明煤炭资源量143335.2万吨,其中,探明资源量29263.8万吨,控制资源量62708.7万吨,推断资源量51362.7万吨。该项目详细查明了勘查区地层层序、各时代地层岩性及物性特征,详细查明了含煤地层为二叠系山西组和下石盒子组,可采煤层7层,煤类以1/3焦煤、焦煤、肥煤为主,煤质特征为低灰、低硫、高发热量煤,煤质优良,为良好的炼焦及动力用煤,详细查明了矿区水文地质、工程地质、环境地质等开采技术条件。项目勘探成果为后期探转采提供了可靠的地质依据,对矿山企业持续、稳定发展具有重大意义,并为河南煤炭能源基地建设提供了有力的资源接续保障。
 

tphuang

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No CATL? I would buy that and BYD
I see them as having basically peaked in importance already. They are not working on any new tech that I'm not aware of at the moment.

Also, they are not involved in ESS, which is a huge growing industry in China right now.

I do think energy tech/renewable industry as a whole is going to be huge in the future, because we are basically using technology to create energy that we have been digging up all these years. That's why I'm currently big into Longi.

I actually think the growth potential for MingYang is even greater.

Just think about it, this way. The future green hydrogen/ammonia market is said to be > $1 trillion a year. And at some point, that's supposed to replace oil & natural gas in many countries.

The current oil & gas (just non-refined industry) alone is over $4 trillion a year. The largest industry in the world.
The current automotive market is a little under $3 trillion a year, which is largest manufacturing industry in the world.
So, hydrocarbon (and energy as a whole) is the largest, most strategic industry in the world.

So for green hydrogen/ammonia to replace a large portion of oil & gas usage, the equipments (solar, wind turbine + electrolysis) market will be huge. Renewable companies like Longi & MIngYang that have head start in R&D, building supply chain and involving themselves with large scale green H2/NH3 projects will build out huge advantage in market place. And as land in places like Europe & China get overcrowded, countries will try to generate electricity with offshore+floating wind power and that's where MingYang's offshore wind prowess is really going to come into play.

I'm optimistic about BYD not just for PVs, but also its involvement in commercial vehicles, heavy industrial vehicles, electrifying mass transmit, battery production, emerging ESS market, solar market & semiconductors. It's a very well rounded and complete company and understands the value of cost construction & controlling your own supply chain.

Any company that can come out the strongest in China's fierce EV and solar market have to be extremely well run. And same with wind power & green hydrogen market.

These are just larger industries than semiconductors.

Having control of the technology behind how countries produce energy is imo more important than basically anything else. In the hydrocarbon industry, America has the most advanced tech here due to its extensive long involvement in this industry. But in the future when it comes to renewables, green hydrogen, electric motor, hydrogen fuel cell, China will be the leader here and that scares a lot of people in the West.
 

siegecrossbow

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It’s Wumaoing time!

Remember how these cucks used to blabber about how the SeeSeePee will confiscate your wealth? Credit Sussy does it for real. Just get on your knees and blow nice and slow say good things about China and get Xi in a nice enough mood and there is nothing to worry about. Just look at Elon. Verge of bankruptcy and saved by Shanghai Giga factory.
 
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